Card counting, People, and Dealer

R

rabbit215

Member
#1
#1
ok so i decided to go to play some blackjack again and this is just insane......

tc +3 seems like i have an adventage, table full of people, im in the last base, im going for it, 1 hand lost ok secend hand lost 3rd hand lost, 4th hand lost, 5th hand lost .... so i lost over 200 on that, and it was funny cuz most people on the table had a 10 including the dealer and i always had an 7 8 5 first card....

For the frist 4 hours of play i was up $35 then in the last hour everything went wrong, plus there was more people at the table everytime

When there is more people at the table does it affect the count ??
It seems like when i play just against the dealer im doing way better,like im actully little by litte making money, plus i get a lot of bj's when i play just with the dealer, i had two bj's in a row then after one hand i had another 2 bj's in a row on almost neutral count. What do you guys think ?
 
C

Cubbiefann23

Member
#2
#2
Woof woof

I've always done better (it seems) when I play the dealer one on one...I'd like to hear some of the gurus' opines on this...My personal best (worst-really) is... I lost 28 hands in a row---lost 10 in a row, went to another table-lost 10 in a row, went to another table-after losing 8 more in a row, I got in my car and drove home---all single deck games! Some days we are the dog,:laugh: and some days we are the fire hydrant...:laugh:
 
itakeyourmoney

itakeyourmoney

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
Well I'm certainly not a guru, but what you're experiencing is just variance. It's certainly possible to lose several hands in a row (even in high counts) -- the higher the count gets the odds of you winning increase but it's never a guarantee.

As for playing heads up vs. with players, you will generally do better with heads up because when you reach high counts they will last longer allowing you to play more hands in the high count. With other players there are a lot more cards are being used up and therefore the TC is approaching 0 more quickly. Remember, the deck is always moving (either up or down) towards a TC of 0 over time.
 
creeping panther

creeping panther

Banned
#4
#4
Cubbie

Cubbiefann23 said:
I've always done better (it seems) when I play the dealer one on one...I'd like to hear some of the gurus' opines on this...My personal best (worst-really) is... I lost 28 hands in a row---lost 10 in a row, went to another table-lost 10 in a row, went to another table-after losing 8 more in a row, I got in my car and drove home---all single deck games! Some days we are the dog,:laugh: and some days we are the fire hydrant...:laugh:
Click to expand...
I have no use for single deckers,,,1st choice DD, next 4d.:)

CP
 
psyduck

psyduck

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
itakeyourmoney said:
As for playing heads up vs. with players, you will generally do better with heads up because when you reach high counts they will last longer allowing you to play more hands in the high count. With other players there are a lot more cards are being used up and therefore the TC is approaching 0 more quickly. Remember, the deck is always moving (either up or down) towards a TC of 0 over time.
Click to expand...
If you play all, sure the high count will last longer if you are the only player. But in order to create that high count, you will have to eat all the small cards first. If you play all, I think the only good thing for heads-up is you play more hands/hour than when you have more players.
 
muppet

muppet

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
itakeyourmoney said:
Remember, the deck is always moving (either up or down) towards a TC of 0 over time.
Click to expand...
actually, that isn't the case. this can best be shown with an example.

looking at a level 1 count, a card fits into one of these categories: high, low, or neutral. let's say there's 4 cards left in a single deck game: 7 high cards and 4 low cards, and 2 neutral cards.

current RC = +3.
current TC = (+3) / (13/52) = +12

this is a nice TC. let's deal a card and see what happens to the RC and TC. one of three things can happen:

1) a high card is dealt. RC = +2. TC = (+2)/(12/52) ~= +8.66666666666
2) a neutral card is dealt. RC = +3. TC = (+3)/(12/52) = +13
3) a low card is dealt. RC = +4. TC = (+4)/(12/52) ~= 17.33333333333

the likelihood of #1 happening is 7/13.
the likelihood of #2 happening is 2/13.
the likelihood of #3 happening is 4/13.

now we 'weight' our outcomes of our 3 scenarios by multiplying each of the TC's in each with their respective chance of occuring, and then sum the result:

expected TC after 1 card dealt = 8.666(7/13) + 13(2/13) + 17.333(4/13) = 4.666 + 2 + 5.333 = +11.999

if you were to perform this experiment without rounding, you'd see that the expected TC would be exactly +12, matching the TC before a card was dealt.
 
itakeyourmoney

itakeyourmoney

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
muppet said:
actually, that isn't the case. this can best be shown with an example.

looking at a level 1 count, a card fits into one of these categories: high, low, or neutral. let's say there's 4 cards left in a single deck game: 7 high cards and 4 low cards, and 2 neutral cards.

current RC = +3.
current TC = (+3) / (13/52) = +12

this is a nice TC. let's deal a card and see what happens to the RC and TC. one of three things can happen:

1) a high card is dealt. RC = +2. TC = (+2)/(12/52) ~= +8.66666666666
2) a neutral card is dealt. RC = +3. TC = (+3)/(12/52) = +13
3) a low card is dealt. RC = +4. TC = (+4)/(12/52) ~= 17.33333333333

the likelihood of #1 happening is 7/13.
the likelihood of #2 happening is 2/13.
the likelihood of #3 happening is 4/13.

now we 'weight' our outcomes of our 3 scenarios by multiplying each of the TC's in each with their respective chance of occuring, and then sum the result:

expected TC after 1 card dealt = 8.666(7/13) + 13(2/13) + 17.333(4/13) = 4.666 + 2 + 5.333 = +11.999

if you were to perform this experiment without rounding, you'd see that the expected TC would be exactly +12, matching the TC before a card was dealt.
Click to expand...
But if you were to do this with the next 6 cards (as would be the case with 3 extra players at the table) would the results be the same? My point was simply that the more people there are playing the more cards are used. And the more cards that are the used the more likely the TC will move towards 0. And if you draw cards until the end of the deck (even though you wouldn't) the count would return to 0 (assuming a balanced count).

Perhaps I could've worded it better before, but I don't believe I was wrong.
 
N

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
itakeyourmoney said:
But if you were to do this with the next 6 cards (as would be the case with 3 extra players at the table) would the results be the same? My point was simply that the more people there are playing the more cards are used. And the more cards that are the used the more likely the TC will move towards 0. And if you draw cards until the end of the deck (even though you wouldn't) the count would return to 0 (assuming a balanced count).

Perhaps I could've worded it better before, but I don't believe I was wrong.
Click to expand...
Now I see what you mean. As muppet pointed out, that (common) belief is incorrect. The truth is that the expected true count after a round is equal to the true count before the round. This is referred to as the True Count Theorem (Archive copy).
 
C

Cubbiefann23

Member
#10
#10
Cp

If I'm playing a DD game, playing hi-lo, and after three hands I got plus 6--is the true count really plus three?...it would be plus 6 in a SD, but it can't be the same if less than a quarter of the cards have been dealt with two decks. A four deck game I'm thinking it's almost an even count...
 
itakeyourmoney

itakeyourmoney

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Nynefingers said:
Now I see what you mean. As muppet pointed out, that (common) belief is incorrect. The truth is that the expected true count after a round is equal to the true count before the round. This is referred to as the True Count Theorem (Archive copy).
Click to expand...
To both you and Muppet, this is very interesting. I did not know this before.

Cubbiefann23 said:
If I'm playing a DD game, playing hi-lo, and after three hands I got plus 6--is the true count really plus three?...it would be plus 6 in a SD, but it can't be the same if less than a quarter of the cards have been dealt with two decks. A four deck game I'm thinking it's almost an even count...
Click to expand...
You divide the running count:

RC = HIGH CARDS (you've seen) - LOW CARDS (you've seen)

and then divide that by the number of remaining decks left to be dealt.

True Count = RC / remaining decks


So in your example (RC is +6 with a quarter deck gone):

True Count = 6/1.75 = 3.42


The True Count is what you base your bets on (with most systems anyway).
 
SleightOfHand

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
itakeyourmoney said:
To both you and Muppet, this is very interesting. I did not know this before.



You divide the running count:

RC = HIGH CARDS (you've seen) - LOW CARDS (you've seen)

and then divide that by the number of remaining decks left to be dealt.

True Count = RC / remaining decks


So in your example (RC is +6 with a quarter deck gone):

True Count = 6/1.75 = 3.42


The True Count is what you base your bets on (with most systems anyway).
Click to expand...
Yea, remember that the RC tends to approach 0 as you play, not the TC. Kind of weird, but they are not the same. The TC (as long as you don't run out of cards) tends to stay the same.
 
muppet

muppet

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
itakeyourmoney said:
And if you draw cards until the end of the deck (even though you wouldn't) the count would return to 0 (assuming a balanced count).
Click to expand...
incidentally, a few months ago i was dealt 100% of a single deck. i was quite shocked
 
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