Card counting

[tedloc]

Just read an interesting piece:http://www.saliu.com/bbs/messages/274.html
Has a good point. You're at 3rd base with four other players in the game when the count gets very favorable. You raise your bet accordingly and it's possible that the next 10 cards out of the shoe are 10's. There goes the favorable count before you get your second card. Now what?

 

[JJcoolL830]

favorable counts

Think about the reverse logic... what if you have a very favorable count and even more low cards intially come out of the shoe so now you have an even more favorable count before your upcards are given to you.

The idea is that before your hand is dealt, you have a probablity of receiving any number of combinations of cards that are left in the deck, to insist that the fella sitting on 1st base has a better probability of receiving those favorable cards is simply incorrect.

 

[KenSmith]

The article linked in the first post is complete bunk. Don't believe a word of it.

 

[tedloc]

I agree but...

Think about the reverse logic... what if you have a very favorable count and even more low cards intially come out of the shoe so now you have an even more favorable count before your upcards are given to you.

The idea is that before your hand is dealt, you have a probablity of receiving any number of combinations of cards that are left in the deck, to insist that the fella sitting on 1st base has a better probability of receiving those favorable cards is simply incorrect.

I fully agree that any number of combinations can come out. My question is why should I expect to be the one to get them. I think the point the author was making is that even with a favorable count, by the time you get your two cards it may be long gone.

 

[tedloc]

Can you tell me what is wrong?

The article linked in the first post is complete bunk. Don't believe a word of it.

First of all, I am not saying this article is the gospel. I wanted opinions that were backed up by some facts. If it is BUNK can you sight any examples? I am a very knowledgabel player and have been playing for a long time. I have certainly seen this scenearo play out on the table. Please tell me what is wrong with his hypothesis? Isn't it possible that a very positive count will turn negative before you get your second card? Should I sit at first base, so as to get my two cards before the count runs dry?
Ted

 

[tedloc]

I read the article

http://renzey.casinocitytimes.com/article/why-do-blackjack-players-blame-others-when-they-lose-16316

I have read all of renzey's articles. they are very helpful. But... this article deals with the false assumption that novice players will screw up the cards and ruin your possibility of winning. We all know that is not true.
The article that I wanted input on had the premise that, when the count is in your favor, it could turn negative before you get you second card. Since this is true, why do we raise our bet in anticipation. I think the author of my quoted article implies that you should find a game that is just you and the dealer.

 

[LeonShuffle]

Of course it COULD happen. The count's high, you're at third base, all the other players get the 20's and BJs (bringing the count down) and you get a stiff hand. So what??!! That's part of playing blackjack. It could also be low and everyone (but you) gets low cards bringing it back up. You still play out your hand according to what the count is when it's your turn.

 

[Canceler]

Sitting at first base won't help. Your chances of getting the crappy cards while everyone else gets good ones are the same there as anywhere else.

Seems like you're looking for a sure thing. If you're not willing to gamble, maybe blackjack isn't something you should be doing.