Considering Coloring up for the last time

[Ferretnparrot]

So i started my carreer about two years ago when i first started learning to coutn and practicing in preperation of turning 21. Its been a long road, and initially my goal was to make 10g and quit, of coarse i thought that woudl happen in like a few weeks, but it didnt. Iv never really had a sufficient bankroll to play, i started with 600 playing 5-40 dollars got lucky and started playing 10-100, went all the way up to 8k in winnings then started playing 25-200 crashed down to only +1500 for my hundreds of hours i took a break at this points and thought about calling it quits but didnt a few months later i had more money and started playing 15-150, untilll i got to 10100, then i started playing 25-250 and got raped all the way down to 3200 when i started playing 15-150 again and i have untill today, and now iv crossed my 10g threshold with a total winnings of 10,600$

Im well aware that iv been overbetting my bankroll but i do it because i want to be playing a winning game and if im spending 40$ on gas 3$ on tolls and 15$ on parking every trip where i dedicate 10 hours of my time, i better be yeilding an hourly expectation worth my while.

Now im to the point where i see too options, assessing my new bankroll and playing more, except this time without the liekly 20-30% ror i was playing with before or retiring with my 10600$ in winnings, my 32 inch lcd, my suveneir comp cards with fake names, and all the jewelry i snagged form the pawn shops:eyepatch:

The game is getting really boring too, and idk if i could do it forever. Its getting hard to act excited when im really not that excited..as in "oh... look the dealer has 21 what are the odds?"

I think id like to ask for opinions and motivation in either direction.

 

[zengrifter]

Im well aware that iv been overbetting my bankroll but i do it because i want to be playing a winning game

Interesting logic. zg

 

[Ferretnparrot]

Interesting logic. zg

By bankroll i mean cash on hand, i play assuming that in some time in the future that cash would be replaced, so in a sense i wasnt ovebetting.
Its outside the box but i think its totally sound in funtionality.

and dude you could have a ror of zero percent if that were even possible but if your only making x dollars per hour avaerage and you spending (y>1)x per hour on cost your new ror is 100%, you totally HAVE to be betting more than your travel cost to make a profit and theres no avgoiding that. IF your ror is less that 50% yoru playign a winning game.

Dont trash my logic zg

 

[shadroch]

Come up with some logic and maybe you won't get trashed.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Overbetting is Horrible!!!!!!!

If you overbet a lot you will go broke!!!!!!
If you overbet moderately you will not make any money!!!!!!!!!
If you overbet a little you are taking on to much risk vs return.

Would you bet $500 in order to win a penny?
So why are you overbetting???????????

You now have a modest bankroll. Don't waste it!!!!!!!!!!

You mention your expenses are about $60 per trip.
Set aside $60 for each trip.
Bet the rest of your funds appropriately.

Zen questioned your thinking and you got defensive. Well I believe now Zen, Shadrock and now myself have questioned your thinking. You ask for help and opinions, don't get defensive when it is given.

 

[ihate17]

I think I understand your thinking but would not call it logic

At 21 or 22 years old, I certainly understand that you are immortal, unbeatable and that certainly any bankroll you presently have should be highly replenishable in the future. You should understand that you operated on the positive side of the variance curve while you played and that bit of luck helped you.
Your thinking, I believe Mr Spock would say is illogical but Dr Spock might say is due to your not fully maturing yet.

Nevertheless; how you handle risk at age 22 does not have to be even close to same way one handles risk at 50 or 60 or whatever. This has little to do with ROR and just time and common sense. At over 60 a serious financial goof by me could be devistating because the time to make it up is not there when compared to yourself. You could blow a couple of bankrolls and still have plenty of time to turn things around.
Everyone's situation is different, so as I said, I understand that in your situation you have time on your side and can take more risk, still though understandable is not necessarily logical.

ihate17

 

[InPlay]

What would you expect from somebody who works at a 7/11 store. :laugh:

 

[EasyRhino]

Man, two grand is like a fortune in twenty-year-old money. I would have played a lot more conservative.

And I'd say that you were pretty much always overbetting, you did indeed get lucky by not completely busting out at any point. And there's a semi-valid "hail mary" aspect to the whole thing, where maybe you could get your bankroll to a point where it's no longer overbet... but the odds are you'd have to replenish, perhaps multiple times.

I mean, with $150 max bet, you could easily have a relatively unbroken string of +-$7k.

It sounds like you're playing in AC. So you probably aren't getting in a lot of hands/hour if you're backcounting (and hopefully you're not doing play-all). To the aggregate variance you've experience so far might still be fairly limited.

As for advice, I guess you have three options:
1) Drop bets to max < $100, to be at least more appropriate bankrollwise
2) Keep going for it.
3) Cash out.

I have no opinion.

 

[moo321]

I'm not gonna jump down your throat, but I'm gonna give you some advice. Go, get a job, or find someone to back you, so that you can play at a high enough level to make it work. You can pull $15 an hour delivering pizzas easy, and write off your mileage so it's more like $20. Get $10k together, and come back with a plan.

Also, it sounds like you're not playing with much of an edge. If you're playing shoes, even with $10k, you should ONLY be back-counting. ONLY. Not mostly, but ONLY. Leave all negative counts, don't jump in before you should.

Grind your 1.5 units an hour out, don't play more than an hour or two at any one place, and slowly build a bank. Build your money up slowly, and conservatively, and it will stay with you.

 

[InPlay]

First of all he has a job at the 7/11 store. The $10,000 he won is a years worth of working at the 7/11 store. Just like any young dude its burning a hole in his pocket. Sooner or later his balls will be fried. :cry:

 

[Dyepaintball12]

This forum can be a mean place

 

[Knox]

If you don't enjoy the game u shouldn't play it.

 

[InPlay]

This forum can be a mean place

What really gets me are all the made up stories. This is a blackjack forum not Penthouse or Hustler Forum. Keep it real !

 

[moo321]

This forum can be a mean place

No ****. Why does everyone get so pissy with people?

 

[jack.jackson]

No ****. Why does everyone get so pissy with people?

Reputation, and a self-projecting Image to be Intelligent. These message Boards are extremely sensitive to Insults. Do not judge.

 

[Mimosine]

Also, it sounds like you're not playing with much of an edge. If you're playing shoes, even with $10k, you should ONLY be back-counting. ONLY. Not mostly, but ONLY. Leave all negative counts, don't jump in before you should.

Grind your 1.5 units an hour out, don't play more than an hour or two at any one place, and slowly build a bank. Build your money up slowly, and conservatively, and it will stay with you.

what moo said.

plus, as a general Rule Of Thumb your max bet should be backed by 100 times that bet in the form of your total bankroll.

e.g. $100 max bet, $10,000 in the bank.

And that is a "general rule." If you are grossly exceeding this rule then your ROR is VERY HIGH. ROR isn't a joke.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

First of all he has a job at the 7/11 store. The $10,000 he won is a years worth of working at the 7/11 store. Just like any young dude its burning a hole in his pocket. Sooner or later his balls will be fried. :cry:

I work on houses not in a 7/11 i have no idea where you pulled that notion from

Yeah i guess to clarify i was using what you would call the hail mary aproach with a couple thousand dollar bank, but now that i have ten grand i want to either reasess my risk or retire if my betting level isnt enough to compensate for travel AND leave enough left over to make more than i would at a regular job

I also have possibly misguided ideas of how ror works, in my opinion, i dont think its generally possible to have a ror of more than 50% if you playing a winning game, especially when you try to combine that idea with a replienishable bankroll, i mean if you play 100 consecutive 1000 dollar bankrolls how could you lose 60% of them if your playing a winning game?

I also play a more aggressive betting scheme that typically doesnt look like most bet ramps, so the ror number i have seen typically for max bets of 150 would be lower than what mine probibly is. I do this because i understand that there is a rareity of high counts in shoe games so i put more money out more often to help ensure that i am weighing toward more advantage.

typically i bet like this
-<-0.5-0
-0.5---(0.5 units)1 unit every other hand
0------1 unit
1------2 hands 1.5 unit average
2------2 hand 6 unit
3------2 hand 9 unit avg
4+-----2 hand 10 unit

with a 15 $ unit i guestimated that this would put me in the 35/hr range which is what i need. I dont have sim software and i really dont know what im expecting but now is the time i need to look at it.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

If i have to spend 60 dollars on a trip and i have to bet enough to make more than 60 dollars on average
I dont really care what my chance of failure is because my available fund are what they are and i cant change that. I do not see any way it would be anything other than a gamble of time that is favorable for me even if only by a small percent. Correct me if im wrong and please explain to me how it is possible to have a ror greater than 50% if your playing a game at an advantage.

Enagaging in blackjack was my decision and at the time i was willing to lose the measly 600 dollars i initially invested, because it was going to be fun. I mean for real how many kids my age have even seen a real 1000$ chip yet alone owned one?
The whole adventure was a very fun one, and the first time i was approached and somebody said "your too good for us" which were his exact words it made me very happy as since day one i dreamed of being the guy that beat the casino.

I think a more relevant question would be would i risk 600 dollars to win 700 dollars 51% of the time when it only cost me 60 and i could have fun doing it.

I do think your right and that i owe zg an appology, i think i just took your one line two word response initially as dismissive and negetive, I was kinda expecting critisism for some reason, and thats the way it came off to me when i saw it. So im sry zg if you were trying to be supportive.

Ferret

 

[moo321]

I would also recommend that, if it costs $60 to make a trip, you stay overnight, or for several days and get more hours per $ of expense. Can you get room comps on a weeknight?

 

[Brock Windsor]

Correct me if im wrong and please explain to me how it is possible to have a ror greater than 50% if your playing a game at an advantage.

If your sample size is too small short term flux will wipe you out, you have to make it to the long run to win. As an extreme example suppose you are going to bet 10% of your bankroll every time you have a 1% advantage....even if you re-size your BR after each hand lose 10 hands more than you win in a shoe and your 10K BR is now less than 3500....same thing happens next shoe and now you have a $1220 BR...happens again your BR is $425...and happens for a 4th shoe and your BR is now $150. This is how overbetting wipes you out. A good statistics textbook or some searching online will show you how to make the calculations...but the math has all been done. If you want a roller coaster bet full kelly, never more. Realisitcally betting even half kelly is hard enough to ride out. Aside from that if you are not enjoying the game, don't play. Find a new challenge.
BW