Controversial basic strategy spots

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
6 decks, hit soft 17...

1. Hard 11 vs A....hit or double?

2. 9-9 vs 7...split or stand

3. A7 vs 2....stand or double

4. A8 vs 6.....stand or double

WizardOfOdds says choose 2nd option for all spots but have seen different play suggestions.....any insight?
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
Of course Wizard is correct. Isn't he usually? Well at least with math. ;)

And while by the math it is correct (depending on exact rules), I personally take into consideration more than just math because my top priority is longevity and my circumstance of playing a 'regular' rotation of games.

Specifically to these plays, I really dislike #4. While basic strategy for most games I play, it can and will draw a disproportionate attention from both other players and dealer/pit. So I usually back this play off from BS a bit to tc +2 or so.
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
KewlJ said:
Of course Wizard is correct. Isn't he usually? Well at least with math. ;)

And while by the math it is correct (depending on exact rules), I personally take into consideration more than just math because my top priority is longevity and my circumstance of playing a 'regular' rotation of games.

Specifically to these plays, I really dislike #4. While basic strategy for most games I play, it can and will draw a disproportionate attention from both other players and dealer/pit. So I usually back this play off from BS a bit to tc +2 or so.
I witnessed a red chipper get backed off because of #4 and he wasn't counting. He went kicking and screaming while waving a basic strategy card. Too soon to elaborate further.
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
All of the points regarding subtle nuances are well taken. However the OP was asking about basic strategy and, from the way the question was worded, it seems that he may have seen some basic strategy cards which differed. That's why I was careful to say that the wizard is correct for the rules that were stated.

A more complete answer from me would have pointed out that basic strategy does change for different rules. In particular, S17 would change 3 of the 4 hands that he asked about.

And in the spirit of teaching a man to fish:

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-basic-strategy-engine/
 

JohnCrover

Banned
The more controversial basic strategy plays, in my opinion, are 12 vs 4 and 17 vs A.
Now that we're on the topic anyone want to chime in with 99 vs 7 indexes for splitting? 6D, h17, DAS.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
JohnCrover said:
The more controversial basic strategy plays, in my opinion, are 12 vs 4 and 17 vs A.
Now that we're on the topic anyone want to chime in with 99 vs 7 indexes for splitting? 6D, h17, DAS.
What is your definition of a "controversial BS play"?

Indices you asked for are +3 and +1 or +2 (I've seen both, but prefer +2).

Don
 
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SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
gronbog said:
All of the points regarding subtle nuances are well taken. However the OP was asking about basic strategy and, from the way the question was worded, it seems that he may have seen some basic strategy cards which differed. That's why I was careful to say that the wizard is correct for the rules that were stated.

A more complete answer from me would have pointed out that basic strategy does change for different rules. In particular, S17 would change 3 of the 4 hands that he asked about.

And in the spirit of teaching a man to fish:

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackjack-basic-strategy-engine/
what would the rules need to be to change 1 and 2?
 

Dog Hand

Well-Known Member
SlyPooch said:
6 decks, hit soft 17...

1. Hard 11 vs A....hit or double?

2. 9-9 vs 7...split or stand
SlyPooch said:
what would the rules need to be to change 1 and 2?
SlyPooch,

For 1, changing from H17 to S17 would flip the BS play from double to hit.

For 2, changing from BJ to Free Bet BJ would flip the BS play from stand to split: see https://wizardofodds.com/games/free-bet-blackjack/

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
 

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
Dog Hand said:
LC Larry,

The Wizard of Odds (see

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/9/6ds17r4/ for details)

gives these EV's for A,8 vs. 6 for 6D, S17:

EVS = 0.493924, EVD = 0.480266

So, the penalty for always doubling here is 0.013658, or a bit over 1.36%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
So if the house Edge is 0.66% with perfect basic strategy, are you telling me that misplaying this single situation would increase that house Edge up to 2.02%?
 

gronbog

Well-Known Member
No. You need to multiply the 1.36% by the frequency at which A,8 vs 6 occurs and then add that to the house edge. I don't have that frequency handy.
 

bjo32

Well-Known Member
I agree with Kj and paymypush. No.4 can generate heat so I avoid it for the most part. I no longer do it at my local casinos after I had a pit boss come over and tell me he was going to watch me more after I did this play and won with my max bet. I got a 10 and the dealer busted with a 10. It wasn’t a good look.

JohnClover the reason no.4 will generate more heat than the index play for 12 vs 4 is because most casinos don’t care much what you do with your minimum bet. And this is the only time the 12 vs 4 or 17 vs ace index play comes into play. They care more about what you’re doing with your bigger bets. While most casino people don’t know basic strategy, many do know that when the count is rich in high cards, a card counter will bet more, double more and split more. In my case, it didn’t look good having the pit boss watching my play and seeing a bunch of 10s come out when I doubled my soft 19. Most ploppies don’t do this. Heck, most of them don’t even double their soft 18.

For sake of transparency since many APs care more about who the poster is, rather than the content of the post, I’m dbs and bob21. Sure wish I had used the same handle on all these different forums, but it is what it is.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
bjo32 said:
I agree with Kj and paymypush. ....I’m dbs and bob21.
Then I am changing my position. Whatever it is I said, now mark me down as the opposite.:oops:
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
gronbog said:
No. You need to multiply the 1.36% by the frequency at which A,8 vs 6 occurs and then add that to the house edge. I don't have that frequency handy.
See the p. 99 charts of BJA3. If flat betting $100 per hand, 100 hands per hour, the misplay would cost you 11 cents!!

Don
 

bjo32

Well-Known Member
KewlJ said:
Then I am changing my position. Whatever it is I said, now mark me down as the opposite.:oops:
That’s a good one Kj, made me laugh. I do think I’m the unique AP that cares more about content than who the poster is.
 

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
bjo32 said:
That’s a good one Kj, made me laugh. I do think I’m the unique AP that cares more about content than who the poster is.
For the record, i am not working on behalf of the casinos, nor the government or illuminati and i was not the 2nd gunman on the grassy knoll back in '63
 

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
DSchles said:
See the p. 99 charts of BJA3. If flat betting $100 per hand, 100 hands per hour, the misplay would cost you 11 cents!!

Don
so 0.6600% house edge goes to 0.6611%. Right?
 

Dog Hand

Well-Known Member
SlyPooch said:
so 0.6600% house edge goes to 0.6611%. Right?
SlyPooch,

Close enough!

In a 6D game, the probability of being dealt A,8 (or, equivalently, 8,A) vs. 6 is 2*24*24*24/(312*311*310), or 0.0009191513... In other words, you'll get this hand a little over 9 times per 10,000 rounds. Each time you DD rather than stand, it costs you an average of 0.013658 bets, as I explained earlier in the thread. Thus, always doubling A,8 vs. 6 in a 6D, S17 game will increase the house edge by 0.013658*0.0009191513 = 0.0000125537, or 0.00125537%, so if the normal house edge is 0.66%, the new house edge will soar to 0.66125537%.

Hope this helps to teach an old dog a new trick!

Dog Hand
 
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