Counter BS - Forget the I-18?
- Thread starter xengrifter
- Start date
I am open to seeing some fresh sim-comparisons, but I believe that CBS will achieve 97% of the I-18 value in most if not all games.
The suggestion that it only achieves 87.5% of I-18 sounds off to me, based on simulations I have seen.
And, a 1-16 play-all six-deck game would not be an appropriate comparison, in any event. A better comparison would be a 1-6 6 deck wong-in...
... Or better still, see how they match up SCORE wise.
The suggestion that it only achieves 87.5% of I-18 sounds off to me, based on simulations I have seen.
And, a 1-16 play-all six-deck game would not be an appropriate comparison, in any event. A better comparison would be a 1-6 6 deck wong-in...
... Or better still, see how they match up SCORE wise.
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Absolutely it would, especially if there is no other casino in close proximity to play at. Also be combining that with small buy in's, hopefully, you have a good pen game with great rules, and are using aggressive Wong outs, while also using the I 16 and fab four, along with more other index plays. Periodically play two hands when there is heavy action going on throughout the pit, especially if you are betting heavy green or black yourself (red bettors can get away with this easier). Of course, only at the right times telling the other person playing that you want to change the flow, say after a lost hand. Do not make a session or a trip at the same casino memorable which is interpretational to different people.
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There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that CBS will achieve 97% of the SCORE of I18. I have the full paper from Marcus with all the charts and statistics, but I have no way to attach that here. Instead, I have the URL of a similar paper from MathProf, which you may find enlightening. Obviously, he comes to the same conclusions that I do, but using a different count. canjarrm.faculty.udmercy.edu › CBS-Review
It is important to note that SCORE squares the e.v. in the numerator, and that Marcus found CBS e.v. to be 0.72%, while I18 was 0.81%. If you square the ratio, you get 1.266, suggesting that, under his conditions in the paper, I18 out-SCOREs CBS by 26.6%.
To me, it shows a poor understanding of the mathematics of the concept to make the unfounded claims you are making. Someone with a good intuition for the game would know that, even without doing sims, what you are suggesting makes no sense at all.
Don
It is important to note that SCORE squares the e.v. in the numerator, and that Marcus found CBS e.v. to be 0.72%, while I18 was 0.81%. If you square the ratio, you get 1.266, suggesting that, under his conditions in the paper, I18 out-SCOREs CBS by 26.6%.
To me, it shows a poor understanding of the mathematics of the concept to make the unfounded claims you are making. Someone with a good intuition for the game would know that, even without doing sims, what you are suggesting makes no sense at all.
Don
Huh I tell ya, I get no respect at all!
If Marcus ran his SIM on StickySoft 678 maybe the SIM was flawed?
Let us prevail upon someone here who is SIM savvy to run some fresh comparison...
... Anyone except that Looney tune sim-master guy that KJ always harps about.
If I am proven wrong, I have to call like 300 novice card counters and tell them forget what I told you - use the I-18 and do not listen to me!
If Marcus ran his SIM on StickySoft 678 maybe the SIM was flawed?
Let us prevail upon someone here who is SIM savvy to run some fresh comparison...
... Anyone except that Looney tune sim-master guy that KJ always harps about.
If I am proven wrong, I have to call like 300 novice card counters and tell them forget what I told you - use the I-18 and do not listen to me!
Here's a working link: http://canjarrm.faculty.udmercy.edu/CBS-Review.pdf
In order to bottom-line this subject ...
... If a computer simulation shows that CBS performs at 90% value of I-18, then it is safe to assume that novice card counters using I-18 will inject enough inaccuracy in their playing decisions that any advantage to using the top 20 or so indexes will be negated - they are simply working harder (and sloppier) to achieve the same real-world result.
... Thus novice card counters, who may never go beyond the top 20 or so indices, are well advised to use CBS instead. For many or most aspirants who fall in this category their overall play would likely improve.
... If a computer simulation shows that CBS performs at 90% value of I-18, then it is safe to assume that novice card counters using I-18 will inject enough inaccuracy in their playing decisions that any advantage to using the top 20 or so indexes will be negated - they are simply working harder (and sloppier) to achieve the same real-world result.
... Thus novice card counters, who may never go beyond the top 20 or so indices, are well advised to use CBS instead. For many or most aspirants who fall in this category their overall play would likely improve.
Should have quit when you were ahead.
Talk about novice card counters, who the hell tries to make a living in today's times playing blackjack with $52 K? Get a job as you been playing on borrowed time. With a job, you could hopefully reinvest 100% of any blackjack earnings into your playing bank. At the very least having a job would relieve a lot of pressure or stress.
Talk about novice card counters, who the hell tries to make a living in today's times playing blackjack with $52 K? Get a job as you been playing on borrowed time. With a job, you could hopefully reinvest 100% of any blackjack earnings into your playing bank. At the very least having a job would relieve a lot of pressure or stress.
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Are you talking about ZenKing? 
Not speaking specifically about anybody....In my opinion 50k is enough BR to begin playing for a living under the right circumstances and have a reasonable chance at success, as opposed to the Hail Mary (lucky as shit) approach that a number of us used to get started.
Those circumstances would include being a younger, single guy (or gal) with minimal obligations. No mortgage. No car payment. No spouse (huge drain). No Kids.
You also would need to be willing to live as cheaply as possible until you could grow your bankroll. Growing bankroll (to 100k minimum) would have be TOP priority.
So initially, you could start out playing about 1/2 Kelly. That would be a Max bet in the $250 range. 1/2 Kelly is more risk that an established professional player should accept. AND it will result in some swings (variance) that could make an inexperienced player who isn't used to such swings uncomfortable.
And then you are going to have to really grind away and put in some hours and accumulate rounds and EV. You have got to have significantly more EV than your living expenses....that is the only way your bankroll can grow to where it needs to be. All the time you will need to put in is another reason why it is probably best for a single person. It can be tough on a relashionship.
If all this seems like too much risk and stress, there is an alternative. That would be to at least have a part-time income to cover at least some of the expenses. That should speed up and lower stress on this growing bankroll period.
Not speaking specifically about anybody....In my opinion 50k is enough BR to begin playing for a living under the right circumstances and have a reasonable chance at success, as opposed to the Hail Mary (lucky as shit) approach that a number of us used to get started.
Those circumstances would include being a younger, single guy (or gal) with minimal obligations. No mortgage. No car payment. No spouse (huge drain
). No Kids.You also would need to be willing to live as cheaply as possible until you could grow your bankroll. Growing bankroll (to 100k minimum) would have be TOP priority.
So initially, you could start out playing about 1/2 Kelly. That would be a Max bet in the $250 range. 1/2 Kelly is more risk that an established professional player should accept. AND it will result in some swings (variance) that could make an inexperienced player who isn't used to such swings uncomfortable.
And then you are going to have to really grind away and put in some hours and accumulate rounds and EV. You have got to have significantly more EV than your living expenses....that is the only way your bankroll can grow to where it needs to be. All the time you will need to put in is another reason why it is probably best for a single person. It can be tough on a relashionship.
If all this seems like too much risk and stress, there is an alternative. That would be to at least have a part-time income to cover at least some of the expenses. That should speed up and lower stress on this growing bankroll period.
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