Cover for hole carding

[MangoJ]

What would be an appropriate cover for holecarding ?
I guess casinos would first look for counters, where bet spreads and mid-shoe entry and exits are a first hint, especially when correlated to the count.
So flat betting full shoes might be appropriate.
But how to cover for strategy decisions ? Surrendering or hitting hard 19 and hitting 20 is obviously not an option (although I have seen someone doubling hard 19...)

Hence, how much advantage is left when restricting to rather-stupid-than-crazy decisions while flat betting ?

 

[moo321]

Depends on how reliable the read is. If it's not good, you can't give away too much. If it's 100%, you can just make good insurance decisions and slaughter them. (note: I'm not recommending only taking insurance, I'm just giving some idea of the edge).

Generally, it's more suspicious to do something against a strong upcard, vs. a low. Doubling 8 vs. 6 isn't a big deal. Doubling 8 vs. 10 is a big deal.

Splitting (besides tens) usually doesn't look suspicious. Makes you look like a moron splitting 2's against a ten, but ploppies do that.

You can double 10 and 11 vs. strong upcards, but be careful doubling nine.

Hitting hard 17 is very silly, and kills more games than anything else. It can MAYBE be done against an 18 (where the gain is greatest) if you don't care about protecting the game that much. Hitting hard 18 or higher is moronic and should never be done.

"Improper" use of surrender is fine. Surrendering stiffs against a hard 19 or 20 is fine. Realize that, although surrender is worth maybe .3% to a counter, it's worth like 5% in this situation. It's huge, and it lets you be even less blatant while retaining a strong edge.

 

[Sucker]

Very good advice from Moo, who has obviously done this before. I would like to add a bit, when it comes to surrender. Surrender turns a HC game into an almost certain win. Because of this, and keeping with Moo's theme of not being blatant, the only hands you should EVER surrender are HARD 12-16. Many of the less experienced HC'ers will argue AGAINST me on this, but I will NEVER surrender hard 17 (even though that's the strongest surrender of all of them!). In the past I have had the play of surrendering (or hitting,for that matter) hard 17 tip them off more than any other move, including perfect insurance bets for 8 hours straight! It's a play that for the FIRST couple of times you do it, you'll get away with it perfectly, with very little heat. But believe me when I tell you, that THAT does NOT last for long!

Soft doubles - A2 to A6: I've run the numbers; you really DON'T gain that much by surrendering these hands. As a matter of fact, it's mathematically INCORRECT to surrender these hands against a 19! (hard 12 vs. a dealer's 19 is ALSO incorrect).

When Moo quotes the 5% additional edge that surrender brings, he's talking about the edge you'll have AFTER you give up the surrender plays I've just mentioned. A HC game with surrender is so strong, it can only be described as "scary" strong!

As far as flat-betting, you are correct about that. Most of the more experienced HC players don't even count at ALL when playing one of these games! When you have a game with an advantage of 10 - 15%, and even HIGHER; why worry about another 1/2%? Free your eyes up for more important things, such as pit bosses huddling way over in the corner of the pit, or looking through pictures; etc; etc.

 

[itrack]

betting

Depending on how much you are betting, you might also want to slowly build up to your final bet. Say if you wanted to bet 400 dollars and the rest of the table is only betting min, or you haven't played this dealer before so they won't recognize you. Betting 400 dollars right off the get go could possibly spook the dealer, or cause some attention from the pit. If it is a pitch game, consider playing the first deck or two to build your bets up. Start at something like 50, then 100, 200 and so on.

This works best if you know that your going to be playing for a while, not just 20 minutes. If you only have a limited window of opportunity, then this might cut into your EV quite a bit.

If you or you BP (whoever is putting the money down) will most likly be recognized by the dealer and pit upon arrival, I'm not so sure that this would have any effect (possibly negative effect?)

 

[neversplit5s]

Here's the cover strategy I came up with for times when a player knows the hole card, but it isn't "common knowledge" for the whole table (if it is, you can probably make any and all unorthodox plays that the strategy calls for).

Insurance: To look like a ploppy, if you know the dealer has a 10 in the hole insure only if you have a strong hand (I'd include BJ, 20, 19, 11, 10, and AA, which are the +EV hands with a dealer Ace under BS after the dealer checks for BJ and doesn't have one). There is probably no need to make a "throwaway" cover insurance bet when the hole card is not a 10.

Surrender: As was previously mentioned, don't surrender anything other than stiffs (the only time I'd consider surrendering 17 is if an Ace is up, and that's because sometimes that would be normal BS).

Splitting: As was previously mentioned, you can probably get away with splitting or not splitting non-ten pairs as the strategy calls for. Splitting tens when the dealer is really weak may be profitable due to the frequency of the hand, but since that's a sign that the player is at one of the polar extremes if you decide to split tens I'd do so with the same caution as a counter.

Hard doubling: It's probably not best to double anything less than 8, since that's a sign of a strong AP. With a player 8 double only against a 5 or 6 up (and possibly a 4). With a player 9 you could probably get away with doubling except when the dealer has a 9, 10, or Ace up. With a player 10 or 11 it's probably safe to double against any dealer upcard. Except maybe against a weak dealer upcard with a player 10 or 11, you're probably safe with not doubling when called for.

Soft doubling: With a player soft 18 or less you can probably get away with doubling or not doubling as dictated by the strategy, since unusual doublings in most cases here is more of a sign of a ploppy than an AP. Soft 19 is dicey, except maybe against a dealer 6 or possibly a 5 up (the former is BS in some cases). Don't even think about doubling soft 20.

Hard hit/stand: Since you often have ploppies that either play "never bust" or "mimic the dealer" you are probably safe with hitting or standing on 12-16 as called for, although you might exercise caution on the more extreme plays (e.g. hitting 16 against 5 or 6 up, standing on 12 against high upcard). Hitting 17 is very dicey, except in occassional cases like has been mentioned. Hitting 18 or 19 is very much out of the question.

Soft hit/stand: Any soft hand of 17 or less should never be stood on, so those ones are moot here. Soft 18 is probably the only soft hand that you should hit or stand on by the strategy. Hitting soft 19 will probably raise eyebrows.

Any thoughts?

 

[MangoJ]

Thank you neversplit, your post was really helpful. Regarding standing on Soft 17 or less: There is no reason standing on soft 16 or less anyway, I think even the best of all worst ploppies would not consider that. Standing on soft 17 might be okay...
Next steps I will get an EV chart for double exposure, so I can work out the players edge.

Unfortunately surrender is not available, but I agree that ploppies have problems with doubles and splits. "Forgetting" to double or not identifying pairs are common (at least I had problems with that when first playing BJ :laugh.

I'm not sure about taking insurance, it would like at least take some camo here. Not happy with an overall 100% insurance accuracy, I would much prefer a 30%-40% hit rate.

What about playing an obvious progression system, that won't break my neck but helps to put more money on the table ? Then I could try to insure more aggressively on big hands, and restrict insure camo on small hands ?

 

[moo321]

Also, you may want to to hit 12 and 13 when there's a big upcard. And you may not want to hit 15-16 at times when it's called for (5 up with a 4 in the hole). Not hitting 12 is more suspicious than hitting against a bust card (some ploppies do hit everything out).

 

[Gamblor]

Good advice 5's. Only comment is that I've seen some ploppies pull some of the moves on the edge cases. e.g., standing on 12 vs dealer high cards. Hitting 17, doubling on 7 (even on a six - guess they were hoping for the ace!).

Of course, context is everything, depends on your image, how your perceived at casino, etc.,

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Civilians sometimes do hit hard 17, but I don't think that's a good justification for that play. You're taking a huge chance by doing so.

 

[moo321]

Good advice 5's. Only comment is that I've seen some ploppies pull some of the moves on the edge cases. e.g., standing on 12 vs dealer high cards. Hitting 17, doubling on 7 (even on a six - guess they were hoping for the ace!).

Of course, context is everything, depends on your image, how your perceived at casino, etc.,

I mean, I've seen ploppies do a lot of moves. But there's certain moves that are more suspicious than others. Standing on 12 vs. 7 is a lot more suspicious than standing on 16 vs. 10.

 

[Midwestern]

can someone please share with me how exactly to do holecarding?
it just seems like something you have to get extremely lucky with and not an actual "strategy" at all

 

[moo321]

can someone please share with me how exactly to do holecarding?
it just seems like something you have to get extremely lucky with and not an actual "strategy" at all

No, I can't. Sorry.

Sharing strategy is one thing, but you're asking for another thing.

 

[zengrifter]

What would be an appropriate cover for holecarding ?

The best I can do is "drunken idiot assh*le. zg

 

[zengrifter]

can someone please share with me how exactly to do holecarding?
it just seems like something you have to get extremely lucky with and not an actual "strategy" at all

One part of it is finding and recognizing, and the other part is how to ideally play it. zg

 

[Cardcounter]

Hole carding by use of a shinner is illegal and will get you thrown in jail. Card counting is legal but might get you tossed from the casino. I know the stragedy when dealer has 12-16 stay with any stiff 12-16 double any hand with an ace. Double 9-11. What a don't know is the stragedy when the dealer totals a 11 or less. When the dealer has 17 or more never double always hit until you tie the dealer.
I also don't know how to play against dealer soft hands say the dealer has a 5 up but an ace in the hole I don't know how to play my hand.

How do you hole card?

I have never been able to hole card.

 

[farmdoggy]

I know the stragedy when dealer has 12-16 stay with any stiff 12-16 double any hand with an ace. Double 9-11. What a don't know is the stragedy when the dealer totals a 11 or less.

This would be the correct basic strategy move when you total the dealer's two cards and make this your new upcard. Edit: Oh, and you use the ENHC rules against an 11 I think.

How do you hole card?

Don't know. Good luck with that, and PM me if you learn anything

 

[moo321]

I know the stragedy when dealer has 12-16 stay with any stiff 12-16 double any hand with an ace. Double 9-11.

This is not correct. http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix16.html

 

[Dyepaintball12]

can someone please share with me how exactly to do holecarding?
it just seems like something you have to get extremely lucky with and not an actual "strategy" at all

Wrong!

 

[MangoJ]

Oh, and you use the ENHC rules against an 11 I think.

I'm not sure about that.
A 2-card 11 will certainly not give the dealer a blackjack (other than a ENHC Ace upcard). Hence doubling and splitting is more of an option.
On the other hand a 2-card 11 is not equivalent to a 11 upcard with peeked holecard. On the 2-card 11 the dealer can draw a ten.
Not to speak of the difference for soft/hard dealer hand.
Similar problem with total of 10.

Basic strategy is only valid for 2-9 for HCing, and may differ for 10,11.
A naive starting point for strategy would be double exposure tables, but ties are lost in those games.

Hence to be in the job, one must make his homework and calculate strategy tables by themselves (or find/read books). Neither of that should be a major problem though.

 

[farmdoggy]

I'm not sure about that.
A 2-card 11 will certainly not give the dealer a blackjack (other than a ENHC Ace upcard). Hence doubling and splitting is more of an option.
On the other hand a 2-card 11 is not equivalent to a 11 upcard with peeked holecard. On the 2-card 11 the dealer can draw a ten.
Not to speak of the difference for soft/hard dealer hand.
Similar problem with total of 10.

Basic strategy is only valid for 2-9 for HCing, and may differ for 10,11.
A naive starting point for strategy would be double exposure tables, but ties are lost in those games.

Hence to be in the job, one must make his homework and calculate strategy tables by themselves (or find/read books). Neither of that should be a major problem though.

...Or you can just check the table Moo provided. The only strategy difference I noticed from ENHC was when the dealer has an 11, you stay on your 16, and on S18.