dice for conversation only

Discussion in 'General' started by pogostick, Jul 14, 2011.

  1. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    I know there are only 2 bets on the table one should make . Pass line & take full odds or don't pass & give full odds. laying & placing bets comes in second best. Now I am going to ask why would one want to give odds on the don't After point has been established ? You already have the odds in your favor. Example > 4 or 10 is made on the come out ($25 bet) you give full odds $50. shooter makes the 4 ,you get paid $50 , $25 on front & $25 for $50 odds you gave. (2 for1). Why not just up your bet to $50 & not give any odds . You would win $50 instead of risking $75 to make $50. If you are not familiar with craps then this post will make no sense to you. 7 & 11 you lose 2 & 3 win ,12 par.12 The disadvantage is on the come out . As far as i'm concerned this is about as close that you can get to be playing with the house. Bar 12 is the only advantage the house has on don't come out as you don't win or lose on 12.
  2. tthree

    tthree Banned

    I notice you chose the points that give the don't better the largest advantage after it is established. The disadvantage on your don't bet covers the full spectrum of possibilities. You have a large disadvantage on the comeout, win 3 times lose 8 times. One of these events happens 31.43% of the time. You make up most of it with the advantage you have after the point is established. The odds bet is a separate bet that doesn't change the house odds on your original bet at all. The house has no advantage on this bet as it is payed at fair odds. What the affect is is to water down the drag on profit from the comeout and lower the house edge on the total of the two wagers compared to your initial wager. This allows you to make more money if the points are not being made more than expected and still make a profit if the 2 and 3 to natural is coming out more against you compared to expected rates. When they make the points more than expected it hurts you a lot.

    Trying to explain the nuts and bolts can seem futile. Basically if you play a $10 dont bet with single odds you expect to lose the same as the $10 bet by itself in the long run. A $20 bet on the dont would win the same on the point numbers but expect to lose twice as much in the long run.
  3. Ferretnparrot

    Ferretnparrot Well-Known Member

    If your goal is to pass time playing the game, then no, you shouldnt place the odds.

    Some people take the position to be PUTTING THEIR MONEY INTO ACTION, in which case, the money you put into action is subject to a lower house edge.

    In the end, you lose the same amount of money, but one way gets more money into action that is the only difference.

    It coudl also be reletive to what one considers a "recreationally sized" bet being a bet that is so small that they dont care. If the size of that bet is 10 dollars in proportion to one bank, then it doesnt make sense, but if the bet size is 100 dollars, now it makes sense for the player to bet 10, and then lay 90 for odds.

    One could always argue that you would be obviously better off playing blackjack, but this is a perfect example of how sometimes the purpose of playing a game is not for profit, I happily play craps socially at the expense of 14 cents per roll, all you gotta do is get a few drinks and its worth your while even if you dont see the valuye of the social atmosphere.
  4. tthree

    tthree Banned

    If you only play the point decision it is a lot less than 14 cents a roll. It can take some rolls to decide the point number. Adding come bets make it 14 cents a roll. Of course maybe you didn't mean the technical term for roll.
  5. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    Oh what the hell! I never play don't anyway . I play pass & come ,take full odds & yes sometime play the hard six & 8 plus that dam horn bet, Can't help myself LOL . Just wanted to start something. Pogo
  6. Ferretnparrot

    Ferretnparrot Well-Known Member

    I meant "roll" as in complete cycle of the bet from come out untill its payed or taken. And 14 cents for a 10 dollar base bet
  7. We cannot "up" the $25 don't pass bet after the point, but your comments about laying odds are interesting, pogostick. Our $25 don't bet is established at a pount of 4 or 10 which pays 1:1. Laying $50 double odds will increase our action to $75 for a $50 total win. If we chose to not lay odds with two decisions (two different shooters or points), our total action is $50 to win $50. Sure make a lot sense to not risk the additional money to make the same amount
  8. tthree

    tthree Banned

    Here is the break down for 2 donts vs 1 dont with single odds for point 4 or 10

    To get your money to the 4 or 10 on the don't you had to survive the come out, you lose $25 8/11 and win 3/11 of the 31.43% of the time your dont bet is decided on the come out, a net lose of 5/11. Only 25% of your points will be 4 or 10. To get 2 points up you will expect to lose about 1 bet on average to the come out. These 2 will both be a point of either 4 or 10 exactly 4% of the time.

    So for 25% of the time you get a point of 4 or 10 your net comeout lose 5/11*($25) = $11.36 for 31.43% of the time any point is established. So we get $11.36*(31.43%/25%) = $14.28 lost to the come out per point of 4 or 10.

    So for dont with no odds, you lose $28.56 getting your 2 points (4 or 10)up so if you win both you are $21.44 ahead on average. If you win one you are $28.56 behind on average. If you lose both you are $78.56 down on average.

    Total = 4/9*($21.44) + 2(2/9)*(-$28.56) + 1/9*(-$78.56) = $9.53 - $12.69 - $8.73 = -$11.89

    For single odds you lose about $14.28 getting one point up(4 or 10). If you win you are $35.72 ahead. If you lose you are $89.28 behind.

    Total = 2/3*($35.72) + 1/3*(-$89.28) = $23.81 - $29.76 = -$5.95

    So you lose twice as much in the long run making 2 dont bets without odds that end up on the 4 or 10 than 1 dont bet with single odds that end up on the 4 or 10.
  9. CrazyEddie

    CrazyEddie Member

    In other words, taking or laying any amount of free odds doesn't affect your EV one way or the other, just your variance.
  10. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    I love craps although I should stick with BJ. I had a few chips & was headed for the cage to cash in for the night. A $5 crap table got in my way on the way. No players . I had $55 total. pass line $5 point 6 ,took 25 odds .come bet $5 ,another 6 place $25 odds working on the come out another 6 . Made a hard 8 three times & had pressed it up to $25 . Walked away with $800 > I was happy ,dealers were happy because I had placed a $1 bet on most of my bets for them. I found out something about tipping the dealers. Do not place a tip on the pass line because they only get paid 1 for 1 . If you place any number ,they get paid 2 for 1. that is one of their benefits from the casino.
  11. FLASH1296

    FLASH1296 Well-Known Member

    I suggest that those that still think "taking" or "laying" the odds is a poor idea check out the authoritative info on Craps at wizardofodds.com:

    GO TO: http://wizardofodds.com/craps

    THEN: http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/craps-faq.html

    I M O the correct way to look at this issue is as follows:

    You are gambling, putting money at risk with the hope or expectation of making a profit or suffering a minimal loss.

    Are we on the same page?

    If you bet $10 on the pass line or don't pass and repeat for a period of time, your expectation is a loss of 14¢ per resolved bet.

    If I bet $10 and take "5 times odds"* on each roll my e.v. is NOT the same as yours. See The wiz' as referenced above. This is because that 1.4% House Edge is diluted by the ODDS bet. You are paying 14¢ for a little action. I am paying 14¢ for much more action. Would you accept playing the same 14¢ on $5 action instead of $10 ? How about on $1 bets ?

    * I ONLY bet the dont's and I never play at tables that offer less than 10 X ODDS.

    Even in Atlantic City there are two casinos that offer 100 x ODDS

    While it is true that I am accepting hugely increased variance, I am fortunate enough to have a 6 figure cash bankroll.
    This is not for the faint of heart.

    NOTE: One of the things that I enjoy about "betting from the dark side" is that I frequently make a string of "Don't Come" bets. Often I will have 3 or 4 bets [with ODDS] "going"; and this is remarkable because while the Pass Line Bettors LOSE ALL of their "COME" bets when a 7 is rolled, what happens to me is quite different. I win ALL of my bets! Losing a bunch of bets all at once is almost catastrophic. I can only lose one bet at a time ! This creates a scenario with LESS FLUX ! My results are not so brutal when I am unlucky.
  12. FLASH1296

    FLASH1296 Well-Known Member

  13. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    i am going on a cruise out of norfolk. They have cs on bj & hit soft 17. I'm thinking about not play bj at all but what do you guys think about this on craps . Place 6 & 8 $12 each if either point is made , i get paid $14 . Press the 6&8 to $18 keep the $2 . My total investiment from start was $24 ,now $22. Any 6 or 8 made after that will pay $21 . My reason ? My pass line bet has to be reapeated & come bets has to be made twice.
  14. tthree

    tthree Banned

    If you don't take odds on your pass/come bets this is not a bad trade off. HE 1.51%, if memory serves, rather than 1.42% and ending up with a bad point. Of course you give up the expected winfall for the comeout portion of the bet. The thing to consider that you might be missing is you are not vulnerable to a 7 on the establishment of the P/C bet. The 7 and 11 pay for that. The place bet repeat you have to survive the 7 twice. For the place bet combo hit twice 10/16*10/16 = 39% success paying $35 at risk about $24. For the P/C bet no odds you have about 49.29% success, 1/3 of the time it is decided on the comeout with you winning 2/3 of the time. The downside is your point could be a 4 or 10.
  15. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    I think only playing the pass when I shoot & just placing the 6 & 8 when others shoot & pressing them up one unit to $18 on both if either 6 or 8 is made.
  16. tthree

    tthree Banned

    Do you take them down after the second hit? Is this an up and pull? Or is it to pay for 2 $18 bets on the 6 and 8 for a hot roll?
  17. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    I leave them up for the hot roll. I know if I play long enough , no matter what I do the house % will prevail. my normal play is $10 pass full odds & 2 come bets full odds. Odds are 3, 4 ,5 on 4,5,6 . I have so many times had three points on the table ,just to see them wiped out after a long roll ,not hitting a one of my numbers, losing at least $100 . I have been practing the 6 & 8 method vs pass & come laying odds & so far the placing the 6 & 8 pressing both to $18 if either number is made is #1. If the table is hot I will place the 6 & 8 for $30 each & press to $42 if either is made. Example> roll 6 ,press 6 & 8 to $18. Thank's tthree for the come back . Pogo
  18. ChefJJ

    ChefJJ Well-Known Member

    The Timeless Debate...

    ...Place 6/8 bets vs. Come bets. When you get down to the bottom of these bets "on an island", they are both as good as it gets (except for the Odds, of course).

    My personal preference continues to be the Place bets over Come. You wanna know why? The biggest component of the Pass/Come bets' low HE is that the 7 is a winner for it when it is coming out. So when you're doing the 3-point molly (Pass + Come + Come), those Come bets' advantageous rolls (their come-outs) come at a time when other Pass/Come bets lose. It's more or less become a hedge...which may or may not be good depending on your philosophy.

    Once the Pass/Come bet travels, it's a big disadvantage...and unless you're taking an obscene amount of Odds to go with those wagers (which is not feasible for nearly everyone) like FLASH is wise to recommend, you're stuck with some steep house edges. So, perhaps I should revise my thought to say, Place bets are superior unless you plan on taking full advantage of 10X or greater odds on each Pass/Come made.

    Very few players work their Place bets during the come-out roll (especially when having a Pass Line wager). There are several explanations for this, including that the house's default is this way, but an important one is that you don't have bets contradicting each other. A 7 wins the Pass Line, but kills those worked Place bets. The fact that Place bets are NOT contract wagers like Pass & Come can be beneficial as well.

    Carry this logic forward when making a Come bet and having the Pass Line as well. When you've got a wager that wins you money when the 7 rolls, why dilute that with action that will lose at the same time? 7 is the most powerful number in the game of craps...enjoy it when it works for you instead of muddying the water.

    I say this all in the "conversation only" mindset. No number crunching, just worthless oozing of my mind. :joker: There are pros and cons to all of it, the biggest being the omnipresent house edge.

  19. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    Thank's chef> This is 100% the way I was thinking ,may have not explained it that well. Pogo
  20. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    UP DATE > NOT WORTH A CRAP > Sorry for the thought of posting this.

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