Double on soft 21

[aslan]

I might add that more and more ploppies are splitting tens nowadays. I think the word must have spread that it can be a profitable move. I've seen it done exclusively in negative counts. If it doesn't generate pit heat, it usually does generate much attention and many remarks by the other players at the table.

To date, I have not yet witnessed anyone double down on soft 21, either a blackjack (in stores where it's allowed) or in the course of splitting tens. It just seems to scream that the player knows the remaining cards are hugely rich in tens, plus it does not mirror any ploppy move I have ever seen.

Others may disagree. That's fine. It's just not something I would do except in rare circumstances. Never say never. And I am sure there are players who are such good actors they could hit a hard 18 successfully without raising pit suspicions. That would not be me.

 

[BJgenius007]

I might add that more and more ploppies are splitting tens nowadays. I think the word must have spread that it can be a profitable move. I've seen it done exclusively in negative counts. If it doesn't generate pit heat, it usually does generate much attention and many remarks by the other players at the table.

To date, I have not yet witnessed anyone double down on soft 21, either a blackjack (in stores where it's allowed) or in the course of splitting tens. It just seems to scream that the player knows the remaining cards are hugely rich in tens, plus it does not mirror any ploppy move I have ever seen.

Others may disagree. That's fine. It's just not something I would do except in rare circumstances. Never say never. And I am sure there are players who are such good actors they could hit a hard 18 successfully without raising pit suspicions. That would not be me.

I have only done this once in my lifetime. Split two tens against dealer's 6 when TC was +10. Then I got the ace, so I doubled down. The dealer got very confused even I explained it is soft 11. The pit boss came and told her it is a legitimate double down. After the experience, I haven't double down on soft 11 after splitting tens because the pit boss is likely to come and investigate. And most people in my table called me greedy at that moment. "Wasn't 21 good enough for you?" I have to leave the table shortly after the play. Probably not worth it even it is profitable when TC is +8 or higher.

 

[aslan]

I have only done this once in my lifetime. Split two tens against dealer's 6 when TC was +10. Then I got the ace, so I doubled down. The dealer got very confused even I explained it is soft 11. The pit boss came and told her it is a legitimate double down. After the experience, I haven't double down on soft 11 after splitting tens because the pit boss is likely to come and investigate. And most people in my table called me greedy at that moment. "Wasn't 21 good enough for you?" I have to leave the table shortly after the play. Probably not worth it even it is profitable when TC is +8 or higher.

Thanks for that. It's exactly how I was viewing it. But who made me authority of the world? I can only see it in rare cases like zg said, leaving town. lol But it's just my opinion. Others may have had different experiences.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

When i was in vegas, i joked about doubling on blackjack because i was on such a winning streak.....The dealer paused, looked at me and asked if thats what i wanted to do as he pulled back the money he was about to pay me with. I immediately told him i was just joking, and he explained to me that he sees it usually once once a day, i inquired further acting all surpised that anybody would do such a thing, and then he mentioned that peopel do it at 6:5 tables a lot

"usually in single deck mostly the older guys counting the decks where they kinda know what cards are left"

was the explanation he gave. The PB overheard and asked me if i wouldnt double blackjack if it payed 6:5, i said no way, its a winner! Then she said nooo, I think you woudl do it, you look like the kinda guy that would do that
denial! denial! denial!!

after that experience I dont think I would make the move EVER, all I did was ask about it and I got more attention than I needed.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

Remember don't argue with Chaperone, he will inevitably start belittling you for not seeing things exactly as he does.
And even at a very high count I don't find the possibility of doubling soft 21 to now have 12 appealing. Splitting 10's can be worth the risk. Hell, a statistically unlikely number of times I have saved the table from a dealer 21 by splitting my faces. But if you hold onto that soft 21 no matter what you do YOU WILL NOT LOSE THAT HAND and if you double, you can.

Oh, and once a dealer sarcastically said to me after I got soft 21, "you know you can double that, right?" :grin:

 

[The Chaperone]

Remember don't argue with Chaperone, he will inevitably start belittling you for not seeing things exactly as he does.
And even at a very high count I don't find the possibility of doubling soft 21 to now have 12 appealing. Splitting 10's can be worth the risk. Hell, a statistically unlikely number of times I have saved the table from a dealer 21 by splitting my faces. But if you hold onto that soft 21 no matter what you do YOU WILL NOT LOSE THAT HAND and if you double, you can.

Oh, and once a dealer sarcastically said to me after I got soft 21, "you know you can double that, right?" :grin:

I apologize for trying to help people make mroe money. If you want to lose money, the easiest way is to give it all to the dealer or some other random person that enters your life. The second easiest way is to not use math to try to come with proper playing decisions and instead just wing it with logic such as "But if you hold onto that soft 21 no matter what you do YOU WILL NOT LOSE THAT HAND and if you double, you can."

 

[zengrifter]

"But if you hold onto that soft 21 no matter what you do YOU WILL NOT LOSE THAT HAND and if you double, you can."

What ponderous advice you bestow! zg

 

[Canceler]

Just for the record...

Since no one in this entire thread has yet used the term “expected value”, let me be the first. For 6D, the EV of doubling AT vs. 6 is approximately 0.67. Comparing this to the 1.5 or 1.2 or 1.0 (depending on the situation) I’m likely to get by standing makes this an easy decision.

 

[aslan]

Since no one in this entire thread has yet used the term “expected value”, let me be the first. For 6D, the EV of doubling AT vs. 6 is approximately 0.67. Comparing this to the 1.5 or 1.2 or 1.0 (depending on the situation) I’m likely to get by standing makes this an easy decision.

Just for the record... are you saying you would not double AT vs. 6, or you would double AT vs. 6? BTW, did you calculate the EV of doubling AT vs. 6 at true count = +8 (or other plus count) or did you calculate it in general, as for basic strategy?

 

[The Chaperone]

Since no one in this entire thread has yet used the term “expected value”, let me be the first. For 6D, the EV of doubling AT vs. 6 is approximately 0.67. Comparing this to the 1.5 or 1.2 or 1.0 (depending on the situation) I’m likely to get by standing makes this an easy decision.

In this thread we are talking about doubling after splitting. No one is suggesting you double down a BJ. And the EV is not 1.0 because you might push. It is more like .95 or something. Of course standing is better with no count information, but if the count gets sufficiently high, the EV of doubling can be better than .95.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I apologize for trying to help people make mroe money. If you want to lose money, the easiest way is to give it all to the dealer or some other random person that enters your life. The second easiest way is to not use math to try to come with proper playing decisions and instead just wing it with logic such as "But if you hold onto that soft 21 no matter what you do YOU WILL NOT LOSE THAT HAND and if you double, you can."

You already have a large bet out, you have already split tens, you have a hand that won't lose, I wouldn't throw that away to make a couple extra theoretical bucks. The risk isn't worth the reward. The only way I would ever consider it is if the count was the highest I have seen and I knew there were no more aces. doubling to get 12? No thanks. Getting a stiff when the dealer is hiding an ace under that six, no thanks. The best play according to math isn't always the best play for one's given financial situation. See:many soft doubles.

Of course if I had unlimited time, unlimited bankroll and invulnerability from heat, I would take that double whenever it was at or beyond the index. But I play in the real world, not on a simulator.

 

[blackriver]

burning cards

in addition to heat and variance, how sick would you be if the next card is an ace and dealer has a made hand costing u a likely blackjack next hand.

if the count is high enough to consider this play ur likely near the end of the shoe and each card u take is a real threat to end the shoe. if you estimate a 5% edge on the next handand plan to bet $1000, that next hand is worth $50. if there is a 1/5 chance the cut card follows ur double down, then you cost urself $10 more. if your playing heads up this effect doesnt taper off that fast as you get further away from the cut card because each card left in the deck has this value now and using one up to make a thin bet is costly. the more "right" this play becomes the higher the cost of using up cards.

 

[pogostick]

Hi,

I remembered James Grojean mentioned in Beyond Counting that we should double on soft 21 when we get Ace after we split Tens, as it doesn't pay 2 to 1. Today my friend splitted Tens against 5 (the true count was about 8 and we used Hi-Los system.) He got a 9 on the first and Ace on the second, which made a soft 21. I told him (well, I wasn't very serious) that he should double on the soft 21 and he said that I was crazy and stay the hand.

The next player had A6 and got a Ten as he doubled it. The dealer got Ten under and drew a 6, which made 21. It was a disaster...

We didn't ask to check the last card as we both didn't really want to know what would happen if he had doubled the soft 21.

Anyway, what I want to know is, have anyone really doubled soft 21 in real life? Does anyone hae the index? I believe theoretically it's very profitable, but I really doubt if anyone would do it...

WOW! Gotta have testicles as big as seat cushions.