+EV video poker

[flyingwind]

How do I determine if a progressive makes VP break even or +EV? again, assume JoB

 

[sagefr0g]

How do I determine if a progressive makes VP break even or +EV? again, assume JoB

i'm not sure, but it's an interesting question. i'll take a guess.

first you gotta know the EV of that particular JoB, without the increased progressive over four thousand credits, sorta thing. edit in blue..
then subtract four thousand credits from the number of credits represented by the progressive.
then divide that amount by the number of seats that can play for the royal flush.
then multiply that amount by the number of seats you are going to occupy.
subtract from this amount the actual amount for which the particular JoB game's EV is below 100% return (ie break even point).
essentially that would be it, i think.
however, it would be interesting as well, but how significant i'm not sure, to know how many hands of JoB were played to reach the level that the progressive is at. possible reason being that on average it's known to take forty thousand hands played to make a royal flush.
so you could gauge the rate that the progressive meter increases according to how many hands of JoB have been played, sorta thing.
so by knowing the size of the meter you can know how many hands of JoB have already been played. then you could speculate that theoretically there are only so many hands more to be played before the royal flush hits, sorta thing. so some size of the progressive could represent to you some theoretical number of hands you wont have to play, which would represent a saving to you on your cost of play, sorta thing.
so you might figure that at some point the size of the progressive is gonna represent a relatively optimal sweet spot, sorta thing.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Gotta have a JOB if You Wanna Be With Me

On a full pay machine, -.5 approx ev
Isn't the royal $4,000 on a dollar machine?
and It's about 2% of return?
Then you need the royal to be about $5,000 to be even
:joker::whip:

 

[KenSmith]

Rather than worry with the calculations above (which are reasonable), here are the answers for all the common Jacks or Better paytables:

The paytable designation here is the single-coin payout for full house/flush.
The number after is the progressive value in credits that is breakeven.

9/6 Paytable: 4880
9/5 Paytable: 6785
8/5 Paytable: 8665
7/5 Paytable: 10,520
6/5 Paytable: 12,341

Don't have 8/6 value handy but it is quite close to 9/5.
These numbers assume optimal play. Slightly higher breakeven points are appropriate if you just stick with non-progressive strategy play.

 

[Canceler]

I don't know about the rest of it, but...

however, it would be interesting as well, but how significant i'm not sure, to know how many hands of JoB were played to reach the level that the progressive is at. possible reason being that on average it's known to take forty thousand hands played to make a royal flush.
so you could gauge the rate that the progressive meter increases according to how many hands of JoB have been played, sorta thing.
so by knowing the size of the meter you can know how many hands of JoB have already been played. then you could speculate that theoretically there are only so many hands more to be played before the royal flush hits, sorta thing.

Wouldn't this be a Gambler's Fallacy sorta thing?

 

[sagefr0g]

Wouldn't this be a Gambler's Fallacy sorta thing?

that's exactly what i was wondering, and how come i put the term in the statement, of i wasn't sure. :whip:
i think there is some validity in the idea i was trying to get at, but yes there does seem to be the Gambler Fallacy specter lurking in there some where.
edit: would it have been better to state that such an idea would only have significance long term, ie. over many, many, many, ..... attempts or attacks going after that progressive?

 

[SleightOfHand]

Rather than worry with the calculations above (which are reasonable), here are the answers for all the common Jacks or Better paytables:

The paytable designation here is the single-coin payout for full house/flush.
The number after is the progressive value in credits that is breakeven.

9/6 Paytable: 4880
9/5 Paytable: 6785
8/5 Paytable: 8665
7/5 Paytable: 10,520
6/5 Paytable: 12,341

Don't have 8/6 value handy but it is quite close to 9/5.
These numbers assume optimal play. Slightly higher breakeven points are appropriate if you just stick with non-progressive strategy play.

http://videopokerhelp.net/condensed-prog.htm

 

[blackjack avenger]

Don't Think So

that's exactly what i was wondering, and how come i put the term in the statement, of i wasn't sure. :whip:
i think there is some validity in the idea i was trying to get at, but yes there does seem to be the Gambler Fallacy specter lurking in there some where.
edit: would it have been better to state that such an idea would only have significance long term, ie. over many, many, many, ..... attempts or attacks going after that progressive?

Every hand you play you have an approx 1 in 40,000 chance of hitting a royal. That is the case even if you had just hit a royal, or are a few cycles behind. (There is no TC Theorem to save you:laugh Every hand you play you are facing a freshly shuffled deck.
:joker::whip:

 

[Machinist]

Dammit

Okay everbody..........I'm gonna kick Sagefrogs ARSE!!!!!! The man needs a readjustment.... You need to remove that whole garbley goop you just wrote!!!!:whip::whip:
I cant even bear to look at it again!!!!!!!!!
Get this due theory outta yer head man!!!!!
Is this how the particular game you are playing now works?????? Random is FU**ing random!!!!!!! The progressive get to a wherever it is at by the size of the meter.....and VARIANCE......Thats it!!!!!!!!
Jump in at whatver point you want .......eventually you will play the average of around 40,000 hands and hit a royal...sometime earlier and sometimes later....sometimes way way way way later...
Hey if you haven't hit a BJ in say 100 hands arent you due??????? Guess maybe you should bump up your bets since you know damn well you are due to hit a couple.......right???????
AAAGGGGGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! Wait till i talk to you know who.....

Love ya man!!!!

Machinist

 

[sagefr0g]

Every hand you play you have an approx 1 in 40,000 chance of hitting a royal. That is the case even if you had just hit a royal, or are a few cycles behind. (There is no TC Theorem to save you:laugh Every hand you play you are facing a freshly shuffled deck.
:joker::whip:

lmao, what? no TC Theorem??? :laugh:

but yes, i get what your writing on the chances of hitting a royal and that so called 'cycles' may be 'missed'.

question: (maybe the answer will help cleanse my soul of The Gambler's Fallacy):angel::whip:

if Johnny played 400,000,000 hands of vp, how many royals would one expect Johnny to hit?

edit: Mach feel free to answer.

 

[Machinist]

One every 40,000 hands approximately..... if you played that many hands of BJ....how many BlackJacks would you hit????????
I"m calling ya.........wife and sis in law are shopping....:laugh::laugh:


Machinist

 

[SleightOfHand]

Every hand you play you have an approx 1 in 40,000 chance of hitting a royal. That is the case even if you had just hit a royal, or are a few cycles behind. (There is no TC Theorem to save you:laugh Every hand you play you are facing a freshly shuffled deck.
:joker::whip:

lmao, what? no TC Theorem??? :laugh:

but yes, i get what your writing on the chances of hitting a royal and that so called 'cycles' may be 'missed'.

question: (maybe the answer will help cleanse my soul of The Gambler's Fallacy):angel::whip:

if Johnny played 400,000,000 hands of vp, how many royals would one expect Johnny to hit?

edit: Mach feel free to answer.

What is going on? The TC Theorem states that the TC tends to stay the same after subsequent rounds of play. I think you are think about the law of large numbers.

Anyway, this seems similar to a post that I saw shad make, where if you are expected to make $X after 1000 hands but make $X+Y. Will you expect to have a loss come by to get you back to your EV? NO! The game has no memory and you will be happy in knowing that your EV for the future will be $X+Y+(whatever EV you have for your subsequent play).

 

[flyingwind]

Rather than worry with the calculations above (which are reasonable), here are the answers for all the common Jacks or Better paytables:

The paytable designation here is the single-coin payout for full house/flush.
The number after is the progressive value in credits that is breakeven.

9/6 Paytable: 4880
9/5 Paytable: 6785
8/5 Paytable: 8665
7/5 Paytable: 10,520
6/5 Paytable: 12,341

Don't have 8/6 value handy but it is quite close to 9/5.
These numbers assume optimal play. Slightly higher breakeven points are appropriate if you just stick with non-progressive strategy play.

Thank you for this information. I'm grateful that you've posted to this thread.

To clarify, on a JoB fullpay 9/6 machine, if the payout for a RF is 4000 and the progressive adds another 880 coins (for a total of 4880), then it's break even - if you use progressive appropriate strategy. Correct?

It appears logical that if non-progressive strategy play is used, higher progressives are needed to break even.

Is there a site that has the progressive appropriate strategy for JoB? Or a book?

 

[sagefr0g]

One every 40,000 hands approximately..... if you played that many hands of BJ....how many BlackJacks would you hit????????
I"m calling ya.........wife and sis in law are shopping....:laugh::laugh:


Machinist

yeah, one every 40,000 hands, approximately, that's what i thought.
i'd expect to get 4.75 blackjacks every 100 hands approximately.....
so for 40,000 hands, i'd expect to get 1,900 blackjacks for every 40,000 hands approximately.
all that could vary wildly as far as how it would happen, i realize that, geesh.

so having such expectations, is gambler's fallacy? huh? i don't get it, i guess, like heck i'm not trying to say what's gonna happen, only what one can expect to happen and not for one 'cycle', two cycles' or whatever, thousands of cycles, just expectation is all.

hey avenger help me out with this, maybe the TC Theorem or something, lol.

oh yeah, due schmoo, lol, expectation, is just what it is far as random stuff, no?
nice talking wit ya Mach.

 

[blackjack avenger]

A Joke

What is going on? The TC Theorem states that the TC tends to stay the same after subsequent rounds of play.

I was joking in bringing up the TC theorem
:joker::whip:

 

[sagefr0g]

it might be funny but is it really a joke

I was joking in bringing up the TC theorem
:joker::whip:

in essence what is the tc theorem? nothing more than an average, really isn't it?:whip:
the gambler's fallacy psychologists often point to the 'law of averages' as a hallmark sort of thing far as the wrongful thinking.
well expecting stuff to happen in the short term when relying on averages is folly, imho.
long run expectation, well, i'm not so sure the folly is such a folly in that case as long as one is dealing with a normalized situation.
help me out here, really truly confused and uncertain on this issue, here.

 

[Canceler]

help me out here, really truly confused and uncertain on this issue, here.

Yes, you do seem confused. Sometimes you seem to “get it”, and other times that voodoo streak you have comes showing through. Right now I’m going to deal only with what is in this thread.

Earlier in this thread you suggested that someone could estimate how close they were to getting a royal flush by estimating how many hands had been played without the royal being hit. This caused everybody and his brother to jump on you with both feet.

well expecting stuff to happen in the short term when relying on averages is folly, imho.

This. It’s all about averages. And randomness. And realizing that with random outcomes, the past does not affect the future. (Thinking that the past does affect the future is the crux of the Gambler’s Fallacy.)

Here’s a little quiz for you:

Suppose you’re playing a game, the outcome of which is randomly determined. It can be mathematically shown that your chance of winning is 1 in 40,000.

1. You’ve already taken one shot at this, and lost. What are your chances of winning on your second try?
(A) 1/39,999
(B) 1/40,000

2. It is now much later, and you’ve lost 20,000 times in a row. What are your chances of winning on your 20,001st try?
(A) 1/20,000
(B) 1/40,000

3. It is now much later still. You’ve played and lost 39,999 times. What are your chances of winning on the 40,000th try?
(A) Winning is a certainty.
(B) 1/40,000

Well, I’m hoping you picked answer (B) every time. If you did, congratulations! But if you did, how could you say what you said about royal flushes?

If you did NOT pick (B) every time, then you think the Gambler’s Fallacy is not a fallacy, and I don’t know what we’re going to do with you.

Note to Machinist: Keep trying to chip away at Mr. Fr0g’s voodoo streak. Just because something may seem impossible is no reason to give up!

 

[sagefr0g]

........
Well, I’m hoping you picked answer (B) every time. If you did, congratulations! But if you did, how could you say what you said about royal flushes?

If you did NOT pick (B) every time, then you think the Gambler’s Fallacy is not a fallacy, and I don’t know what we’re going to do with you.

Note to Machinist: Keep trying to chip away at Mr. Fr0g’s voodoo streak. Just because something may seem impossible is no reason to give up!

thank you for responding.
ok, i did pick B.
now as far as how i could say what i said about royal flushes, hmm, well i'm not going to go back and read what i said. i'll just say what seems logical to me. italicized below:
i believe on average it takes about 40,000 hands for a royal flush to present. doesn't mean it can't happen in one hand, doesn't mean it can't happen one after another in two hands and doesn't mean it will happen before or by 40,000 hands and doesn't mean it's gonna happen by 80,000 or even more hands, or even ever, lol.
all that said, i'd say i can't know if a royal will present but i can expect a royal to present in approximately forty thousand hands.
expecting, knowing and not knowing something are to me very different phenomenon especially when it comes to the involvement of some random element, sorta thing. so i'd say far as what i said about the royal flush in the earlier post would be all i know is i don't know when the royal will present but i can expect it will present in about 40,000 hands. now say i've played 30,000 hands, well i still don't know when the royal will hit, i just know the odds are one in forty thousand far as the next hand, but what i do know is i've got 10,000 more hands to go until i reach the number of hands i expect a royal to hit in. but no, it wouldn't mean i know the royal is gonna come.

so i guess the crux of the matter would be is such expectation entirely meaningless when dealing with such an uncertain realm.
i'm admittedly at a loss to judge that, my instincts tell me it's not entirely a meaningless concern.:whip:

Mach will probably kick my arse or whatever lol, but he knows me fairly well, knows i'm pretty careful about stuff in the casinos, even though i have some issues, lol...... doubt he'll give up on me.

 

[mjbballar23]

http://videopokerhelp.net/condensed-prog.htm

This list assumes $1 machines right?

 

[SleightOfHand]

This list assumes $1 machines right?

$0.25 machines looks like