F&#k Positive Counts!

[Automatic Monkey]

I was just wondering to what extent or how often or whatever you may go to or not to discover, in some sort of way, how "normal" your results were. Or how unlikely or not the bad luck you experienced actually was.

It was 100% likely. It already happened.

From my last really bad session, what are the chances of the dealer turning 8 naturals before I got one, playing two hands? Also 100%. Or playing all night where the dealer doesn't get even one natural? Same. It kind of doesn't matter how likely it is to happen again. If I knew bad variance was going to happen on any one session I'd stay home that day. But in reality there's no way to know until it's too late, so why fret?

 

[Kasi]

It was 100% likely. It already happened.

From my last really bad session, what are the chances of the dealer turning 8 naturals before I got one, playing two hands? Also 100%. Or playing all night where the dealer doesn't get even one natural? Same. It kind of doesn't matter how likely it is to happen again. If I knew bad variance was going to happen on any one session I'd stay home that day. But in reality there's no way to know until it's too late, so why fret?

Guess that's one way of looking at it lol.

Just meant it might be nice to know from time to time whether such and such results over so long are within 1 or 2 or more stan deviations or not. If really unlikely maybe you reexamine things a little. Maybe it's just reassuring to know it was a 1 in 1000 event and therefore maybe not "normal" and you won't likely have to go thru a stretch like that any time soon. Whether it's for a few sessions or much longer. Don't you ever fret at all after any number of hands about how close you may or may not be to EV? I'm pretty sure you do.

Like you're saying though doesn't likely matter too much if it's only for relatively few hands.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Guess that's one way of looking at it lol.

Just meant it might be nice to know from time to time whether such and such results over so long are within 1 or 2 or more stan deviations or not. If really unlikely maybe you reexamine things a little. Maybe it's just reassuring to know it was a 1 in 1000 event and therefore maybe not "normal" and you won't likely have to go thru a stretch like that any time soon. Whether it's for a few sessions or much longer. Don't you ever fret at all after any number of hands about how close you may or may not be to EV? I'm pretty sure you do.

Like you're saying though doesn't likely matter too much if it's only for relatively few hands.

The dealer getting a lot of cold turkeys and naturals in high counts is completely expected. It would be deviant if it didn't happen. Just like busting stiffs all the time in high counts.

As for myself, despite my screaming-nut act I try and keep my mind free of all intrusive thoughts when playing. Otherwise- you end up like a baseball player worrying about his batting average when he's at the plate. That's one of the worst things you can to to an opposing baseball player, yell his batting average at him while he's batting, whether it's good or bad.

 

[Bashful C. Stupid-Butt]

I'm sorry, I'm on a winning streak and am at least 15K ahead in this game in a total of maybe 48 hours live play.
Quite a run...$300/hour. May I ask the number of decks, minimum bet, bet spread, and if you remember, your largest single bet. I'm just curious, all your posts are just so positive. Maybe we can all learn.

This was back in 1992. A long time ago. I'm sure it was one of my 1st posts. Seriously though the largest bet had to be right after I came back from the can man. This was was sitting there for a while and lost a hand as i returned. He got up, and I moved all my chips in. It might have been $500.00 on an unknown count. I won that hand and the winning streak started.

I do remember that I would place a large bet when the deck was good, and lower my bet until I was down to 25. It often turned out that when the bet was raised, I would go on a streak say bet 375 win, 175 win, 75 win, 50, win, 25 lose. I rarely lost when I raised the bet.

Even though the cards are counted and like I had 200 on the board, I would bump it up to 375 and then start that run. I can't admit that luck was in control. It worked many times.

My current winning streak are small amounts of somewhere between 300 and 150 3 maybe 4 times in a row. I'm not keeping a log. Not quite ready to get into the full swing. Need more practice. Sort of rusty, but definitely not nervous. That went away due to not being at the end of a rope. Most often I would go when the money was tight and more times than not I came home a winner.

I would have to play the game blindfolded or make a really large error in judgement to lose enough money to be in the hole. i got quite lucky for sure.

 

[WRX]

When you lose big, it's ALWAYS in positive counts. Because that's when you have the big money out. If you're doing it right.

When you're playing in a positive count, your edge is still low, so variance still dominates short-term results.

 

[Doofus]

When you lose big, it's ALWAYS in positive counts. Because that's when you have the big money out. If you're doing it right.

When you're playing in a positive count, your edge is still low, so variance still dominates short-term results.

True true true. Not only is the count high for the player, it's high for the dealer as well. Something to remember.

The problem is, when the count is high and I raise my bet to 8 units, it hurts a lot worse to pull a 20 (or even two hands of 20) only to see the dealer flip over a nice T-A 21.

The way my luck was last weekend, I never even got a chance to buy insurance. The ten was always the up card.

 

[Doofus]

Sorry to say this but, I think you are not *there* yet.

*There*? Other than having a bigger bankroll, I have arrived. And since I don't play this game but once every four to six weeks I don't need to lug 25K with me to the casino.

For an AP with the proper "SKILLZ" there is no such thing as the "Long run."

What "SKILLZ"? The "SKILLZ" to know when Mr. Negative Variation has arrived, so as to stay away from the casino that day?

 

[Doofus]

I was just wondering to what extent or how often or whatever you may go to or not to discover, in some sort of way, how "normal" your results were. Or how unlikely or not the bad luck you experienced actually was.

I don't run a sim, if that's what you're asking. But heck, I know enough that three days of playing can produce a 300 unit loss and not be unusual. But my point in opening up this thread is to discuss just how mentally difficult it would be for me to lost 100 units each on a Friday and Saturday and be able to go back into the casino on Sunday. I think my Stop-Loss-O-Meter would keep me from doing that, even though as an AP that's probably the worst thing I can do. As a human and a husband who has to report to Mrs. Doofus, however, I don't think I could face a 300 unit losing weekend. At least not without having had a 300 unit winning weekend immediately prior. And I haven't had one of those yet.

 

[Doofus]

Know you have the correct bankroll to be playing with.

You know, I am actually pondering this option. As a recreational player I don't have a separate account devoted just to my blackjack play. But I think I probably ought to establish one. The problem is the deal that I have with the warden, er, with Mrs. Doofus requires that she tolerates my solo blackjack trips so long as I hand over the winnings upon my return for her to spend on shoes, handbags, and clothes. When I don't have anything to give her, she gets pissed and thinks I have been spending my money on steakhouses and whores. Of course she may be half right.

 

[blackchipjim]

banks

A long time ago my bj playing was met with similiar circumstances. I would win and the wife would need money to play slots ugghh. I had to put a stop to it because it was chewing the profit up. You are not alone in your neg var bout. Anyone who plays for any amount of time will attest to the fact and it will happen. How you handle it makes you the ap that you are. I would take a long break from it and catch your breath save your money up and I do mean your money. Then attack again with the vengence that you know you are able to do. Your gambling kitty should be your kitty and don't share. blackchipjim

 

[Kasi]

I don't run a sim, if that's what you're asking. But heck, I know enough that three days of playing can produce a 300 unit loss and not be unusual. But my point in opening up this thread is to discuss just how mentally difficult it would be for me to lost 100 units each on a Friday and Saturday and be able to go back into the casino on Sunday. I think my Stop-Loss-O-Meter would keep me from doing that, even though as an AP that's probably the worst thing I can do. As a human and a husband who has to report to Mrs. Doofus, however, I don't think I could face a 300 unit losing weekend. At least not without having had a 300 unit winning weekend immediately prior. And I haven't had one of those yet.

Well I guess that was what I was asking in a roundabout way lol.

In your case maybe many sims lol since it sounds like maybe you play alot of different games alot of different ways. Maybe spreading 5-200 at times, maybe increasing bets at each TC from 4 to 6. Maybe spreading to 2 hands of 8 units or maybe not. Maybe both shoe games and DD games, maybe both play-all and back counting or something in between. Maybe you are betting to a $25K roll or maybe each trip is its own roll easily replenishable. Surely some of those games would likely have a different unit size in dollars? Maybe not? Maybe you're playing each of them with a lot of different RORs. Maybe not. Some backcounting scenarios in some games might have 0 chance of losing 300 units in 24 hours play.

Not to mention, if you always give every win to the boss and absorb every loss, whatever roll you may be playing to will obviously be gone at some point unless you "put it back" lol.

And if such losses actually are "normal", say within 1 stan dev, you really better get used to it lol. What would you consider a "normal" win (EV) to be for that much play?

Any chance you're a Hi-Lo player? If so, maybe at least pick one of Don's tables that's a similar game you play and/or maybe try Psim with some basic spread you usually as a start. Something is better than nothing. Be happy to help you with either of those. If you are Hi-Lo, all I really need are the rules of your game(s) and the pen level in case you want to pursue this in a little more detail.

Just throwing a bunch of stuff at you because I think you're really close to taking your play to a higher level and it's not that hard to get at least a clearer idea of what to expect from your play. Blah blah blah lol.

 

[EasyRhino]

Mrs. Doofus requires that she tolerates my solo blackjack trips so long as I hand over the winnings upon my return

If done with a fixed bankroll, that would probably guarantee a 100% risk of ruin.

 

[mdlbj]

You know, I am actually pondering this option. As a recreational player I don't have a separate account devoted just to my blackjack play. But I think I probably ought to establish one. The problem is the deal that I have with the warden, er, with Mrs. Doofus requires that she tolerates my solo blackjack trips so long as I hand over the winnings upon my return for her to spend on shoes, handbags, and clothes. When I don't have anything to give her, she gets pissed and thinks I have been spending my money on steakhouses and whores. Of course she may be half right.

Haha, roger that..

 

[Doofus]

Well I guess that was what I was asking in a roundabout way lol.

In your case maybe many sims lol since it sounds like maybe you play alot of different games alot of different ways. Maybe spreading 5-200 at times, maybe increasing bets at each TC from 4 to 6. Maybe spreading to 2 hands of 8 units or maybe not. Maybe both shoe games and DD games, maybe both play-all and back counting or something in between. Maybe you are betting to a $25K roll or maybe each trip is its own roll easily replenishable. Surely some of those games would likely have a different unit size in dollars? Maybe not? Maybe you're playing each of them with a lot of different RORs. Maybe not. Some backcounting scenarios in some games might have 0 chance of losing 300 units in 24 hours play.

Not to mention, if you always give every win to the boss and absorb every loss, whatever roll you may be playing to will obviously be gone at some point unless you "put it back" lol.

And if such losses actually are "normal", say within 1 stan dev, you really better get used to it lol. What would you consider a "normal" win (EV) to be for that much play?

Any chance you're a Hi-Lo player? If so, maybe at least pick one of Don's tables that's a similar game you play and/or maybe try Psim with some basic spread you usually as a start. Something is better than nothing. Be happy to help you with either of those. If you are Hi-Lo, all I really need are the rules of your game(s) and the pen level in case you want to pursue this in a little more detail.

Just throwing a bunch of stuff at you because I think you're really close to taking your play to a higher level and it's not that hard to get at least a clearer idea of what to expect from your play. Blah blah blah lol.

I tend to play S17 6 deck and DD that has reasonable pen (which is not so common anymore). And HiLo, being the easiest count, is the one I use. In DD I use a 1-8 spread and in 6 deck 1-20, though lately I have started gagging and wheezing when the count suggests I put out more than 10 units, seeing as most of my losses have come in those instances.

 

[wvbjplayer]

Are we not all degenerate gambler or something at heart. The thrill ? The hunt? The action? The kill or thrill of being killed ?

That's scurry!