Thunder said:
You bet preflop and he called you. The odds of him having a pair of kings after the flop are roughly around 6.5%
This is where your argument goes awry. Once you have a read or someone has bet, you can no longer use strict probabilities - you must use
conditional probabilities.
The probability of someone
being dealt AA before the flop is about 1%. But once you start gathering information, the probability of someone
having AA is no longer 1%. Perhaps they have a tell whenever they have a premium hand (e.g. their hand shakes), or perhaps they have a specific betting pattern (e.g. 5x BB = AA). Either way, the probability of them having AA might be 0%, or it might be 100% - the probability that they were dealt AA is no longer relevant.
There is no way to say that the odds of him having a pair of kings after the flop are around 6.5% unless you've got some great information about his betting pattern.
Thunder said:
While you may be risking an additional $30 to reraise him, it's worth it considering that if you do win, you'll get at least $33 back not including rake. If you lose, you've lost $45. Therefore you need at least a 64% chance of winning to justify the pot odds. In this scenario, I believe your odds of winning if you reraise him are better than 64% since very very few people would call that reraise without having a pair of kings or better.
Are you serious? This is horrendous math.
Let's look at a simple model.
(1) Opponent folds immediately. Payout = +10+15 = +25
(2) Opponent calls. Payout = P(win)*(10+30)-P(lose)*(10+30)
(3) Opponent reraises, you fold. Payout = -10-30 = -40
If you assume the other player has a random hand and neither of you bet on the turn or river, then P(win) = .52, and the EV of this move is simply:
EV = P(folds)*25+P(calls)*1.6-P(reraise)*40
The probability of him folding has to be about 42/65, or 65%, for this to work. I believe this is the number that you're calculating, but look at the assumptions - your opponent has to have a RANDOM hand and there can be no further betting.
Your opponent does not have a random hand, and there will be more betting.