Shuffle Tracking
I have read only 3 blackjack books: Revere's book, Mezrich's book (which I now understand is largely fiction), and The Ultimate Edge. I am by no means a pro, so please bear with me.
I found a series of articles that Mark Billings wrote for the blackjack Insider. Apropos the above argument about beatable shuffles, here's part of what he said:
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The edge in shuffle tracking works much like the edge in regular blackjack. Just because the being dealt is blackjack does not mean a card counter can beat it. Whether or not a game can be beaten (or can be beaten to the tune of .5%, or 1%, or whatever) is based upon a number of factors:
- the number of decks in use
- the rules employed
- the depth of the deal (i.e., do they deal out 2 decks out of 6, 3 out of 6, or 4 out of 6?)
- the bet spread you can get away with
Similarly, not all shuffles are trackable, and some shuffles are more trackable than others. For example:
1. Autoshufflers almost certainly cannot be tracked. I don't know this for sure; one way to know would be to buy one, put 6 new decks through it (so you would know the exact order of the cards going in), and then check out the order in which they come out. Do this a couple of thousand times, and you might be able to detect some pattern that remains after going through the machine. (I doubt it; however, I've never done the research, so there is no way for me to know for sure.)
2. There are a number of shuffles that sufficiently randomize cards from one shoe to the next. It doesn’t matter what you do; if certain clumps do not maintain their integrity throughout the shuffle, then shuffle tracking will not obtain you an edge.
To put this in card counting terms: imagine a 6-deck game in which the cards are reshuffled after 3 decks come out, Reno rules (double 10 and 11 only, dealer hits soft 17), and you are limited to a bet spread of 1-4. It doesn't matter who you are; you just can't beat that game.
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Again, I'm no expert, but this sounds pretty reasonable to me.