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  1. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    I don't know if this has been discussed before but would it be possible for someone to run a sim to determine how many times hard 17 loses to 9, 10 and ACE? I would assume one hundred thousand hands would be sufficient, but I do not own and have never used the sim programs. I'm trying to determine if surrendering hard 17 (mostly on high counts of course) is more profitable than the conventional wave off.
    I know BS tells us in the long term standing is the best way to act, but for some reason, I don't think so.
    Maybe it's because I remember the hands I lose moreso than the hands I win :laugh:
    I would use rules such as the Northeast uses:
    8 deck, h17, das, dbl any two, ls etc.
    6 deck, s17 same as above.
    Thanks in advance.
  2. PierceNation

    PierceNation Well-Known Member

    17 vs 9,10 or Ace is a losing hand period.

    Standing as opposed to hitting on 17 keeps your losses to a minimum.

    EDIT: It would be interesting to see the results of that SIM tho if anyone can oblige...
  3. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    I know, nothing like a mid to max bet with hard 17 vs. one of those 3 cards. In my mind, I'm thinking surrendering and standing are the same or maybe a little better one way. I'm requesting the sim to determine just that.
  4. Freightman

    Freightman Active Member

    There is no surrender index for 17 v 10. There is a reason for it. Grit your teeth and stand.
  5. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    I think gritting my teeth and standing would be the ignorant way to go about it if it's a possibility to determine the math behind it. Unfortunate for me, I am not the math genius that some of you are. Come on, all these great minds and you're telling me there is no index for this type of play. There has to be. I'm sure I'm not the only one who can think outside the box :cool:
  6. Freightman

    Freightman Active Member

    Don't ask for advice and then come back with some assinine retort. The reaon ther is no surrender in dex is because surrender is a losing play. The math is very simple. It is more profitable to stand then surrender. I'm not going to waste my time explaining further.

    Now, if it's short term results you are after - then do what you want.
  7. FLASH1296

    FLASH1296 Well-Known Member

    If you win a hand over 25% of the time you do not surrender at a neutral count.

    For your hard 17 over 75% of the time is extremely unlikely.

    Capiche ?
  8. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    Wow, I don't know how you took my response, but grow up.
  9. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    Thanks Mr. Flash, at least you can come up with something for me to ponder.
    I appreciate the response.
  10. Freightman

    Freightman Active Member

    I took as you being hard headed and stubborn, refusing to acknowledge the obvious, and without basic understanding of the surrender principle. If these observations are in fact correct, then it would be my recommendation you invest your bankroll with a financial planner as I don't believe this game is for you.
  11. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    Well Mr. Freightman, I see what you are saying and could see why you would think so. Fact is, you don't know me. I can assure you I am more than capable, but would never attempt to belittle someone with knowledge I have or may think I have. Maybe I asked the question the wrong way, or maybe you can't give me the answer I'm looking for. If all you can give is a general statement like you gave, thanks for your answer, I appreciate it and my response was in no way meant to disrespect you. I will approach others via PM who I think can help to avoid misunderstandings like this one.
  12. Canceler

    Canceler Well-Known Member

    Anytime you say you don't believe BS you're opening yourself up to a certain amount of harassment. ;)

    You could just look at EV tables (Archive copy) instead of running a sim.
  13. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    Tough Crowd

    Yeah thanks :eek: it's not that I meant I was going against BS, I've been counting long enough to know where my advantage is. Thanks for the advice, I will check that link out. I received a PM explaining just what I was looking for.
  14. IcyM

    IcyM Member

    Just 2 cents here; Wong says to surrender 17 vs dealer A in H17 games. That's just 1 variation of rules, so I'm not sure how many different rules you'd want to consider if you do decide to sim 100k hands. If any1 does feel free to post results.
  15. Sucker

    Sucker Well-Known Member

    The OP asked a perfectly legitimate question. Just because YOU were too lazy to learn all of the indices for YOUR system is no reason to call him "asinine".

    There IS a surrender index index for 17 v A, 17 v 10, 17 v 9, and even 17 v 8. Most of the time they're not included in level 1 counting systems, but they do exist. If you're using a multilevel count, depending upon WHICH system you are using (and also whether or not your system is ace-reckoned) the index numbers will be different. For example; with an ace-reckoned Hi-Lo system it's correct to surrender 17 v 10 at a count of +16 or higher (Remember, we're talking about late surrender here).
  16. Sucker

    Sucker Well-Known Member

    In a nutshell. But if you're figuring it this way, don't forget to count your pushes as half a win!
  17. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    Thanks, I use the simple hi-lo with no side counts. I am learning the hard way to just ask specific people certain questions. Thanks again, much appreciated.
  18. Freightman

    Freightman Active Member

    You happen to be right - there is actually an index for everything - however, lets not get sidetracked by the ridiculous minutae of some indexes, like spilitting 10's v 2, surrendering 17 v 10, though I will wait with baited breath for my next 17 v 10 with TC17 and surrender with enthusiasm.

    The op is obviously a newbie, and did in fact ask a very simple and very legitimate question. 17 v 10 is not a promising situation. My answer of grit your teeth means exactly that - pass and hope for the best - as it is your best long term result - so why did I pounce on him?. Lets have a look at his answer.

    "I think gritting my teeth and standing would be the ignorant way to go about it ..........Come on, all these great minds and you're telling me there is no index for this type of play. There has to be. I'm sure I'm not the only one who can think outside the box "

    The purpose of these forums, among other things is to learn. If the op is going to ask for advice, which he did, get it, which he got, he should not retort in the manner which he did (unless he can justify it - which he can't) - which was insulting - Now seriously, I would not have wasted my time responding to his question had I known he would have responded with an assinine retort - there - I said it again.

    BTW your TC 17 is also correct for halves, which I use, and I might add, with a high degree of effectiveness.
  19. blackjacktilt

    blackjacktilt Well-Known Member

    Dude, drop it. Thanks for the meaningful parts of your post, the other crap is not needed. I've received what I was looking for. Again, I was not intending to "offend" you. (that part made me laugh by the way). And yes, I'm a noob. Been in the game for a while, but still learning. If you knew that, and you are so great at what you do, you should have just given me useful info.
  20. iCountNTrack

    iCountNTrack Well-Known Member

    It is hard for me to imagine locking a thread in the theory and and math section.
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