Have people had "bad luck" in their first few outings
- Thread starter BJLFS
- Start date
That's why I put it in quotes.
distractTHEdealer
Member
"bad luck"
"Bad luck" really nothing more than getting too excited. Not having adequate bankroll to bet optimally during high counts. Lacking patience. Not betting the absolute minimum during <zero counts. I only say this because it happened to me. Adequate bankroll is the most important thing. Unless you have a good cover to stand around and look like a creeper all night wonging in and out, you need to have some BANK! Although thanks to the advice of a few members, I am beginning to make a wonderful creeper... :grin: :grin: :grin:
See "wonging" in card counting
"Bad luck" really nothing more than getting too excited. Not having adequate bankroll to bet optimally during high counts. Lacking patience. Not betting the absolute minimum during <zero counts. I only say this because it happened to me. Adequate bankroll is the most important thing. Unless you have a good cover to stand around and look like a creeper all night wonging in and out, you need to have some BANK! Although thanks to the advice of a few members, I am beginning to make a wonderful creeper... :grin: :grin: :grin:
See "wonging" in card counting
"Bad luck" really nothing more than getting too excited. Not having adequate bankroll to bet optimally during high counts. Lacking patience. Not betting the absolute minimum during <zero counts. I only say this because it happened to me. Adequate bankroll is the most important thing. Unless you have a good cover to stand around and look like a creeper all night wonging in and out, you need to have some BANK! Although thanks to the advice of a few members, I am beginning to make a wonderful creeper... :grin: :grin: :grin:
See "wonging" in card counting
I have an adequate bankroll. It just that I'm on a losing streak ...... LOL. Is it just, in a sense, "negative variance"?
NightStalker
Well-Known Member
Some does and some doesn't
I was one of the lucky ones to boost up my bankroll in my first sprint..
But there are many who do go broke before establishing a stable state..
There are only few counters who actually make any significant money by counting cards. Try to re-evaluate your game. If you feel confident, just keep it going and you shall be good..
I was one of the lucky ones to boost up my bankroll in my first sprint..
But there are many who do go broke before establishing a stable state..
There are only few counters who actually make any significant money by counting cards. Try to re-evaluate your game. If you feel confident, just keep it going and you shall be good..
BTW I am going back and studying the charts, etc. Thanks though.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
I'll bet there are many 'careers' that ended after the first session or two, never really giving themselves a chance.
I too consider myself very lucky.
I didn't boost my very underfunded bankroll early on, like NightStalker, but I didn't lose it either. My first two years I made very limited profits, somewhere close to EV, but I needed every penny of that to live on. I wasn't able to grow my bankroll at all, until I hit a positive variance stretch a couple years in. Luckily I didn't hit a negative variance stretch during that time or it would have wiped me out and I would have been finished before I really got started. 
I'll bet there are many 'careers' that ended after the first session or two, never really giving themselves a chance.
I too consider myself very lucky.
Thank you.
aslan
Well-Known Member
I won the first 7 outings as I recall. The 8th was a bear. I lost most of my prior winnings. It was a real eye-opener and made me realize that when they say so much an hour in the long run, that's exactly what they mean. If you win a lot over your expected win rate, I wouldn't be quick to spend it. It may come in handy during bad times.
I would take a close look at your losses. Be hard on yourself and make sure that the losses cannot be attributed to mistakes in your play. If you feel you did everything as well as can be expected, then take your losses as a great lesson in the art and science of card counting. If you survive, and you most likely will if you're not underfunded, then this lesson will serve you well down the line when you are winning more than you are losing. Don't be discouraged. Just don't wager what you cannot afford to lose.
What a lot of people don't realize is when it is said there is a win rate of say $11 - for H17 - that the SD could be $416!! So, one could still play perfect counting and lose a lot of money. My point being is the player is not necessarily to blame. Furthermore they could still be even very close to the approximate win rate and still be losing $$$. For example very close of +/- 6%of the SD and still lose money; .06 X 416 is slightly over $24 so say with an average win of $11 you could still be in the range of constantly losing $13/hour. Again it's just variance and not the fault of the player. But if you play long enough then the $11/hr. will come to fruition.
aslan
Well-Known Member
That's how I understand it. That also means that those large winning sessions beyond one's expected win rate are more illusory than real--they have to be viewed as averaged in over time.
BJgenius007
Well-Known Member
I think I am a lucky one.
I think I am one of the few lucky one.
I learned card counting when I was in college in upper state of NY. For my first 14 trips to Atlantic City, I won each of them. That streak was broken when I first visited Las Vegas. I think it is because I didn't adjust my playing because in AC, dealers always stay at soft 17 but a lot of LV casinos hit H17.
My advice to a new counter is to practice against computer and record every session result. You are ready for the real thing only if you are 500 units ahead of your minimal bet. And I remember in my first few trips, I played perfect basic strategy only/ no index play but I spread correctly according to true count. It cuts your winning by half but as a beginner, you build the confidence by place bet and play 100% correctly.
I think I am one of the few lucky one.
I learned card counting when I was in college in upper state of NY. For my first 14 trips to Atlantic City, I won each of them. That streak was broken when I first visited Las Vegas. I think it is because I didn't adjust my playing because in AC, dealers always stay at soft 17 but a lot of LV casinos hit H17.
My advice to a new counter is to practice against computer and record every session result. You are ready for the real thing only if you are 500 units ahead of your minimal bet. And I remember in my first few trips, I played perfect basic strategy only/ no index play but I spread correctly according to true count. It cuts your winning by half but as a beginner, you build the confidence by place bet and play 100% correctly.
MountainMan
Well-Known Member
Don't judge your game by results at the table.
Your fooling yourself if you are making any judgments about your game by looking at your win\loss at the table. Try to judge your game by how many mistakes you make, how many time you lost the count, etc.
The normal variance is so great in any given session that it overshadows your ability to draw meaningful conclusions about how you played.
Your fooling yourself if you are making any judgments about your game by looking at your win\loss at the table. Try to judge your game by how many mistakes you make, how many time you lost the count, etc.
The normal variance is so great in any given session that it overshadows your ability to draw meaningful conclusions about how you played.
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
Early On
on their first outing about half of players lose, it's probably higher then that due to inexperience.
The highest point for variance vs ev will be early on in play.
So early play is the most dangerous.
:joker::whip:
on their first outing about half of players lose, it's probably higher then that due to inexperience.
The highest point for variance vs ev will be early on in play.
So early play is the most dangerous.
:joker::whip:
Polarbearsolvent
Member
A big thing that I have come to appreciate is the N0 of the game that you play (the number of hands it takes for your result to be within one StdDev of expectation). N0 is a scary number of hands, even on a good game, and I have heard it suggested that if you are going for an AP career, that 4*N0 hands in a year is a good goal to have a loss for the year at a pretty acceptable probability.
Personally, I did extremely well at the start of my AP-ing but happen to find myself in a painful loosing streak. But, sadly they happen. If you are playing as a full time job, you can have loosing streaks that are a couple of weeks long; that is pretty depressing to consider.
Those big losses though help build your resolve. You re-examine your play and chop out any mistakes you might be making and from there solidify your trust in the math. When you can loose a lot of money and honestly tell yourself "I did everything how I should have" it is a good milestone.
Personally, I did extremely well at the start of my AP-ing but happen to find myself in a painful loosing streak. But, sadly they happen. If you are playing as a full time job, you can have loosing streaks that are a couple of weeks long; that is pretty depressing to consider.
Those big losses though help build your resolve. You re-examine your play and chop out any mistakes you might be making and from there solidify your trust in the math. When you can loose a lot of money and honestly tell yourself "I did everything how I should have" it is a good milestone.
kewljason
Well-Known Member
A couple weeks??
I have experienced 3 month + long losing streaks both this year and last year. And this is mild to other experineces I have heard of.
blackjack avenger
Well-Known Member
A Long Painful Career
As the length of your career increases you will have longer and longer losing streaks.
:joker::whip:
As the length of your career increases you will have longer and longer losing streaks.
:joker::whip:
aslan
Well-Known Member
:yikes: Say it isn't so!!!! :joker: :whip:
kewljason
Well-Known Member
I am sure it IS so. :sad: BJ avenger wouldn't lied to us. :laugh: Larger sample size will produce larger swings, both positive and negative. Makes sense to me.
But the difference is the player will be better prepared mentally and hopefully financially to handle these periods having gone through a couple, even smaller ones before. It's that first significant down swing for a prolonged period that really tests a new inexperienced player. Makes one question everything he knows to be true. Reading about it and expecting such a period only can prepare you so much for actually going through such. It really is something you have to experience. As a player who's dependant on BJ earning for a living, I have to take money from my bankroll peroidically. Not on a regualarly scheduled basis like weekly or monthly. I take a portion of EV a couple times a year during positive variance times only. I could actually go about a year without doing so if necessary. I do it this way because taking money out regualarly, like during a negative variance period would only compound the sensation of bankroll shrinkage. But even without taking money out during these times, there is still an overwhelming feeling of money going out and nothing coming in when these losing days stretch into weeks and months. Can be very trying!