Help me decide (a little personal)

[karlmaj]

Hi,
I was completely influenced by that movie 21 to card count. It seems to me very exciting. I don't have a bankroll back then; in fact I used a part of my student loan to start with. I experienced a positive variance quickly, and my money grew from 60 to 500 dollars in about 6 sessions (2-3 hours/session). I thought that I am doing everything right, I thought my counting skills were great and accurate. I used the Hi-Lo count and memorized Wong's index at the appendix of Professional Blackjack.
I got greedy and tried to master the halves count. I went to the casino and tried it. I didn't understand risk of ruin, I didn't have a planned bet spread, didn't know every important and critical points in card counting, besides counting quickly under 20 seconds. Also, I was flat-betting, though I know that when the count is a positive I must increase my bet to some degree. But I didn't know how much. I experienced a negative variance, got emotional, and bet wildly.
I lost the whole 500 dollars in two sessions. I decided to stop, thinking that I do not have the time, possibly the skill, to card count effectively.
It was about 5 months ago since my last step in the casino. I got a job, while studying as an undergraduate in a research-oriented college of UCSD.
I have about 2000 dollars in the bank, totally from my job. I know that I should have at least 5000 dollars to bring down my RoR safely for play. I'm planning to continue my card counting. Is my bankroll of 2000 dollars enough or should I wait until I have a little bit more? Well, I have a replenishable bankroll. Also, regarding the experience I had 5 months ago, is that really normal? I mean I won slowly but consistently, then I lost big that I can't believe it.
Help me decide if I will continue or not.
Thanks a lot.

 

[creeping panther]

karl

Hi,
I was completely influenced by that movie 21 to card count. It seems to me very exciting. I don't have a bankroll back then; in fact I used a part of my student loan to start with. I experienced a positive variance quickly, and my money grew from 60 to 500 dollars in about 6 sessions (2-3 hours/session). I thought that I am doing everything right, I thought my counting skills were great and accurate. I used the Hi-Lo count and memorized Wong's index at the appendix of Professional Blackjack.
I got greedy and tried to master the halves count. I went to the casino and tried it. I didn't understand risk of ruin, I didn't have a planned bet spread, didn't know every important and critical points in card counting, besides counting quickly under 20 seconds. Also, I was flat-betting, though I know that when the count is a positive I must increase my bet to some degree. But I didn't know how much. I experienced a negative variance, got emotional, and bet wildly.
I lost the whole 500 dollars in two sessions. I decided to stop, thinking that I do not have the time, possibly the skill, to card count effectively.
It was about 5 months ago since my last step in the casino. I got a job, while studying as an undergraduate in a research-oriented college of UCSD.
I have about 2000 dollars in the bank, totally from my job. I know that I should have at least 5000 dollars to bring down my RoR safely for play. I'm planning to continue my card counting. Is my bankroll of 2000 dollars enough or should I wait until I have a little bit more? Well, I have a replenishable bankroll. Also, regarding the experience I had 5 months ago, is that really normal? I mean I won slowly but consistently, then I lost big that I can't believe it.
Help me decide if I will continue or not.
Thanks a lot.

karl,

Hi-lo is a fine count use that. You also lost your discipline, a major downfall.

You must find a very good $5 table with that bankroll or better yet just wong in for several trips to the casino.

Learn indice play and don't play with scared money.

Yes you can lose all you won in several sessions in just one session, this you must avoid and you can. That will come later.

Stay cool.

Keep reading this site.

CP

 

[HarryKuntz]

Hi,
I was completely influenced by that movie 21 to card count. It seems to me very exciting. I don't have a bankroll back then; in fact I used a part of my student loan to start with. I experienced a positive variance quickly, and my money grew from 60 to 500 dollars in about 6 sessions (2-3 hours/session). I thought that I am doing everything right, I thought my counting skills were great and accurate. I used the Hi-Lo count and memorized Wong's index at the appendix of Professional Blackjack.
I got greedy and tried to master the halves count. I went to the casino and tried it. I didn't understand risk of ruin, I didn't have a planned bet spread, didn't know every important and critical points in card counting, besides counting quickly under 20 seconds. Also, I was flat-betting, though I know that when the count is a positive I must increase my bet to some degree. But I didn't know how much. I experienced a negative variance, got emotional, and bet wildly.
I lost the whole 500 dollars in two sessions. I decided to stop, thinking that I do not have the time, possibly the skill, to card count effectively.
It was about 5 months ago since my last step in the casino. I got a job, while studying as an undergraduate in a research-oriented college of UCSD.
I have about 2000 dollars in the bank, totally from my job. I know that I should have at least 5000 dollars to bring down my RoR safely for play. I'm planning to continue my card counting. Is my bankroll of 2000 dollars enough or should I wait until I have a little bit more? Well, I have a replenishable bankroll. Also, regarding the experience I had 5 months ago, is that really normal? I mean I won slowly but consistently, then I lost big that I can't believe it.
Help me decide if I will continue or not.
Thanks a lot.

If you've decided to count cards for excitement, thrills and easy money then think again. In a casino, excitement and thrills are for gamblers. Card counting is a repetitive grind that is boring and must be emotionless, it isn't even very profitable. It doesn't surprise me that you lost your $500, infact it should have been expected, the $480 you made was simply positive variance - how could it be anything else if you didn't fully know exactly what you were doing? It sounds like you still have a lot to learn.

If your a geek looking for a hobby and enjoy studying then carry on studying counting but stay away from the casino's for a while. Decide on a system to use and stick to it, (I wouldn't suggest halves just yet - HiLo or KO are a good places to start), practise, practise, practise, learn more and study the weak parts of your game such as ROR, spreading, BR management, etc. When you can prove your skills are spot on & and your whole system is infallible using simulators, you're ready to play. If your interested in the MIT team & 21, then read about their "checkout" procedure. You'll then understand what was required of the team before they could step foot in a casino, you should aim somewhere near. Save your $2000 and use it to get through college, hopefully after this point you won't need to worry about a proper BR.

If you looking for fun and excitement then forget about blackjack.

Blackjack is for losers and geeks!

Best of Luck,

 

[KOLAN]

wong in +1
for safe play maximum bet x30 =bank
if yours max bet is 65 65x30=1950 it is ok

 

[1357111317]

Wow for once I actually understood what Kolan said.

While he says you should have 30 max bets I think the general consensus is that you should have at least 60-100 max bets. Its pretty easy to drop 10 max bets in a session. Couple bad sessions and you are wiped out. Also this completely depends on your risk tolerance as well. More tolerance to risk then you might be ok with 30 MB's.

 

[callipygian]

On top of the things posted here, I'd like to add that I think you should finish your studies first before attempting card counting again.

I'm assuming you're in some kind of technical field, since you realize UCSD is a research-oriented school. Note that all the money you've worked for months to accumulate is going to be peanuts when you graduate and get a real job. You're trying to scrape up a bankroll working $10/hr sweeping floors when, if you are a top recruiting prospect, you could be given that entire bankroll amount as a signing bonus. If you're in an ... how do I put this politely ... non-financially-rewarding major, you might have even further to go because, frankly, you'll probably be sweeping floors for $10/hr after you graduate given this economy.

My advice, in order that I think you should do it:

Step 1: Enjoy your remaining time at UCSD. Finish strong. Solidify your friendships.
Step 2: Get a good job. (Start looking before your graduate, UCSD will have some fantastic resources not available to the general public.)
Step 3: Pay off your student loans.
Step 4: Build a 3-6 month cushion of living expenses so that you're not broke if you lose your job.
Step 5: Build a blackjack bankroll. Study up.
Step 6: Return to the casino.

 

[johndoe]

I agree completely, except for the student loan part. If the rate is low (<5%) I would drag them out as long as possible. Cheap money, often less than inflation.

 

[KOLAN]

duble yours (Couple bad sessions) and same results.

 

[bjtocki]

Hi,
I was completely influenced by that movie 21 to card count. It seems to me very exciting.

As I know, that movie was created by MGM (the MIT team hit MGM casino too :laugh. This actually boosted casino's bottom line, go figure. Check out the article about "21 Movie - Truth and Fiction" at

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/21movie.html

and also at

http://www.historyvshollywood.com/reelfaces/21mitblackjack.php

 

[EasyRhino]

Hi,
I didn't understand risk of ruin, I didn't have a planned bet spread, didn't know every important and critical points in card counting, besides counting quickly under 20 seconds. Also, I was flat-betting, though I know that when the count is a positive I must increase my bet to some degree. But I didn't know how much. I experienced a negative variance, got emotional, and bet wildly.

You pretty much nailed the things you did wrong.

- Flat-betting will not get you an advantage
- You didn't have a betting plan matched against your bankroll
- You got emotional

Any one of these can sink your game entirely. Don't think about trying again until you have them all nailed dwn. But even worse, even if you do everything right, then variance can quickly wipe out a small bankroll. (gets back to studying risk of ruin).

So even with the job, you're still short bankrolled, and you you're not up to snuff technically, and you probably have better things to do with your time. Plus, the games in San Diego county aren't particularly good for card counting.

Have fun.

 

[callipygian]

I agree completely, except for the student loan part. If the rate is low (<5%) I would drag them out as long as possible. Cheap money, often less than inflation.

In my experience, which admittedly was a while ago, student loans are very cheap (often 0%) while you're still in school and after you graduate start ramping up until they border on usury after 3-5 years.

 

[bj bob]

On top of the things posted here, I'd like to add that I think you should finish your studies first before attempting card counting again.
My advice, in order that I think you should do it:

Step 1: Enjoy your remaining time at UCSD. Finish strong. Solidify your friendships.
Step 2: Get a good job. (Start looking before your graduate, UCSD will have some fantastic resources not available to the general public.)
Step 3: Pay off your student loans.
Step 4: Build a 3-6 month cushion of living expenses so that you're not broke if you lose your job.
Step 5: Build a blackjack bankroll. Study up.
Step 6: Return to the casino.

I did those very same things, Calli ; unfortunately not in that exact order. :cry::cry:

 

[Mimosine]

Wow for once I actually understood what Kolan said.

that should cause immediate suspicion!

 

[MoneyPlays]

Finer Points

Hi,
I was completely influenced by that movie 21 to card count. It seems to me very exciting. I don't have a bankroll back then; in fact I used a part of my student loan to start with. I experienced a positive variance quickly, and my money grew from 60 to 500 dollars in about 6 sessions (2-3 hours/session). I thought that I am doing everything right, I thought my counting skills were great and accurate. I used the Hi-Lo count and memorized Wong's index at the appendix of Professional Blackjack.
I got greedy and tried to master the halves count. I went to the casino and tried it. I didn't understand risk of ruin, I didn't have a planned bet spread, didn't know every important and critical points in card counting, besides counting quickly under 20 seconds. Also, I was flat-betting, though I know that when the count is a positive I must increase my bet to some degree. But I didn't know how much. I experienced a negative variance, got emotional, and bet wildly.

Hmmm, Professional Blackjack by Stanford Wong, can't go wrong there. As near as I can tell, you skipped Chapter 14: Finer Points. Just about every reason you gave for your downfall is addressed in that chapter. Go back and read that chapter and you'll get a better idea of the risk involved.

It's easy to get caught up in the excitement of playing Blackjack and the possibility of winning lots of money. Don't let it get you down, it happens to just about everyone at one time or another. Just don't go back to the casino until you know what the worst case scenario is. And it doesn't hurt to have a big bankroll either.