help with edge on promo!

[baseball21]

Just wondering if anyone can help me with this one. 4 decks, 75% pen, DA2, DAS, resplit Aces, no surrender, S17. Also, the have a special rule. If you get a 6 card 21, you get $50, 7 card 21 = $100 and 8 card = $200. Table mins are $5. I was wondering if anyone could break this down for me. What is the house edge if you flat bet $5. Also, if anyone knows the frequency of receiving these special 6,7,8 hands.
Thanks
Baseball21

 

[1357111317]

Off the top if my head you probably probably just playing a breakeven game. Your BS would have to change to take advantage of these things if you playing 5 bucks. Stuff like hitting a 5 card 17, hitting 4 card 12's and 13's vs break cards etc.

 

[moo321]

I believe the 6 card paying 2 to 1 in Spanish if worth like .6 or .7%. So, very roughly guesstimating, I'd say it's worth maybe half a percent on a $5 bet? You could look at some spanish 21 strategy charts to get some ideas for strategy changes.

Guesses:
don't double 3 card 11 against T or Ace
don't double 3 card 10 vs. 8 or 9.
don't double 3 card 9 vs. 3, 4
Hit soft 19 vs. 9-A with 4 cards

 

[sabre]

A quick CVData sim shows the added advantage of each payoff based on a $5 bet

6 card 21 - .21%
7 card 21 - .034%
8+ card 21 - .005%

This is with basic strategy though. Play deviations may alter this quite a bit. Given that you have effective 10:1, 20:1 and 40:1 payouts ... You're probably only standing on a 5 card 20 and hitting all 6+ card hands.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

I believe the 6 card paying 2 to 1 in Spanish if worth like .6 or .7%. So, very roughly guesstimating, I'd say it's worth maybe half a percent on a $5 bet? You could look at some spanish 21 strategy charts to get some ideas for strategy changes.

Guesses:
don't double 3 card 11 against T or Ace
don't double 3 card 10 vs. 8 or 9.
don't double 3 card 9 vs. 3, 4
Hit soft 19 vs. 9-A with 4 cards

I don't know if the Spanish stuff would be 100% accurate for this promo though as this blackjack game has 10s.

 

[sabre]

You're getting paid 10:1, 20:1 and 40:1 on 6,7, and 8+ card 21s respectively.

Why does any remote part of the strategy used in a game with a 2:1 payout for 6 card 21s apply here?

 

[moo321]

I don't know if the Spanish stuff would be 100% accurate for this promo though as this blackjack game has 10s.

Yeah, I was just trying to get a ballpark number.

 

[Cardcounter]

The odds of a 6 card or 7 card 21 are almost zero. Your talking about a one in over a 300,000 shot maybe more. Can you hit it? Sure but it is unlikely.

 

[FLASH1296]

The Six Card auto-win is worth a teeny bit.
The Seven card … Miniscule.
The Eight card … Virtual Zero

p.s. Five Card automatic winners are of some meaningful value.

**************************************

 

[moo321]

The odds of a 6 card or 7 card 21 are almost zero. Your talking about a one in over a 300,000 shot maybe more. Can you hit it? Sure but it is unlikely.

That doesn't sound right at all... especially not with strategy changes, like hitting hard seventeen and eighteens.

 

[aslan]

That doesn't sound right at all... especially not with strategy changes, like hitting hard seventeen and eighteens.

If you had 7 cards totaling 20, would you hit your 20 in hopes of getting an ace and 40:1 odds, or take a likely win or tie with 20 against a dealer 10? If the count was +4, would that change anything?

 

[SleightOfHand]

If you had 7 cards totaling 20, would you hit your 20 in hopes of getting an ace and 40:1 odds, or take a likely win or tie with 20 against a dealer 10? If the count was +4, would that change anything?

EV of 20 v 10 for 6 decks- ~.55
Assume 3 aces were used in your 7 card 20, .0697 chance of getting an ace
EV of hitting 7 card 20 for 40:1 odds- ~1.7

Would I hit (assuming those conditions), yes.

At a count of +4, I would imagine that the EV is even higher (for ace reckoned counts). This is because more aces (and tens) are in the deck and they are the only card that will help your 20.

 

[aslan]

EV of 20 v 10 for 6 decks- ~.55
Assume 3 aces were used in your 7 card 20, .0697 chance of getting an ace
EV of hitting 7 card 20 for 40:1 odds- ~1.7

Would I hit (assuming those conditions), yes.

At a count of +4, I would imagine that the EV is even higher (for ace reckoned counts). This is because more aces (and tens) are in the deck and they are the only card that will help your 20.

I guessed as much. 40:1 is a lot of odds to reckon with. So now we have a good case for hitting 20!

In fact, you might get to hit 20 twice: A-A-A-2-2-3=20. Hit it, catch a K=20. Hit it again for hopefully another A!

I wonder if it is right to hit 21 twice? Example: A-A-A-2-2-2-2=21 (20 to 1 odds). Hit it, catch a K=21 (40 to 1 odds). Yikes! I think I'd hit it at +4; I don't know about a lower count. 20 to 1 is hard to pass up.