Hi-Lo good for flat bet wonging?

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

i dont have the bankroll to alter my bets with the count, so i was thinking of just doing something simple to lower the house edge (.45%).. only play when the running count is positive, flat bet $10, and use a few indexes based on a loose true count.. i think on average i would be playing at around half the house edge, which would be fine with me.. any thots?

 

[Kasi]

i dont have the bankroll to alter my bets with the count, so i was thinking of just doing something simple to lower the house edge (.45%).. only play when the running count is positive, flat bet $10, and use a few indexes based on a loose true count.. i think on average i would be playing at around half the house edge, which would be fine with me.. any thots?

Someone, anyone, please, please tell me I can give my thoughts on this despite being on bob's ignore list.

If not, at least tell him I think's it's brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Just the way I always envisioned how a vast knowledge of math and probability should be applied.

Finally, at last, exactly what the world's been so long waiting for, a way to lose all ur money in twice the time it usually takes and still be "fine" with it.

When that book comes out, I'm buying it.

 

[Sonny]

Hi-Lo is a great cout to use for backcounting. If you can avoid all counts where you are at a disadvantage then you can get a tiny advantage by flat betting. You will also have a much smaller chance of losing all your money.

-Sonny-

 

[moo321]

You should wait until a little above +2 TC, wong in and flat-bet, and wong out when the count drops to 0. You'll have an edge, and it fits your bankroll. I'm assuming this is completely a leisure activity, and you're not hoping to earn any sort of money from this?

 

[sagefr0g]

wouldn't the degree of advantage gleaned from flat betting when wonging into an positive count depend upon how many units the wager made is in relation to the bankroll ie. the hypothetical unit one would bet if one was playing all where the count was zero or negative? i guess what i'm trying to say is that the flat bet could be considered a bet spread therefore if done properly according to the count could yield a significant advantage.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

You should wait until a little above +2 TC, wong in and flat-bet, and wong out when the count drops to 0. You'll have an edge, and it fits your bankroll. I'm assuming this is completely a leisure activity, and you're not hoping to earn any sort of money from this?

i think thats the main problem with all gamblers, is that they are looking to make money.. it is a hobby, and you should be having fun, therefor gambling should be coming out of your entertainment money, and your first goal when you start counting is to break even, thus getting entertainment for free, which is what i am doing.. i think too many people skip this step, and think, i only have $2000, but im going to be making money so it doesnt matter if i bet $10-$100 spread! im gonna have $5000 in no time.. instead of thinking about breaking even and RoR.. i dont want to sit out more than 55% of the time tho.. i have found out that no, hi-lo is not good for flat betting, and that i need to find another system.. nobody seems to know the answer, except this 1 guy who recommended a 3 lvl count which is too complex for me.. im thinking that since insurance is the most profitable index (along with standing on 16 vs 10), i was thinking that maybe i could find a count that is good for insurance and maybe a couple other index moves, but most importantly, it also has to be good at wonging (pivot point)

 

[Sonny]

i dont want to sit out more than 55% of the time tho..

Then you won’t be playing a break even game no matter what card counting system you use. If you are trying to limit your losses then play as slowly as you can, flat bet the minimum and leave the table often. Take advantage of any promotions you can and try to get some comps in return for your play. If you want to play with an advantage then you will either need to play more aggressively or find better games.

-Sonny-

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Then you won’t be playing a break even game no matter what card counting system you use. If you are trying to limit your losses then play as slowly as you can, flat bet the minimum and leave the table often. Take advantage of any promotions you can and try to get some comps in return for your play. If you want to play with an advantage then you will either need to play more aggressively or find better games.

-Sonny-

if i play only when the RUNNING count is positive (that way i will be playing almost half of all hands), use the insurance and a few other indexes, and get comps, are you saying that i still wont be even? well the house edge is .43% on the 6 deck game i play, so how low will i bet able to get it to? at least in half i would think

 

[Sonny]

if i play only when the RUNNING count is positive (that way i will be playing almost half of all hands), use the insurance and a few other indexes, and get comps, are you saying that i still wont be even?

You would probably be playing a losing game from card counting but the comps might give you an advantage if you can max them out.

-Sonny-

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

my thot is that just because your still playing a losing game, doesnt mean that counting is pointless.. if you can cut the house edge in half, its worth it

 

[Sonny]

my thot is that just because your still playing a losing game, doesnt mean that counting is pointless.. if you can cut the house edge in half, its worth it

In that case I'd say you have a good chance of cutting the house edge in half.

-Sonny-

 

[RG1]

I'm no expert when it comes to EV but flat betting $10 only in positive running count shoes, using the numbers for Hi-Lo from blackjack attack which I believe include the illustrious 18, you get the following:

Assuming 100 hands/hour:

6 decks:
You'll play 55.00 hands and have a positive $2.35 EV/hour. (compared to negative $2.25 playing perfect BS)

8 decks:
You'll play 53.97 hands and have a positive $2.06 EV/hour. (compared to negative $2.37 playing perfect BS)

At this level, you should be earning about $3/hour in comps. (55 hands x $10/hand = $550 bet, $550 x 2% = $11 loss, $11 x 25% = $2.75 comps.) I don't know the comp rate but if you are playing at resorts you are probably getting less. This doesn't include the free $15 from Bally's, $10 from Harrahs, etc that most of us probably get in AC.

To make this more favorable the first thing to do is learn more indexes. The easiest thing you can do is spread to two or three hands of $10 in high positive counts. If you spread to 2 hands at +4 you increase your EV to $3.74 for 6 decks and $3.34 for 8 decks. Your third alternative would be to learn a count with a higher PE. Another would be to buy others doubles and splits, which may be or may not play into your strategy of telling everyone in the casino you are counting. The last thing I can think of is to find better games, better penetration, sloppy dealers, etc.

Edit: When I say compared to $ playing perfect BS I mean playing the same amount of hands, 54-55/hour, not knowing the count and playing perfect BS.

 

[Montreal Casino]

This is what i actually do seeing as my Casino has horrible rules. I just backcount, and wong in whenever i get a true count of plus 2, and bet a unit, then i simply wong out when the true count goes below two. However, the problem is that i rarely play any hands lol, i might play like 2-3 hands per shuffle, (8 deck), and it gets quite boring just standing around and watching. Also, most of the time i wong in and bet, and then leave right after and continue backcounting the table, i have to deal with all the people at the table lol. Some of the famous lines i hear;

" You change the flow of cards"
" You mess everything up by doing that"
" You only play one hand then leave, did you ever think about that?" i am still confused as to what he meant by this but anyways, yea, i have to find a better place.

 

[Brock Windsor]

This is what i actually do seeing as my Casino has horrible rules. I just backcount, and wong in whenever i get a true count of plus 2, and bet a unit, then i simply wong out when the true count goes below two. However, the problem is that i rarely play any hands lol, i might play like 2-3 hands per shuffle, (8 deck), and it gets quite boring just standing around and watching. .

You should play with a partner. Combine BR and watch double the number of tables to increase your hands per hour. Also the one good thing about this in Montreal is they have that back-bet feature. Bet table minimum on the front and the rest of the money behind it. You can add 0.2% to your expectation on the back bet. If that's not possible you could keep an eye open for a predictable BS player while counting, and shave 0.08% off the house edge by getting all your defensive splits for nothing.
BW
p.s. If you are willing to drive an hour and a half to HogansburgNY there is supposedly a better game there (6 deck with decent pen and $5 mins last I heard) at the Akwasasne casino. Dealers are probably faster as well.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

wouldn't the degree of advantage gleaned from flat betting when wonging into an positive count depend upon how many units the wager made is in relation to the bankroll ie. the hypothetical unit one would bet if one was playing all where the count was zero or negative? i guess what i'm trying to say is that the flat bet could be considered a bet spread therefore if done properly according to the count could yield a significant advantage.

your talking about a 0-1 spread, which is exactly what im doing

I'm no expert when it comes to EV but flat betting $10 only in positive running count shoes, using the numbers for Hi-Lo from blackjack attack which I believe include the illustrious 18, you get the following:

Assuming 100 hands/hour:

6 decks:
You'll play 55.00 hands and have a positive $2.35 EV/hour. (compared to negative $2.25 playing perfect BS)

8 decks:
You'll play 53.97 hands and have a positive $2.06 EV/hour. (compared to negative $2.37 playing perfect BS)

At this level, you should be earning about $3/hour in comps. (55 hands x $10/hand = $550 bet, $550 x 2% = $11 loss, $11 x 25% = $2.75 comps.) I don't know the comp rate but if you are playing at resorts you are probably getting less. This doesn't include the free $15 from Bally's, $10 from Harrahs, etc that most of us probably get in AC.

To make this more favorable the first thing to do is learn more indexes. The easiest thing you can do is spread to two or three hands of $10 in high positive counts. If you spread to 2 hands at +4 you increase your EV to $3.74 for 6 decks and $3.34 for 8 decks. Your third alternative would be to learn a count with a higher PE. Another would be to buy others doubles and splits, which may be or may not play into your strategy of telling everyone in the casino you are counting. The last thing I can think of is to find better games, better penetration, sloppy dealers, etc.

Edit: When I say compared to $ playing perfect BS I mean playing the same amount of hands, 54-55/hour, not knowing the count and playing perfect BS.

thanks for your help but i dont think thats right.. -.0043(edge)*10(bet)*70(hands per hour)=-$3/hr, and if i only play when the running count is positive (aka true count of 1/6 or greater), im not sure what my average count would be.. we all know the average count is 0 overall, but if i only played in positive running counts, what would my average count be.. you know what, this brings up a good point.. every1 looks at the true count of +1 and thinks "thats an even game" but nobody has asked, "what is the average positive count", meaning if you ignored all counts of 0 or less, what would the average count be? if that average is greater than a true count of 1, then that means playing at a positive running count would = an advantage (on average).. people have been telling me "at a +1 run count, the house still has the advantage" which is true, but that is only at that particular instance; the house edge of .0043 is the average of all the negative and positive swings, but if i cut out 90% of the negative swings (i still am in the negative with most low running counts), that would make my average probably positive, because i still have all the positive swings, but only 10% or so of the negative swings (due to only playing at + run counts).. this also means that the absolute worst house edge i would be playing at is -.35%, and the greatest advantage i would be playing at would be "infinite".. i got .35% by doing +1(run count)/6(decks)=1/6, so -.43%(house edge)*5/6=-.35 (i subtracted my small "advantage" i got from +1 running count at the beginning of the deck from the house edge)

 

[RG1]

your talking about a 0-1 spread, which is exactly what im doing



thanks for your help but i dont think thats right.. -.0043(edge)*10(bet)*70(hands per hour)=-$3/hr, and if i only play when the running count is positive (aka true count of 1/6 or greater), im not sure what my average count would be.. we all know the average count is 0 overall, but if i only played in positive running counts, what would my average count be.. you know what, this brings up a good point.. every1 looks at the true count of +1 and thinks "thats an even game" but nobody has asked, "what is the average positive count", meaning if you ignored all counts of 0 or less, what would the average count be? if that average is greater than a true count of 1, then that means playing at a positive running count would = an advantage (on average).. people have been telling me "at a +1 run count, the house still has the advantage" which is true, but that is only at that particular instance; the house edge of .0043 is the average of all the negative and positive swings, but if i cut out 90% of the negative swings (i still am in the negative with most low running counts), that would make my average probably positive, because i still have all the positive swings, but only 10% or so of the negative swings (due to only playing at + run counts).. this also means that the absolute worst house edge i would be playing at is -.35%, and the greatest advantage i would be playing at would be "infinite".. i got .35% by doing +1(run count)/6(decks)=1/6, so -.43%(house edge)*5/6=-.35 (i subtracted my small "advantage" i got from +1 running count at the beginning of the deck from the house edge)

All of those numbers are based on the numbers from Blackjack Attack, cutting off 1.5 decks for 6 and 8 decks, which includes TC frequency and advantage at that TC. This is usually better than using your average count, but in your case since you are flat betting this will be the same thing.

I'm telling you playing at only positive counts you would have a slight advantage. Your advantage for 6 decks would be 0.4272% and 8 decks would be 0.3817%. Both slightly over the advantage for playing at a constant +1, which is 0.35% for 6 decks and 0.33% for 8 decks. Therefore the average count will be slightly over +1.

-.44 8 deck casino edge * $10/hand * 53.97 hands = -2.37468
-.41 6 deck casino edge * $10/hand * 55.00 hands = -2.255

I don't know where you got 70 hands played. I thought you were only playing in exactly 0 or plus counts? 54-55 hands/hour, assuming 100 hands dealt, is an obvious number, as about 26-27 would be dealt at a +1 or higher and 27-28 would be dealt at a 0 count.

 

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

All of those numbers are based on the numbers from Blackjack Attack, cutting off 1.5 decks for 6 and 8 decks, which includes TC frequency and advantage at that TC. This is usually better than using your average count, but in your case since you are flat betting this will be the same thing.

I'm telling you playing at only positive counts you would have a slight advantage. Your advantage for 6 decks would be 0.4272% and 8 decks would be 0.3817%. Both slightly over the advantage for playing at a constant +1, which is 0.35% for 6 decks and 0.33% for 8 decks. Therefore the average count will be slightly over +1.

-.44 8 deck casino edge * $10/hand * 53.97 hands = -2.37468
-.41 6 deck casino edge * $10/hand * 55.00 hands = -2.255

I don't know where you got 70 hands played. I thought you were only playing in exactly 0 or plus counts? 54-55 hands/hour, assuming 100 hands dealt, is an obvious number, as about 26-27 would be dealt at a +1 or higher and 27-28 would be dealt at a 0 count.

100 hands per hour is with like 2 or 3 people at the table, and i play with 5+, so thats where i got 70.. there was a formula for hands/hr but i forgot what it was, it was like n-1/players or something i dunno, but a 7 person table is 60/hr i think, maybe i should have assumed like 75/hr for my example, which is prolly about 5 people.. anyways, i play at a RUNNING count of +1 or greater, so i play a lot more than 26% of the hands, prolly about 46%