The Mayor's Podium has me thinking that I might be a losing counter. Since I started playing as a CC I have had four sessions: win $300, lost $50, lost $700 and lost $1000. These were each weekend trips to indian casinos with around a .375% house edge. I played about 20 hours each time. I spread pretty wildly ($5-$200) so I know I will have wild swings, but after reading the Podium I think I might be playing a losing game. Until then I was confident I knew what I was doing. I have been practicing about an hour a day for seven months with Casino Veritite. Is it possible I am a losing player and wasting my time and money? Let me know what you think.
How do I know if I am a losing counter?
- Thread starter Garo
- Start date
How you know if you are a winner.
The first thing you need to figure out is if the game you are playing is a winning game. I suggest getting a sim software (like CVDATA). Judging from your betting levels, this should not be a big expense. It is worth every penny. Use CVData to simulate the game exactly as you play it. Using the indicies that you know and the bet spreads and penetration that are realistic. From this, you will know if the game is a winning game.
To know if you are a winning player, you have two options. Play for more than a lifetime and evaluate your results. Or do a little self evaluation. Do you find yourself getting tired while playing, and continue to play? Do you find yourself losing the count? Do you ever bet other than what your count recommends (or how you have simmed your game)? These factors can make you a losing player.
If you sim the exact method that you will use in a casino and the results are good, then play exactly how you simmed, Then you are a winning player. Anything otherwise is variance.
Good luck, Good cards
-Shaggy
The first thing you need to figure out is if the game you are playing is a winning game. I suggest getting a sim software (like CVDATA). Judging from your betting levels, this should not be a big expense. It is worth every penny. Use CVData to simulate the game exactly as you play it. Using the indicies that you know and the bet spreads and penetration that are realistic. From this, you will know if the game is a winning game.
To know if you are a winning player, you have two options. Play for more than a lifetime and evaluate your results. Or do a little self evaluation. Do you find yourself getting tired while playing, and continue to play? Do you find yourself losing the count? Do you ever bet other than what your count recommends (or how you have simmed your game)? These factors can make you a losing player.
If you sim the exact method that you will use in a casino and the results are good, then play exactly how you simmed, Then you are a winning player. Anything otherwise is variance.
Good luck, Good cards
-Shaggy
I disagree
While game selection is important, as is playing refreshed and avoiding obvious mistakes, the only way to be absolutely certain that you are a winner is by winning. While the results of four sessions are meaningless, your results after 400-500 hours are not.
Play for 400-500 hours on Casino Verite (I'm NOT kidding). If you win consistently more than you lose, it is VERY likely that you have a winning game. I'm sure somebody else can tell you precisely what the odds are of a non-AP being ahead after 500 hours, but I suspect it is a very unlikely occurrence.
While game selection is important, as is playing refreshed and avoiding obvious mistakes, the only way to be absolutely certain that you are a winner is by winning. While the results of four sessions are meaningless, your results after 400-500 hours are not.
Play for 400-500 hours on Casino Verite (I'm NOT kidding). If you win consistently more than you lose, it is VERY likely that you have a winning game. I'm sure somebody else can tell you precisely what the odds are of a non-AP being ahead after 500 hours, but I suspect it is a very unlikely occurrence.
Short term results are meaningless...
I wrote an article called "A Little Learning" that addresses the question you are asking in more detail. It will be coming out later this month at www.bjinsider.com (Blackjack Insider newsletter). That article may help clarify the matter.
--Mayor
I wrote an article called "A Little Learning" that addresses the question you are asking in more detail. It will be coming out later this month at www.bjinsider.com (Blackjack Insider newsletter). That article may help clarify the matter.
--Mayor
Even on CV?
Playing on the computer you should easily get 100 hands per hour, that's 40,000-50,000 hands, well over the N0 for that game.
But still- I can think of a better use of 400-500 hours! Playing a 1:40 spread like that, unless someone is forgetting Basic Strategy or not getting the bets out when called for it's almost impossible to be playing a losing game. Even 6:5 using High-Low is a winning game with a 1:40 spread.
Playing on the computer you should easily get 100 hands per hour, that's 40,000-50,000 hands, well over the N0 for that game.
But still- I can think of a better use of 400-500 hours! Playing a 1:40 spread like that, unless someone is forgetting Basic Strategy or not getting the bets out when called for it's almost impossible to be playing a losing game. Even 6:5 using High-Low is a winning game with a 1:40 spread.
Re: Even on CV
I'm a little bit more than a beginning counter and live in Las Vegas and frequent the casinos often. I agree that with you about being able to beat 21, but in reality, I don't see a casino letting you spread $5 - $200 for very long. Even if your playing a loosing game such as 6-5, it's the winning swings in 6-5, that they're going to put the two together. If you're just a little greedy it may cause problems playing in the future Furthurmore, you have to be very carefull making that kind of spread for very long before brinning attention to yourself. That's 400 - 500 trips to a casino playing an hour a time with that spread. Your in a casino with humans watching their bread and butter, not a computer.
Anthony
I'm a little bit more than a beginning counter and live in Las Vegas and frequent the casinos often. I agree that with you about being able to beat 21, but in reality, I don't see a casino letting you spread $5 - $200 for very long. Even if your playing a loosing game such as 6-5, it's the winning swings in 6-5, that they're going to put the two together. If you're just a little greedy it may cause problems playing in the future Furthurmore, you have to be very carefull making that kind of spread for very long before brinning attention to yourself. That's 400 - 500 trips to a casino playing an hour a time with that spread. Your in a casino with humans watching their bread and butter, not a computer.
Anthony
thanks for your help
I'll try to be a little less greedy and a little more patient and continue to practice. I'm leaving for Vegas tomorrow, no gambling, just vacation, last trip before my wife has our first baby. If you see a rather attractive young man with a beautiful pregnet woman on the Strip say hi.
I'll try to be a little less greedy and a little more patient and continue to practice. I'm leaving for Vegas tomorrow, no gambling, just vacation, last trip before my wife has our first baby. If you see a rather attractive young man with a beautiful pregnet woman on the Strip say hi.
Don't Worry About it!
Playing on 4 trips, hardly gives a true picture of your abilities.
I haven't had the best of years so far, I lost half my bank in the last three months. Suppose I started 3 months ago, I would be thinking that I am a losing player. Maybe even quit. That happens to many that start out with negative flux. They don't think they can do it and give up just when it may have turned around for them.
What I didn't tell you is that I started last year and actually won the bank that I have since lost half. Basically, I am still playing from winnings even though I show no progress in the last few months.
Even this period (time beginning from last year) is not enough to show your play, though it does give a pretty fair idea. Short term is that, and you can win and lose a bunch in the short term.
Keep positive, keep putting the money out when you are supposed to, make SURE you are playing a winning game and give it time. At the end of this year, come back and give us a report of your play and your bank. I would venture to say you will be ahead.
Good cards,
PM
Playing on 4 trips, hardly gives a true picture of your abilities.
I haven't had the best of years so far, I lost half my bank in the last three months. Suppose I started 3 months ago, I would be thinking that I am a losing player. Maybe even quit. That happens to many that start out with negative flux. They don't think they can do it and give up just when it may have turned around for them.
What I didn't tell you is that I started last year and actually won the bank that I have since lost half. Basically, I am still playing from winnings even though I show no progress in the last few months.
Even this period (time beginning from last year) is not enough to show your play, though it does give a pretty fair idea. Short term is that, and you can win and lose a bunch in the short term.
Keep positive, keep putting the money out when you are supposed to, make SURE you are playing a winning game and give it time. At the end of this year, come back and give us a report of your play and your bank. I would venture to say you will be ahead.
Good cards,
PM
Not necessarily
"Play for 400-500 hours on Casino Verite (I'm NOT kidding). If you win consistently more than you lose, it is VERY likely that you have a winning game. I'm sure somebody else can tell you precisely what the odds are of a non-AP being ahead after 500 hours, but I suspect it is a very unlikely occurrence."
Although 400-500 hours IS a good indication of your play, but playing 400 hours on a computer verses a real casino is totally different. Not only do you have to be a winner at strategy and bet placements, you also need to master the ability to play...that is, not get booted! There is a lot more to this game than what we get from a computer.
Saying that, you come out ahead after 400-500 hours of CASINO play, I think you can pretty much say you are a winning player.
PM
"Play for 400-500 hours on Casino Verite (I'm NOT kidding). If you win consistently more than you lose, it is VERY likely that you have a winning game. I'm sure somebody else can tell you precisely what the odds are of a non-AP being ahead after 500 hours, but I suspect it is a very unlikely occurrence."
Although 400-500 hours IS a good indication of your play, but playing 400 hours on a computer verses a real casino is totally different. Not only do you have to be a winner at strategy and bet placements, you also need to master the ability to play...that is, not get booted! There is a lot more to this game than what we get from a computer.
Saying that, you come out ahead after 400-500 hours of CASINO play, I think you can pretty much say you are a winning player.
PM
Not necessarily, but *LINK* *PIC*
Although 400-500 hours IS a good indication of your play, but playing 400 hours on a computer verses a real casino is totally different.
I wouldn't say totally. CVBJ does support ridiculously complex cover betting as well as cover plays. This is not the totality of putting on a good act, but is a good part of longevity. CVData supports cover betting, cover play, many types of dealer errors, player errors and other features to enhance realism.
But I will agree with you if you're using crappy software
Although 400-500 hours IS a good indication of your play, but playing 400 hours on a computer verses a real casino is totally different.
I wouldn't say totally. CVBJ does support ridiculously complex cover betting as well as cover plays. This is not the totality of putting on a good act, but is a good part of longevity. CVData supports cover betting, cover play, many types of dealer errors, player errors and other features to enhance realism.
But I will agree with you if you're using crappy software
Your Software is ANYTHING but Crappy
"I wouldn't say totally. CVBJ does support ridiculously complex cover betting as well as cover plays. This is not the totality of putting on a good act, but is a good part of longevity. CVData supports cover betting, cover play, many types of dealer errors, player errors and other features to enhance realism.
But I will agree with you if you're using crappy software"
I don't mean to say that software is meaningless. It is an important tool. I just don't believe you play 400 hours on computer and win and equate the same in a casino, you may be misleading yourself.
As good as your software is...and it's the BEST, I still haven't felt the glare of the pit when I put out my max bet. Now, if you can program THIS into your software, you REALLY have something. (Don't forget other pit activities, as well) If anyone can do it, it's you.
BTW, I use different software...INCLUDING yours. (Wouldn't be without it)
PM
"I wouldn't say totally. CVBJ does support ridiculously complex cover betting as well as cover plays. This is not the totality of putting on a good act, but is a good part of longevity. CVData supports cover betting, cover play, many types of dealer errors, player errors and other features to enhance realism.
But I will agree with you if you're using crappy software
"I don't mean to say that software is meaningless. It is an important tool. I just don't believe you play 400 hours on computer and win and equate the same in a casino, you may be misleading yourself.
As good as your software is...and it's the BEST, I still haven't felt the glare of the pit when I put out my max bet. Now, if you can program THIS into your software, you REALLY have something. (Don't forget other pit activities, as well) If anyone can do it, it's you.
BTW, I use different software...INCLUDING yours. (Wouldn't be without it)
PM
I had suggested to norm
A while back that he ought to include some sort of "heat". There is an option to "shuffle up" on a big bet jump, but that's all. It would be nice to have some sort of "heat" if your betting tracks the count too closely, or if you make too many "spectacular" plays (splitting 10's, etc, with big bets out) or if you take insurance only when the count says to, etc...
The cover-betting stuff is pretty nice, and I have worked up a few variations depending on what I feel is appropriate based on "feel" in the pit. But it would be nice if it would nag from time to time "you look like a friggin' counter with that insurance play" or something similar.
A while back that he ought to include some sort of "heat". There is an option to "shuffle up" on a big bet jump, but that's all. It would be nice to have some sort of "heat" if your betting tracks the count too closely, or if you make too many "spectacular" plays (splitting 10's, etc, with big bets out) or if you take insurance only when the count says to, etc...
The cover-betting stuff is pretty nice, and I have worked up a few variations depending on what I feel is appropriate based on "feel" in the pit. But it would be nice if it would nag from time to time "you look like a friggin' counter with that insurance play" or something similar.
As long as we're offering suggestions to Norm...
How about:
An option for Perfect Play as a playing strategy, so we can calculate the PE of our own playing strategies empirically. There could also be a screen to calculate the betting correlations and average effects of removal of the each card to help compensate for nonlinear effects of removal and also oddball bonuses given in certain games (5-card charlies, 7-7-7, and so forth.) Yeah I know, easier said that done. Just tossing ideas around.
Oh and here's an easier one- how about a function in CVShuffle that measures the average relationship between the peak and/or RMS values of running count from mother to daughter shoe? Add this, and you can consider one upgrade sold!
How about:
An option for Perfect Play as a playing strategy, so we can calculate the PE of our own playing strategies empirically. There could also be a screen to calculate the betting correlations and average effects of removal of the each card to help compensate for nonlinear effects of removal and also oddball bonuses given in certain games (5-card charlies, 7-7-7, and so forth.) Yeah I know, easier said that done. Just tossing ideas around.
Oh and here's an easier one- how about a function in CVShuffle that measures the average relationship between the peak and/or RMS values of running count from mother to daughter shoe? Add this, and you can consider one upgrade sold!
Updates *LINK* *PIC*
An option for Perfect Play as a playing strategy, so we can calculate the PE of our own playing strategies empirically. There could also be a screen to calculate the betting correlations and average effects of removal of the each card to help compensate for nonlinear effects of removal and also oddball bonuses given in certain games (5-card charlies, 7-7-7, and so forth.) Yeah I know, easier said that done. Just tossing ideas around.
I tend to consider PE and EORs as only having use in determining good tag values to try out. Once you have created a strategy; they no longer have purpose.
Oh and here's an easier one- how about a function in CVShuffle that measures the average relationship between the peak and/or RMS values of running count from mother to daughter shoe?
That would be more accurate in CVData. It's an interesting thought. Substantial additional attention to shuffles is planned for CVData.
An option for Perfect Play as a playing strategy, so we can calculate the PE of our own playing strategies empirically. There could also be a screen to calculate the betting correlations and average effects of removal of the each card to help compensate for nonlinear effects of removal and also oddball bonuses given in certain games (5-card charlies, 7-7-7, and so forth.) Yeah I know, easier said that done. Just tossing ideas around.
I tend to consider PE and EORs as only having use in determining good tag values to try out. Once you have created a strategy; they no longer have purpose.
Oh and here's an easier one- how about a function in CVShuffle that measures the average relationship between the peak and/or RMS values of running count from mother to daughter shoe?
That would be more accurate in CVData. It's an interesting thought. Substantial additional attention to shuffles is planned for CVData.
another
The ability to calculate the gain/loss for a specific hand with various TC values and playing decisions.
For example, a while back (good while) I was playing and felt that I was getting more than the usual attention as things were generally going my way. On a 12 vs 2, with the PC watching, I hit and busted. Next time he watched, on the same hand I stood and lost. The next time he watched (TC was < 0) I said "OK, I hit and busted, stood and lost, so I'm going to try something else." I tossed out another min bet to double the 12 and won. He shook his head, and didn't come back. It would be nice to find out which particular
whacko plays are not EV killers. This obviously wasn't one, because it was a min bet to start with, and from some custom SIM software I wrote years ago, I found that this double is a pretty close call. But it would be nice to be able to discover this kind of play for any hand and TC...
The ability to calculate the gain/loss for a specific hand with various TC values and playing decisions.
For example, a while back (good while) I was playing and felt that I was getting more than the usual attention as things were generally going my way. On a 12 vs 2, with the PC watching, I hit and busted. Next time he watched, on the same hand I stood and lost. The next time he watched (TC was < 0) I said "OK, I hit and busted, stood and lost, so I'm going to try something else." I tossed out another min bet to double the 12 and won. He shook his head, and didn't come back. It would be nice to find out which particular
whacko plays are not EV killers. This obviously wasn't one, because it was a min bet to start with, and from some custom SIM software I wrote years ago, I found that this double is a pretty close call. But it would be nice to be able to discover this kind of play for any hand and TC...