How do you decide when a table is "hot"?

[djlex1928]

Hiya, been browsing these forums a little while now. I'm a newbie (started learning to count on Thursday) and I'm picking it up very fast. Just wanted to ask a quick question to everyone here..

As quoted from the movie "21".. They signaled the rest of the players when the table was "hot". What sort of count do you wait for until you consider the table hot and up the stakes?

 

[EasyRhino]

At a true count of +1 you often have a very tiny advantage.

So +2 and up is when you start raising bets. Max bets may be reached around TC +5 or so.

 

[djlex1928]

Thanks for the reply. Also what sort of betting style do people play?

Double you bet as the count increases? Do you ever double your bets on a losing hand to try and win back your losses?

Just interested to know what works for different people.

 

[jack.jackson]

Thanks for the reply. Also what sort of betting style do people play?

Double you bet as the count increases? Do you ever double your bets on a losing hand to try and win back your losses?

Just interested to know what works for different people.

I have many. My favorite has four bets only:

1:8

a)x1
b)x2
c)2x2
d)4x4

1:12

a)x1
b)x3
c)3x3
d)6x6

On this shceme I may be inclined to parlay on wins only, depending on my BR.

Alternative1:12

a)x1
b)x6
c)6x6

On this shceme I would parlay on wins only

Conservative 1:16

a)x1
b)x2
c)2x2
d)4x4
e)8x8

And perhaps depending on the game, for this spead I would(Given the TC calls for it)

a)Double bet on wins only
b)Double bet win or lose
c)Bet proportionally for each given TC

Naturally C might give you the highest Return On Investment, while having the highest RoR, while A would give you the lowest ROI, but with the least risk.

Probably best to sim your game and experiment with the spread and/or the bet strategy.

Also see>http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=11538

 

[callipygian]

What sort of count do you wait for until you consider the table hot and up the stakes?

The simple-to-post, but hard-to-calculate, answer is that it depends on your bankroll and risk level.

The higher the count before you increase your bets (or signal someone in), the lower your EV and the lower your variance. The larger the bet spread (what you raise to or what the big player is coming in with), the higher your EV and the higher your variance. Your worst variance will come from pushing all-in with your entire bankroll at a TC of +1. Your worst EV will come from waiting for a TC of +10 to double your bet and it never arrives. You want to be somewhere in between those two extremes.

 

[djlex1928]

The simple-to-post, but hard-to-calculate, answer is that it depends on your bankroll and risk level.

The higher the count before you increase your bets (or signal someone in), the lower your EV and the lower your variance. The larger the bet spread (what you raise to or what the big player is coming in with), the higher your EV and the higher your variance. Your worst variance will come from pushing all-in with your entire bankroll at a TC of +1. Your worst EV will come from waiting for a TC of +10 to double your bet and it never arrives. You want to be somewhere in between those two extremes.

Perfect answer buddy.. Thanks

I've been playing around with my bets and I think what works best for my bankroll is around TC +4 / TC +5.

 

[EasyRhino]

I believe blackjack attack runs a bunch of examples of differeing wong-in and wong-out points.

A very tight scheme would have you wong it at, say +4, and wong out at around +1, only playing the highest counts, perhaps flat betting a large amount (or only spreading a little).

A "play more" scenario would have a wong in at +2 and a wong-out at 0 or -1. You'd probably do some more spreading on the bets.

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks for the reply. Also what sort of betting style do people play?

my style is conservative but i've been known to engage in intermittent fits of wildly irrational wishful steaming (which is definately not recommended, sometimes called over betting) and also purposely gambling on a relatively intuitive whim.
believe it or not that said, being a recreational player it's my purpose to remain in the game long term with out losing my bankroll and to hopefully realize some 'modest' increase.
in an ideal scenerio i'd like to engineer it so as to risk the bulk of my bankroll over the long haul in the least risky manner possible (while making very modest gains) and relegating a very small proportion of my bankroll to more risky bets that have a good likelyhood of yeilding a high return. that said i haven't been able to figure out how to do that yet.

Double you bet as the count increases?

well not exactly. in orthodox counting more the idea would be to bet proportionaly to the advantage with respect to your bankroll wherein your staying in line with your desired risk of ruin. structuring your bets so as to hopefully be optimal with the aforementioned consideration.
the thing is that as the count increases it's believed that your advantage increases by certain degrees. essentially the nature of the advantage is your likelyhood to be dealt a blackjack, have more successful double downs and have better odds on your insurance bets. in other words, thats where you make your money, ie. blackjacks, double downs and good insurance bets. the higher the true count gets the more likely it is that those three things will pan out for you. so to the degree to which the likelyhood of those things happening is the degree to which you want to increase your bet size while keeping in consideration your desired risk of ruin.
simulations can help you with this, to where you can develope a game plan.
my advice on that would be to still be cautiously careful as you could always lose your entire bankroll.

Do you ever double your bets on a losing hand to try and win back your losses?

lol, that could be getting into that wildly irrational wishful steaming stuff. in terms commonly bandied about these forums that might be considered "chasing your loss's". ( a not recommended practice). that said doing stuff like that might be considered a high degree of gambling to where it's your money you can do what you want with it sort of thing. lol.

Just interested to know what works for different people.

for me it's definately been a wild ride. :cat: