I Keep Getting Different Answers

aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
So what is the math to determine the odds of a streak of X or more occurring within Y number of hands (pushes don't break the streak)? Can I refer back to a previous post?
 
G

Grasshopper

Member
Muppet, Nynefingers and Sonny.

Thanks for all the input on this. Read, and reread , the posts and watched the video.

I think I get the concept on the independence thing but a bit confusing. I will continue chewing on it.

I got the point on the calculation. Probability somewhere in the 1:1600 - 1:2500 bracket, probably toward the higher side.

That is enough of an answer to resolve my issues, at least as far as this question

Thanks for the education. Much appreciated.
 
N

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
aslan said:
Thanks! Exactly what I was looking for.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure it is, based on the wording of your question. I think the thread Sonny linked only explains one piece of what your question asks. You may want to reread my earlier posts in this thread. I think you are asking the same thing as the OP, just in a more general sense. If you are in fact asking the same thing as the OP, then the fact is that I don't know how to properly calculate the answer, I just know why the "usual" answer doesn't seem to be correct.
 
N

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
Grasshopper said:
Muppet, Nynefingers and Sonny.

Thanks for all the input on this. Read, and reread , the posts and watched the video.

I think I get the concept on the independence thing but a bit confusing. I will continue chewing on it.

I got the point on the calculation. Probability somewhere in the 1:1600 - 1:2500 bracket, probably toward the higher side.

That is enough of an answer to resolve my issues, at least as far as this question

Thanks for the education. Much appreciated.
Click to expand...


Why are you interested in this particular sequence of loss streaks? If you are interested because you came close to it at some point, then can I suggest that perhaps there is a bias in your results? If that is the case, you may have biased your results by choosing a sequence that you already had *not* seen after some number of hands. Many times when someone reports some unusually frequent or infrequent occurrence, it is something that is one of thousands of possible unusual things that might happen, each with low probability. That *one* of those unusual events happened isn't really that surprising. The surprising thing would be if they were looking for that specific rare occurrence beforehand and it actually happened.
 
muppet

muppet

Well-Known Member
Nynefingers said:
I believe that is why the referenced website shows a lower probability of a particular losing streak within a given hand sample size. I don't know the math to calculate the correct odds given the dependence problem, so I would approach it with a simple simulation.
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which problem are you unsure of how to calculate the answer?

Nynefingers said:
Close. What are the chances of at least one 10 hand losing streak within a sample of 2000 hands? It isn't 1991x=1.62=162%. The calculation you did gives us the expected number of 10 hand losing streaks in 30 hands. The chance of having a 10 hand losing streak in 30 hands would be
1-(1-x)^21 = 0.0170
Click to expand...
doesn't this equation correctly solve the "dependence problem"? or is there a different scenario that you are talking about in the first quote above
 
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