If there were cheating

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
Thinking about the first 100 hour post and the hard times John has faced I would speculate that if there were cheating, though I don't say there is, it would occur against the AP playing at higher stakes. That would give the house the best results with the fewest risks in my opinion. I would like to ask the group members at what level of negative variance would you start to suspect foul play? If you played a lot, tracked you results really sharp, and found one establishment produced markedly consistent negative variances you could have suspicions of foul play and not shop there but how bad does it have to get before you stay out of a joint.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#3
Winneratlosing said:
The simplest explaination is normally the correct one, John is playing over his head and everyone knows it
Why do you care anyway? As the last post in the thread titled "First Hundred Hours," you wrote:

"Im not bitter im not the one losing hand over fist"
 
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#4
BoSox said:
Why do you care anyway? As the last post in the thread titled "First Hundred Hours," you wrote:

"Im not bitter im not the one losing hand over fist"
as i re-call you and Kewl called me and asshole and i responded back by calling you and Kewl a dick-head and some how don got involved and the webman decided to delete the posts

i don't care and im not bitter i couldn't say that honestly if i was the one who blew through 5-8 grand or wherever is he at currently

finding a cheating casino would be as hard as finding a jackpot lotto ticket in today's era
 
#6
and are you at -3SD Johnny boy?
all that standard deviation is thrown out the window when you blow through 1/2 your bank =) and all your left with is the past is the past and we lost plain n simple
 
#7
Things are actually going much better on the second BR so far. I'm trending close to EV. Things are still pretty damn tight, with transportation expenses at $20 each time I go to the casino. Sure, that's an hour of EV, but when looked at on a monthly basis it really adds up, the rent hanging over my head doesn' help either. I generated 5k worth of EV this month, trended closely to it, and I still feel like I'm underwater.
Things are getting better with the more hard work I put in but if I'm going to make it I can't go on another bad run. I need to keep trending close to EV.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#8
JohnCrover said:
Things are actually going much better on the second BR so far. I'm trending close to EV. Things are still pretty damn tight, with transportation expenses at $20 each time I go to the casino. Sure, that's an hour of EV, but when looked at on a monthly basis it really adds up, the rent hanging over my head doesn' help either. I generated 5k worth of EV this month, trended closely to it, and I still feel like I'm underwater.
Things are getting better with the more hard work I put in but if I'm going to make it I can't go on another bad run. I need to keep trending close to EV.
John, with your current playing bank size you cannot be successful while drawing rent money at the same time. I am sorry to say it is only a matter of time before it catches up with you. KJ was very lucky years ago but was prepared to get a job and save money for a second chance if he busted out in his early days.
 
#9
Isn't John and Zenking playing at same stakes? Maybe Zk is making a little morevbut thats even out by more hours clocked in, i think once john triple his roll there will be no stopping him!
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#10
Winneratlosing said:
i think once john triple his roll there will be no stopping him!
Only some optimistic winner at losing lives with a dream like that, under the scenario stated. Even if he tripled his 10k roll it still would be a long shot.
 
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#11
BoSox said:
Only some optimistic winner at losing lives with a dream like that, under the scenario stated.
So its ok for Kewlj to slaughter the casinos under worser conditions and no cvcx but our John boy cant do it? Your a dick you know that?
 
#12
BoSox said:
Only some optimistic winner at losing lives with a dream like that, under the scenario stated. Even if he tripled his 10k roll it still would be a long shot.
Explain to all the Xpert gamblers card counters about long shots i think Kewl paying rent and making ev in his early days was beyond a long shot
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#14
Winneratlosing said:
So its ok for Kewlj to slaughter the casinos under worser conditions and no cvcx
Really? KJ "slaughtered" the casinos in AC with BR less than 10k when I started? Slaughtered? :rolleyes: I'd call that a bit of revisionist history.

Anyway, we are not talking about KJ, nor ancient 2004 history. Stop obsessing. This is about JohnCrover and how we can get him to have the best shot at HIS situation in 2019!
 
#17
Did you watch inside the edge yet John ? Its on putlocker, he showed his wins and lossee from start to finish and he won right off the bat i think around 300k before he lost 25% of it. Its funny how the pros always kick off with the positive variance the east coast bit into his winnings i thought that stood out
 
#18
Mhmm, well, my EV is about $30 / hr, it's better than what I will make at any other job I'm qualified for, and working a part-time job to supplement my income wouldn't work well because I play too much blackjack to work a part-time job, and even if I had time to do so my time is better spent generating $30 / hr (which is a conservative number) than making $10.
Yeah, life's not fair, and I need to trend towards EV otherwise I'm screwed, but it's not like I have a better shot doing anything else.
If I lose, then that's why there's welfare.
 
#20
BoSox said:
John, players who are starting out with small playing banks need to reinvest 100% of winnings into their playing bank to give themselves a fair chance of success. Early on this is so important.
Yep, you cannot spend your winnings AT ALL until you, at least, amass a $20,000 bank roll.

But, really, you shouldn't use ANY bank roll money until you get to $60,000 bank roll, then take out $10,000 and start again at a $50,000 bank roll (if you need a small bit of money to use while you continue to grow your future bank roll).

Then, if you desire, you can always play with a $50,000 bank roll, and for every time you make $10,000...you can pull out half of that profit ($5,000)!!!! As your $50k bank roll grows to $75,000, then you can take $15,000 of that....and play like you only have a $50k bank roll, but always keep that $10k as insurance. Rinse & repeat for the rest of your life. :)

Don't have to do that...but make your own plan that has plenty of insurance!

Of course...if you never take any out, and just raise your betting while keeping the same RoR....you will get to $500,000 MUCH FASTER!
 
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