Is this game beatable ?

[Dipsy]

Hi,

I'm in Sydney Australia. i found a blackjack machine in the Returned Services League Clubs. Here are the rules:
4decks
Bj pays 3 to 2
S17
split once only
no doubling after split
double on any first 2 cards
late surrender
50% penetration (the rule says a shuffle will be done after 104 cards are dealt so it means not a new shoe after every game)
min bet $1 (didn't check the max bet, but i guess its more like 50- 100?)

this is probably the best game i can find in sydney because CMS are used in the major casino (star city)
what kind of spread do i need to beat the machine? or am I wasting time on this one? but because it's machine operated so hands/hour should be higher, n you will not get any heat from the club.

any thoughts?

 

[shadroch]

You don't mention what BJ pays. Most BJ machines pay even money for BJ.
If it doesn't pay3-2, stay away.

 

[Dipsy]

Oh yep BJ pays 3:2

 

[shadroch]

Is the shuffle point visible, so you know when there is a fresh deck?

 

[Dipsy]

Yes but one would need to look at the dealer's screen to see when the deck is shuffled rather than only concerntrating at his own playing screen

 

[Machinist]

Manufacturer

Hmmmm do you remember the manufactures name? If you know the shuffle point then you would be in business... Years ago there were very beatable BJ machines....Williams put out a real nice one Game King also..... and i cant remember the old huge machines that sat six people, like the new Royalmatch machines... But those definitely were beatable also..straight up....
If a players card is available with cash back and comps...sounds to me you might be in business...To bad your a half million miles away,,, i might have come taken a walk about to take a look see!!!!:laugh::laugh:

Machinist

 

[johndoe]

Barely beatable, with 50% pen. Seems like a waste of time.

I analyzed a similar machine with 6D, 50% pen, and even spreading 1-50 (or 1-100) it wasn't really worth the time. Extraordinary variance, too. Was fun to hit without heat though. They just scratched their heads when they'd see me jump from $1 to $100+.

 

[Dipsy]

Barely beatable, with 50% pen. Seems like a waste of time.

I analyzed a similar machine with 6D, 50% pen, and even spreading 1-50 (or 1-100) it wasn't really worth the time. Extraordinary variance, too. Was fun to hit without heat though. They just scratched their heads when they'd see me jump from $1 to $100+.

so the 4D would not have made a difference? well thanks for the info anyway!

 

[Dipsy]

Hmmmm do you remember the manufactures name? If you know the shuffle point then you would be in business... Years ago there were very beatable BJ machines....Williams put out a real nice one Game King also..... and i cant remember the old huge machines that sat six people, like the new Royalmatch machines... But those definitely were beatable also..straight up....
If a players card is available with cash back and comps...sounds to me you might be in business...To bad your a half million miles away,,, i might have come taken a walk about to take a look see!!!!:laugh::laugh:

Machinist

didn't take notice on the brand! but i'll check later and come back to you !

 

[kewljason]

Barely beatable, with 50% pen. Seems like a waste of time.

I analyzed a similar machine with 6D, 50% pen, and even spreading 1-50 (or 1-100) it wasn't really worth the time. Extraordinary variance, too. Was fun to hit without heat though. They just scratched their heads when they'd see me jump from $1 to $100+.

Casino Verite says the house edge is .44%, which isn't horrible. What makes it bad is of course the 50% pen, but if you can spread 1-50 or 1-100 with no heat, I would think you should be able to do ok. High variance yes, but a resonable long term return for a video game, no? Of course what people find a reasonable return is an individual thing.

 

[johndoe]

Casino Verite says the house edge is .44%, which isn't horrible. What makes it bad is of course the 50% pen, but if you can spread 1-50 or 1-100 with no heat, I would think you should be able to do ok. High variance yes, but a resonable long term return for a video game, no? Of course what people find a reasonable return is an individual thing.

Right, the rules aren't what kill it; it's the pen. I don't remember the numbers, but the SCORE was atrocious, even with a ridiculous spread, mostly due to the unusually high variance if I remember correctly.

Probably little heat, though; there's a niche for someone, I suppose, who thinks it's worth it for them.

 

[Dipsy]

Right, the rules aren't what kill it; it's the pen. I don't remember the numbers, but the SCORE was atrocious, even with a ridiculous spread, mostly due to the unusually high variance if I remember correctly.

Probably little heat, though; there's a niche for someone, I suppose, who thinks it's worth it for them.

with $1 min bet, a spread of 1-50 or a 1-100 would mean the top bet are just going to be $50 or $100 anyway? that has lower variance than what you would have in the casino with $5 or $10 min bet because you would be betting $5- 250, $10-500 , $5-$500, $10-$1000 i guess?

but i dont know if it would be equally profitable?

 

[johndoe]

with $1 min bet, a spread of 1-50 or a 1-100 would mean the top bet are just going to be $50 or $100 anyway? that has lower variance than what you would have in the casino with $5 or $10 min bet because you would be betting $5- 250, $10-500 , $5-$500, $10-$1000 i guess?

but i dont know if it would be equally profitable?

It's drastically less profitable because you have only rare advantageous situations and opportunities to bet big. Run the #s and see.

 

[Dipsy]

Hmmmm do you remember the manufactures name? If you know the shuffle point then you would be in business... Years ago there were very beatable BJ machines....Williams put out a real nice one Game King also..... and i cant remember the old huge machines that sat six people, like the new Royalmatch machines... But those definitely were beatable also..straight up....
If a players card is available with cash back and comps...sounds to me you might be in business...To bad your a half million miles away,,, i might have come taken a walk about to take a look see!!!!:laugh::laugh:

Machinist

just played at the machine, its brand name is VEGAS STAR. $1 min $50 max confirmed. also hit split aces.

Played for 3 hours or so,was able to do 190 hands per hour however only 3 to 4 shoes reached a TC of +2. was playing 1-10 spread, 20 units ahead at the end.

 

[Machinist]

googled it

Well live and learn.. Shufflemaster makes it...in a multiplayer game and also stand alone models. I still cant remember who made the one i played years a go.... Oh well
From the post i have read about bj in your part of the world, this might be as good as it gets......:laugh::laugh:
I would make sure of all the rules. 6 card charlie? how about split aces paying 3:2 for a BJ....
Also do you get comps or cash back on a players card... That would be worth alot!!
If that machine was in vegas ... i guarantee you would not be able to get a seat at it... !!!!!
How about promotions, car giveaways,trinkets , etc. Earn tickets and the like for drawings?? All of this type stuff adds to your EV....

Machinist

 

[jack.jackson]

just played at the machine, its brand name is VEGAS STAR. $1 min $50 max confirmed. also hit split aces.

Played for 3 hours or so,was able to do 190 hands per hour however only 3 to 4 shoes reached a TC of +2. was playing 1-10 spread, 20 units ahead at the end.

With Basic hi-lo and @ 100 hands per hour, im getting a WR of $7 per hour.
+0<$1
+1:$10
+2:20
+3:30
+4:40
+5>50

Now, if you use late Sr indices(or more indices) play 200 hands per hour and/or wong out, you could probably win up to, x2 or x3 your WR.

Also make sure you dont lose both your bets when you double down, when the dealer has a BJ

 

[Dipsy]

Well live and learn.. Shufflemaster makes it...in a multiplayer game and also stand alone models. I still cant remember who made the one i played years a go.... Oh well
From the post i have read about bj in your part of the world, this might be as good as it gets......:laugh::laugh:
I would make sure of all the rules. 6 card charlie? how about split aces paying 3:2 for a BJ....
Also do you get comps or cash back on a players card... That would be worth alot!!
If that machine was in vegas ... i guarantee you would not be able to get a seat at it... !!!!!
How about promotions, car giveaways,trinkets , etc. Earn tickets and the like for drawings?? All of this type stuff adds to your EV....

Machinist

no 6 card charlie, no split aces BJ are counted as 21.
yes i do get comps with a member card by accumulating points while you play, don't know how the points are calculated. They can be used to purchase beer or food in the club but are not convertible to cash. It's just a small club, no big promotions like you mentioned. Most patrons are retired people. I've played at the machine for 3 hours and i was the only player at the machine 99% of the time (its a multiplayer machine).

 

[Dipsy]

With Basic hi-lo and @ 100 hands per hour, im getting a WR of $7 per hour.
+0<$1
+1:$10
+2:20
+3:30
+4:40
+5>50

Now, if you use late Sr indices(or more indices) play 200 hands per hour and/or wong out, you could probably win up to, x2 or x3 your WR.

Also make sure you dont lose both your bets when you double down, when the dealer has a BJ

it's a dealer peeks for blackjack rule so i dont lose both bets. from what you say does it mean i can make a $14-21 hourly rate from the machine?? and why bet $10 at TC +1? shouldnt it be just the min bet?

 

[jack.jackson]

it's a dealer peeks for blackjack rule so i dont lose both bets. from what you say does it mean i can make a $14-21 hourly rate from the machine?? and why bet $10 at TC +1? shouldnt it be just the min bet?

according to your listed rules:

4D/50%
splitx2
s17
Hit split aces
Late Sr
NDAS
-.36

and with basic hi-lo and according to cvdata you have a EV @+1 of .412 which isnt bad

 

[jack.jackson]

$10 and $20(your bets) in the left column represent both hands and units won

Your WR @ 190 hands per hour(play-all)is 13.75

and you RoR is

1K=42.25%
3K=7.54%
5K=1.25%