Keeping from getting discouraged...

[OneAngryDwarf]

(Forgive me if this post sounds whiny, but I need somewhere to collect my thoughts. I'm not in a great mood.)

Well, I guess it was bound to happen. Having just learned to count (Red7), and after 4 consecutive winning sessions (nothing huge, between $100-$200 each time) I decided to give the tables one more try today...and promptly blew my entire $800 bankroll in 5 hours. I wasn't betting beyond my means, either; I spread only between $10 and $50, and would frequently either leave the table or sit out a few hands if the count went too low.

An especially bothersome thing was that the count just didn't seem to work at all. When I did play through a low count and bet the minimum, I seemed to win MORE often. When the count went sky-high I raised my bet...only to get an 18, see the dealer turn over a total of 6, and then pull a few more 4s and 5s out. (Meanwhile, all the blackjacks go to the other players.) I take insurance against an ace with a count of +10...lose it while the hole card turns out to be...another ace, while the dealer chastises me for insuring a 13 (I can at least see how an Ace side count comes in handy.)

Don't get me wrong, I'm not questioning the legitimacy of counting, and I know about fluctuation in the short run. I've got about $10,000 in savings, of which I've decided I'm comfortable "investing" about $7000--so today's loss wasn't a big deal in the big picture. But it's still discouraging to think that I will have many more sessions like this...possibly even all of them...no matter how much better I get at this.

Another thing that really started getting to me was the casino atmosphere itself. I don't mean the "heat," in fact as far as I could tell there was none at all. But then there's the awful noise from the slots, the constant barrage of cigarette smoke (I had to put up with BOTH players on either side of me lighting up and blowing right in my face for a while), the inane chatter from the morons at the table ("Nothing's hitting today, I'm down $200"...as they stand on a soft 16 against a 9 or hit a hard 17)...I've been able to take it in stride before, and even managed a bit of cover, joking around with the dealers a bit while maintaining my concentration. I can also accept that this particular casino caters to a clientele that is mostly, shall we say, working-class. But today, for whatever reason, it just got to me in a bad way...I found myself on the verge of hyperventilating, and losing the count because of it, more than a few times.

I don't plan on having a career as a pro, at least not right now. I thought counting would be an interesting hobby to take up due to having a lot of time on my hands, and the thrill and excitement of scoring a huge win with the right play on a high count was a lot of fun--in my earlier sessions, anyway. But today there was absolutely NOTHING enjoyable about the experience whatsoever...I felt more like a degenerate compulsive gambler, chasing my losses and staying in spite of the unpleasant atmosphere because "a good count could come along on the next shuffle!" And that is definitely NOT a road I want to go down.

Any help on how to cope would be greatly appreciated...I can accept honest criticism too...if you think it sounds like I'm just not cut out for this, I'm open to it. I'm just looking for reassurance that the roller-coaster ride is really worth it all.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

its pretty simple, the roller coaster is just a lot bigger than you expected it to be, though not common, you will, on a regular basis lose 20-40+ max bets in single playing session as long as you continue to play.

as im sure you know, they can also happen at anytime including your first trip.

~n addition to all that, and i tell this to everybody, as you play more and more blackjack you will become accustomed to enduring large losses both temporary, or even ones that dont allow you to play anymore. It starts to carry over to your life outside thebj tables and as a result it becomes very difficult for negetove events like getting a speeding ticket, you car breaking down or whatever to ruin your day making you a happier person overall for the rest of your life.

 

[shadroch]

Why in the world would you be willing to risk 70% of your savings on anything other than a home?

 

[kewljason]

Well, sounds as if you had your first lousy day! Sorry to hear that. But, if you choose to continue this "hobby" you will have many many more, along with the good days. It truely is a rollercoaster. It is just a fact, that unforetunately there are days, sometimes weeks that nothing goes right. It gets easier as time goes on. Each time you bounce back from these bad days, (whether it is next time you play, next week, next month or 3 months down the road) the rollercoaster becomes less taxing. People telling you this doesn't really help though. It's really something you have to learn for yourself. Some people are never able to handle the mental side of this and are just not cut out for counting even as a "hobby". This is something you will have to determine for yourself.

The one thing about your post that does concern me, is how unenjoyable you discribe today's experience. Oviously, days that you lose are less enjoyable than winning days, and you will notice the things that bothered you a bit more, but from the way you discribed your experience today with "the barrage smoking", "aweful noise from the slots" and "the inane chatter from the morons at the table" including the dealers, it just sounds like you were in misery. Thats not what a hobby is suppossed to be about. A hobby is suppossed to be something enjoyable that you do in your spare time, Not something that makes you hyperventilate.

Anyway, as I said, only you can make that determination and I wish you luck either way.

Also would like to comment on the statement by FerrotnParrot about "it carrying over to your life outside the BJ tables". It's real important that you not allow this to happen. I've always looked at it like one of those "bad" job dealing with the public. Maybe the kind you had in high school or that I used to have prior to playing BJ. Chances are you are going to have some nit wit that is unhappy with your performance that day. You didn't make there sandwich the way they like, or didn't wait on them quick enough or the bus you are driving is 5 minutes late and they berate you. You gotta leave that stuff behing at the end of the work day.

I find that easy to do because I have a travel break at the end of my playing sessions. I take a few minutes on the train and recall my session or trip, maybe making a few notes and then thats it. It's overwith. I take a 20 minute nap and when I wake up , I'm back in my civilian life. I may read the message boards at home and practice and prepare for my next trip, but I never go back and rehash. Just keep moving forward.

 

[Thunder]

The only way I think to really prepare yourself is to EXPECT losses. That's right, expect to lose. That way when you do lose you won't be so upset and when you win, you'll be happy but you'll know that you're bound to have a losing session in the future. Losing is part of the business. The sooner you consider it a "cost of a business" the better you'll be. That said, if you feel yourself getting creamed at a table as in say losing shoe after shoe, it can't hurt to just take a break and try another table. Never let losing affect your decision making. That's the surest way to dig your bj grave.

 

[kewljason]

The only way I think to really prepare yourself is to EXPECT losses. That's right, expect to lose. That way when you do lose you won't be so upset and when you win, you'll be happy but you'll know that you're bound to have a losing session in the future. Losing is part of the business. The sooner you consider it a "cost of a business" the better you'll be.

Very well said, thunder. I very much like that "losing is a cost of business" thought process.

 

[ihate17]

Even cardcounters have selective memory

When variance is going your way and the morons on the table are playing like morons and the smokers are puffing in your direction, it will never bother you as much or at all compared to the same things happening when variance is kicking your butt.
Even after over 30 years I still catch myself grumbling somewhat on bad days. Seeing another player split his 6,6 vs dealer Ace, winning both hands and then being rewarded with a blackjack on the next hand while I get a steady diet of 14,15 and 16 and I am now talking to myself. Had the same things happened while I am doing well I just smile at them.

ihate17

 

[Mr. Francks]

variance

The variance in this game continues to amaze me.

I played a session this past weekend. Started with 150 units as my session bankroll. Within 3 hours I was down 135 units including a 50 unit loss on a single hand (split to 3 hands, two doubles - lost them all). Things turned around at that point and I finished the session up 180 units - a swing of more than 300 units in 5 hours.

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

One thing that might help is to forget about session results. Obviously, you should log them for record-keeping purposes, but you should only focus on long-term results—as long as you're playing with an appropriate amount of risk. Say your selected game and strategy will be worth $20/hour to you. Since your bankroll is separate from money in your wallet that you use to buy groceries and pay bills, you shouldn't care about short-term fluctuations. You're still making $20/hour. If you're playing a good game and playing good counts and still getting creamed, you should be happy that you put as many hands in as possible on that game, as you're getting that much closer to your long term EV.

Here's how I look at it: have you ever made a good decision and gotten burned as a result? Likewise, have you ever intentionally done the wrong thing and been rewarded as a result? Should you feel bad if you do something that you know is ultimately beneficial, even if the immediate result is clearly negative? No way. The more times you repeat an action that has long-term positive consequences, the more you'll eventually benefit, regardless of what happens that day, that week, and so on. Short-term bad luck doesn't mean you should lose confidence in "doing the right thing."

And as has been repeated many times on here before, you should absolutely expect to experience your highest losses during the highest counts. You win more in low counts because the distribution of cards is more random and the odds aren't as heavily weighted in one way or another. When the count is high, those 10s, faces, and aces are also going to help the dealer quite a bit. You WILL lose a lot of these hands. Accept that. You experience crushing losses in the best counts and a lot of flimsy wins in low counts. No big deal. High counts don't ensure more wins, they just ensure that you'll have more profitable double-downs and splits, as well as more naturals.

Finally, if you find that you're simply so stressed that you can't stand the slots, the smoke, the players, or even the dealers, leave. If you're this irritated, you can't play effectively. Take a break, get some fresh air, and come back when you're ready. Good luck!

 

[Automatic Monkey]

...I decided to give the tables one more try today...and promptly blew my entire $800 bankroll in 5 hours. I wasn't betting beyond my means, either; I spread only between $10 and $50...

That's enough information to know that your loss was completely normal and acceptable. Betting a $200 max I've blown $3K in 10 minutes, more than once, and that is also to be expected.

But there's an additional problem: if this was a shoe game, your 1-5 spread really isn't enough to hit it with, even with Wonging out of bad counts. And if it's a pitch game, showing up at the casino with 16 big bets in your pocket isn't enough to avoid this happening way too often. Assuming it's shoe, get your spread up to $10-$100, Wong out of bad counts, and bring $2K with you and things should go a bit better.

 

[psyduck]

Wow! The responses in this thread are really impressive!

 

[creeping panther]

Dwarf

(Forgive me if this post sounds whiny, but I need somewhere to collect my thoughts. I'm not in a great mood.)

Well, I guess it was bound to happen. Having just learned to count (Red7), and after 4 consecutive winning sessions (nothing huge, between $100-$200 each time) I decided to give the tables one more try today...and promptly blew my entire $800 bankroll in 5 hours. I wasn't betting beyond my means, either; I spread only between $10 and $50, and would frequently either leave the table or sit out a few hands if the count went too low.

An especially bothersome thing was that the count just didn't seem to work at all. When I did play through a low count and bet the minimum, I seemed to win MORE often. When the count went sky-high I raised my bet...only to get an 18, see the dealer turn over a total of 6, and then pull a few more 4s and 5s out. (Meanwhile, all the blackjacks go to the other players.) I take insurance against an ace with a count of +10...lose it while the hole card turns out to be...another ace, while the dealer chastises me for insuring a 13 (I can at least see how an Ace side count comes in handy.)

Don't get me wrong, I'm not questioning the legitimacy of counting, and I know about fluctuation in the short run. I've got about $10,000 in savings, of which I've decided I'm comfortable "investing" about $7000--so today's loss wasn't a big deal in the big picture. But it's still discouraging to think that I will have many more sessions like this...possibly even all of them...no matter how much better I get at this.

Another thing that really started getting to me was the casino atmosphere itself. I don't mean the "heat," in fact as far as I could tell there was none at all. But then there's the awful noise from the slots, the constant barrage of cigarette smoke (I had to put up with BOTH players on either side of me lighting up and blowing right in my face for a while), the inane chatter from the morons at the table ("Nothing's hitting today, I'm down $200"...as they stand on a soft 16 against a 9 or hit a hard 17)...I've been able to take it in stride before, and even managed a bit of cover, joking around with the dealers a bit while maintaining my concentration. I can also accept that this particular casino caters to a clientele that is mostly, shall we say, working-class. But today, for whatever reason, it just got to me in a bad way...I found myself on the verge of hyperventilating, and losing the count because of it, more than a few times.

I don't plan on having a career as a pro, at least not right now. I thought counting would be an interesting hobby to take up due to having a lot of time on my hands, and the thrill and excitement of scoring a huge win with the right play on a high count was a lot of fun--in my earlier sessions, anyway. But today there was absolutely NOTHING enjoyable about the experience whatsoever...I felt more like a degenerate compulsive gambler, chasing my losses and staying in spite of the unpleasant atmosphere because "a good count could come along on the next shuffle!" And that is definitely NOT a road I want to go down.

Any help on how to cope would be greatly appreciated...I can accept honest criticism too...if you think it sounds like I'm just not cut out for this, I'm open to it. I'm just looking for reassurance that the roller-coaster ride is really worth it all.

Dwarf, this game is about discipline and emotions and then the math. You also have to be able to think outside the box and use your own brain. Do you think JG got where he is at today by thinking like a robot, never questioning what he read or was told?

There are ways to attack the games and ways to avoid.

You had the emotional problems, hypervent, anger etc. because you were losing and thus getting out of control. The minute you noticed that you should have left immediately.

And no, the big swings and the loses should never be expected or accepted, otherwise you are JUST A GAMBLER.

Face the possibility that this game may not be for you, except as pure entertainment.

CP

 

[psyduck]

And no, the big swings and the loses should never be expected or accepted, otherwise you are JUST A GAMBLER.

CP

I am not an expert on the game, but I do not believe one can avoid swings as long as one has to draw cards from a pool. Even a blackjack can end up with a push.

 

[OneAngryDwarf]

Thank you all for your replies and advice, guys. You are far kinder than I thought you would be.

I have, admittedly, always been the type to "sweat the small stuff" a bit too much, which may mean that this ultimately isn't for me. I guess that's something I'll have to develop as part of my "act"...a cool, collected high-roller who can throw away a grand and not give a damn. With little debt, a relatively steady job and nobody to support, money isn't a huge issue anyway, and I'm quite grateful for that.

I'll practice some more and give it one more try in the next few days...this time with the expectation of losing, just like a smart gambler should.

Best of luck to all

 

[1357111317]

Now this is just my two cents but I think taking your bankroll and paying off all your debt is more +EV than playing blackjack with a +EV.

 

[21gunsalute]

(Forgive me if this post sounds whiny, but I need somewhere to collect my thoughts. I'm not in a great mood.)

Well, I guess it was bound to happen. Having just learned to count (Red7), and after 4 consecutive winning sessions (nothing huge, between $100-$200 each time) I decided to give the tables one more try today...and promptly blew my entire $800 bankroll in 5 hours. I wasn't betting beyond my means, either; I spread only between $10 and $50, and would frequently either leave the table or sit out a few hands if the count went too low.

An especially bothersome thing was that the count just didn't seem to work at all. When I did play through a low count and bet the minimum, I seemed to win MORE often. When the count went sky-high I raised my bet...only to get an 18, see the dealer turn over a total of 6, and then pull a few more 4s and 5s out. (Meanwhile, all the blackjacks go to the other players.) I take insurance against an ace with a count of +10...lose it while the hole card turns out to be...another ace, while the dealer chastises me for insuring a 13 (I can at least see how an Ace side count comes in handy.)

Don't get me wrong, I'm not questioning the legitimacy of counting, and I know about fluctuation in the short run. I've got about $10,000 in savings, of which I've decided I'm comfortable "investing" about $7000--so today's loss wasn't a big deal in the big picture. But it's still discouraging to think that I will have many more sessions like this...possibly even all of them...no matter how much better I get at this.

Another thing that really started getting to me was the casino atmosphere itself. I don't mean the "heat," in fact as far as I could tell there was none at all. But then there's the awful noise from the slots, the constant barrage of cigarette smoke (I had to put up with BOTH players on either side of me lighting up and blowing right in my face for a while), the inane chatter from the morons at the table ("Nothing's hitting today, I'm down $200"...as they stand on a soft 16 against a 9 or hit a hard 17)...I've been able to take it in stride before, and even managed a bit of cover, joking around with the dealers a bit while maintaining my concentration. I can also accept that this particular casino caters to a clientele that is mostly, shall we say, working-class. But today, for whatever reason, it just got to me in a bad way...I found myself on the verge of hyperventilating, and losing the count because of it, more than a few times.

I don't plan on having a career as a pro, at least not right now. I thought counting would be an interesting hobby to take up due to having a lot of time on my hands, and the thrill and excitement of scoring a huge win with the right play on a high count was a lot of fun--in my earlier sessions, anyway. But today there was absolutely NOTHING enjoyable about the experience whatsoever...I felt more like a degenerate compulsive gambler, chasing my losses and staying in spite of the unpleasant atmosphere because "a good count could come along on the next shuffle!" And that is definitely NOT a road I want to go down.

Any help on how to cope would be greatly appreciated...I can accept honest criticism too...if you think it sounds like I'm just not cut out for this, I'm open to it. I'm just looking for reassurance that the roller-coaster ride is really worth it all.

Well except for a couple of minor details, I could have written your post. I've been counting cards for about 6 weeks now, playing several times a week. I've had exactly one winning shoe when the count was "favorable". Except for that one shoe I've lost big time, everytime the count was "favorable" and I'm putting more money on the line. Yet I seem to do quite well when the count is "unfavorable". I still get a lot of 15 and 16 hands while the dealer gets the majority of blackjacks. I double down on 11 and draw an ace or a 2, and the dealer seems to make 20 or 21 everytime a 5 or a 6 is the up card. I'm about ready to give up counting, as I've lost a small fortune trying to make it work. Maybe it works for some people but at this point I think it's a bunch of BS.

 

[UK-21]

Similar threads, discussing poor results and the profound "does card counting really work" question, have gone before.

The fact of the matter is that until anyone has played a sufficient number of hours/hands for the results to even out to the EV, they are just gambling. The benefits and results of card counting do not materialise until that point is reached - it doesn't matter a jot how quick you can count down a deck, how accurate you are on bet sizing etc. There are differing opinions of when you have reached "the long run", and these range from 400 hours / 40,000 hands upwards, but generally the more the better. Until you've got to that point you aren't entitled to say it's "BS", "doesn't work", "it's something casinos have come up with to make us believe the game is beatable" or whatever. The Wizard of Odds sums it up well with his line "Only in the long run, over hundreds of hours of playing, can you count on winning." although we'll forgive him his pun.

So it's about understanding the maths, probabilities and limits of swings/variance before setting foot in the house of chance. If you study the numbers you can calculate beforehand your maximum expected loss based on the HE, bet spread and number of hands you expect to play. So if you know the extent (£££s/$$$s) to which you could lose, the question then becomes one of "how many losing sessions will I experience"? The answer is you may never have a winning one . . . . but as you play more the probabilities of this happening reduce. If after 100 sessions of 100 hands there's never been an occasion where you've walked away with more than you started with I would start to think that something is happening to skew the averages - ie I'm doing something wrong or being cheated in some way.

I think everyone should have a point where they walk away, and not simply carry on regardless of losses because the maths say they'll win in the end. I say this as I believe it's easy to cross over the fine line into compulsive behaviour and even easier to kid yourself you're not suffering with it because you play the only game in the house that can be beaten and are applying a proven winning technique to it. Lost £££s/$$$s are still losses.

I certainly don't have an answer for it all, but I would say don't play another hand until you can sit down and create a spreadsheet and calculate your maximum possible loss for a session, knowing your bet spread, game HE, number of hands you will play. This will put some perspective on it for you. If you're not sure how to do it, start reading - the forum contains recommendations for all of the major texts on the game.

Just my two bob's worth.

 

[creeping panther]

135

Now this is just my two cents but I think taking your bankroll and paying off all your debt is more +EV than playing blackjack with a +EV.

Wise words

CP

 

[creeping panther]

21 Gun

Well except for a couple of minor details, I could have written your post. I've been counting cards for about 6 weeks now, playing several times a week. I've had exactly one winning shoe when the count was "favorable". Except for that one shoe I've lost big time, everytime the count was "favorable" and I'm putting more money on the line. Yet I seem to do quite well when the count is "unfavorable". I still get a lot of 15 and 16 hands while the dealer gets the majority of blackjacks. I double down on 11 and draw an ace or a 2, and the dealer seems to make 20 or 21 everytime a 5 or a 6 is the up card. I'm about ready to give up counting, as I've lost a small fortune trying to make it work. Maybe it works for some people but at this point I think it's a bunch of BS.

The key to the game is SKILLZ, experience, emotions, discipline personality, bankroll...and the *most important* THE GAME YOU SELECT:1st: Surprise Surprise!

In the past I have angered many for saying the games they play were Trash Games and I did not want to MISLEAD NEWBIES into thinking they could make a go of it playing these type of games, I was right then and I am right now, I see it over and over again from the very players that play these games, unless they are employing *special tactics* that not many can master, and not many games offer. I would say that leading Newbies to believe they can beat and win against these Trash games is akin to the debate now going on over banning JSTAT from the site for spouting his clearly strange agenda that can mislead Newbies... what is worse?

CP

 

[kewljason]

The key to the game is SKILLZ, experience, emotions, discipline personality, bankroll...and the *most important* THE GAME YOU SELECT:1st: Surprise Surprise!

In the past I have angered many for saying the games they play were Trash Games and I did not want to MISLEAD NEWBIES into thinking they could make a go of it playing these type of games, I was right then and I am right now, I see it over and over again from the very players that play these games, unless they are employing *special tactics* that not many can master, and not many games offer. I would say that leading Newbies to believe they can beat and win against these Trash games is akin to the debate now going on over banning JSTAT from the site for spouting his clearly strange agenda that can mislead Newbies... what is worse?

CP

Your opinion has been proven wrong, simply by the number of members who succeed playing these "trash" games. I would have to agree with you that you posting this erroneous opinion over and over again in a multitude of threads is indeed akin to JSTAT's behavior. :laugh:

Perhaps it's time that you thank some of us for playing these "trash" games. Otherwise, we would be scouring the country looking for better games. Everyone would end up in your neck of the woods invading your games, which would dry up leaving you with nothing to play. So on behalf of everyone that doesn't have access to great games and plays "trash" games, YOUR WELCOME CP.