Losing Streak

[Anonymous]

The game is killing me. I mean that almost literally.

Once again, my entire trip bankroll was washed away, after being up (sometimes way up) for the first 800 hours, I am now a lifetime loser in advantage play (not counting online activities). I came pretty near throwing up when it was all finally gone. I logged about 11 hours of play in my last trip to Las Vegas. I am done playing for a little while. I have hit the point where I cannot mentally or financially handle more losses. I haven't been sleeping well, and my overall mental state has declined to an unsociable level where I need to step out of the game for a little while.

I figure that my expected value after the last 70 hours I've played is around 12,000 dollars. My actual result is -23k. I did have about a 2 hour window where I finally felt like I was in control of the game. My losses were minimal, I recovered about 3.5k of the previous night's 4k loss. I sat down for one final session and lose 4.5k in 20 minutes.

I am trying to remain objective about the whole issue. I know I'm not talking like a smart guy, but the numbers are so far in the red that I'm beyond reason and logic.

My future plans are to sort of develope a bankroll again. I think I may need to engage in some team play for lower stakes in the game. Team play reduces the variance and plows towards the long run faster. For now though, it's time to take a break.

-Anon

 

[wong out]

Well spoken words. I think that taking a time out is the best strategy at this point if you are at the point where the inevitable losses are affecting you. When you come back consider lowering your bet size so that the swings dont affect you so much. I suspect that you may have been overbetting; to maintain a 150/hr ev requires a decent spread into the midblack range depending on the game. When spreading black a -23K loss is no big deal; happens all the time and is to be expected. Good luck and lower the bets to a level that you are more comfortable with.

wong out - btw there is nothing wrong with hanging up the gloves either. There is nothing particularly about being a successful 21 player and all succesful players that I know can usually make more in other fields than 21.

 

[Alex]

You definitely have OVERBET your bank

You definitely have OVERBET your bank because the numbers don't add up.

If you lost $4,500 in 20 minutes or the equivalent of 33 hands that is about $136 average per round to lost. Your average bet obviously was much bigger then $136. This alone it tells me that you grossly and dangerously over bet your bankroll.

Now, for 33 hands that where in the last 20 minutes, the standard deviation is 1.1*sqrt(33) = +/- 6.32 average bets plus your expectation. Even if we consider that your expectation was only one average bet per hour we still have here 4.5 or a little more standard deviations from the norm. That is the result of OVERBETING! If you over bet your bank you will lose the edge no matter how good of a player you are. The number of units of your bank plays an important role in your final edge. You cannot overbet that bank no matter what.

What was your bank, unit and your average bet?

AlexD30

 

[Frozen thanks to Jacob the Jeweler]

Not the point

You're probably right but try not to get too caught up in the numbers. The point of the post is the sagging losses that can occur. Not everything in the post is exactly as it seems.

 

[learning to count]

My apologies!

Sorry anonymous I thought you were a past troller named piui. The Mayor set me straight! You need to take a break. You losses were devastating. I know I could not handle that kind of loss. Stop look and listen to your own heart. You need a break. Your skill can turn into addiction. You as any one here can admit that we can chase our losses and get hurt much worse! Please calm down take a break the game will always be there. Examine your game and learn from it.

 

[The Mayor]

Re: Not the point

Well put ...

I know the poster and know that there are some details that must be unstated. However, the truth the poster is passing on to us is that no matter how good the opportunity, incredibly bad fortune can come to pass -- and it is not easy to deal with, no matter how strong you think you are.

--Mayor

 

[Alex]

If they don't get you in the beginning then they will not get you at all!

The term of the long run in blackjack has got to be understood by any aspiring player that engage serious money into this game. I will define the pro's way of what the long run is and you can use the same method to evaluate your play/results that will tell you where are you at into this game. One definition will be to look at the expected long run, and the other is looking back at your $$ results to find where are you at and if you hit the point of no return.

The long run is when your expected return, minus a 1.96 x One standard deviation still results in a positive outcome. In other words, enough hours where your overall winnings falls within 95% confidence interval.

Now, a practical definition would be: If you graph 250 hours outcomes by trips/sessions, the point on your graph with an upward drift where the first bottom of a negative swing remains in the positive area of the graph could be considered hitting the long run for a pro player. When at that point you can be assured that you are at the point of no return into the negative/red regardless of the temporarily losing streaks.

In my previous posts I mention quite a lot about 3 standard deviation but I did so because I realize that most of people here are not at the pro level yet. So, a 3 standard deviation is in order to be on the safe side. But, for a pro player we consider that 1.96 x One standard deviations is suffice to tell him that he is within 95% confidence. That in itself is the equivalent of 1 in 20 and that is the pro standard to evaluate your play and find out where you are at.

Practical numbers to work with: If you have 250 hours or 25,000 hands of quality play, then your expected value is going to start to have a very significant impact. After that many hours, a 95% confidence interval would be more useful and informative and will tell you where you are at.
Now, 1StDev(25,000) = 1.1*sqrt(25,000) = +/- 174. The 95% confidence interval is the equivalent of 1.96 standard deviations. So, in our case will be 174*1.96 =+/- 341 average units. If you play with 1.5% edge then your EV = 25,000*1.5% = 375 average units. You can see that your expectation will overcome 1.96 standard deviations and position yourself within 95% confidence interval way over and on very solid positive territory. If your $$ results are positive you confidently can evaluate yourself with 95% certainty that you have at least a 1.5% edge into this game. Practically you are on your way up forever or as long as you play a quality game and do not OVERBET your bank. As you keep accumulating hours of play you will reach a point that even a 0.60% edge will keep you going regardless of what temporarily may happen. Losing streaks or not you cannot lose anymore.

If they don't get you in the beginning then they will not get you at all!

AlexD30

 

[eyesfor21]

what kind of game,what kind of counting

its all different and suited for different styles.
its easy to say one word answers like overbetting your
br,but maybe you did not maybe your play is better
suited for dbl deck.

Maybe the next time you go to a casino set your win
goals very low,and protect your profit, so you do not
give it back,sure it doesn't make any matamatical
sense but we all know it happens.

 

[SammyBoy]

I've been there!

Take a break it will do you good. Be thankful for all the good things in your life. The pain of losing heals in time, and you will be stronger emotionally next time out if you decide to give it another shot. Good luck to you.

 

[Sonny]

Re: If they don't get you in the beginning then they will not get you at all!

> Now, 1StDev(25,000) = 1.1*sqrt(25,000) = +/- 174. The 95% confidence interval
> is the equivalent of 1.96 standard deviations. So, in our case will be
> 174*1.96 =+/- 341 average units. If you play with 1.5% edge then your EV =
> 25,000*1.5% = 375 average units. You can see that your expectation will
> overcome 1.96 standard deviations and position yourself within 95% confidence
> interval way over and on very solid positive territory.

And it all fits so nicely into a spreadsheet!

> When at that point you can be assured that you are at the point of no return
> into the negative/red regardless of the temporarily losing streaks...
> As you keep accumulating hours of play you will reach a point that even a
> 0.60% edge will keep you going regardless of what temporarily may happen.
> Losing streaks or not you cannot lose anymore.

Ah sweet safety, it's only two standard deviations away...most of the time! And after only 250 hours too. That's less than 1.5 months of full time play! All I nedd now is a bankroll

Great post. Good to see you back Alex. This is a new twist on S.D. that I think a lot of people will understand.

-Sonny-

 

[Alex]

You cannot play at the pro level on 8 hours per day

Well, the 250 hours of play are not to be accomplished in 1.5 months. You cannot play at the pro level on 8 hours per day. If you do that you will be playing less optimal. It is extremely hard to remain sharp 8 hours per day when you do it day after day after day.. etc. I would say, from my experience, that probably two sessions per day of 2 hours each is the most optimal schedule and that for only 5 day a week. So, to reach 250 hours you probably can do as a solo player in 3.5 to 4 months.

Now, you really don't need yet a bankroll because if you get one you probably will lose it. What you need is practice to become a pro. You need a small bank that has the equivalent of 2 standard deviations in it. As you know by now, One standard deviation of 25,000 is 174, so a bankroll of 350 average bets will do the job. Get $2,500 practice money. You have there 500 units or a little more then 350 average bets. Play as a pro but with red chips that has # 5 imprinted on ($5 each). Do not get emotionally attached to the chips. We need chips to keep the score. Makes no difference what chips you play with. Play like you would play into the big BJ league with pink or yellow chips that has #500 on it and see if you can pull 1.96 standard deviations and show a profit in 3 months. If you can do that you have a clear picture where you are at. You will get a lot of experience and discipline along the way. What you are looking at is the number of chips at the end and then you can figure what is your average per hour. If you can make 3 chips per hour or 1.5 average bets per hour then you know for sure that you are about at 1.5% edge.

AlexD30