luck

[aslan]

aslan after all that i still wanna bestow upon you our mantle of honor
MMOA Midwest Masters Of Advantage, there is no website honoring the few, the far inbetween and the strong.
hopefully, i can be more than a 'PX hero' lol. the rest that bear it's crest are i can assure one and all the real deal.:1st:

As you can imagine, I didn't have the foggiest (er..fuzziest) what you were talking about, so I looked it up on the WWW. As you can see, my results were a bit farflung, so I'm happy that you have now cleared up the matter of MMOA. Perhaps, you can have a copy of the mantle displayed in the MMOA, although the museum may not understand the significance of this great honor at the present time. It will probably be treated as MOA (Misunderstood on Arrival), which is something I have often been accused of myself. I am particularly happy it does not stand of Mickey Mouse Official Accoutrement. I trust with your support I can live up to my honorary status as a member of the Midwest section of the country, although it with some hesitiancy as I fear Major and Malicious Ostracization by Americans back east.

PS--I do have one small claim to Midwest membership--I have long been a Notre Dame fan, if that qualifies?

PSS--And a wall-eyed bit my steel leader in half while fishing in northern Wisconsin. I am especially proud of that one.

 

[sagefr0g]

As you can imagine, I didn't have the foggiest (er..fuzziest) what you were talking about, so I looked it up on the WWW. As you can see, my results were a bit farflung, so I'm happy that you have now cleared up the matter of MMOA. Perhaps, you can have a copy of the mantle displayed in the MMOA, although the museum may not understand the significance of this great honor at the present time. It will probably be treated as MOA (Misunderstood on Arrival), which is something I have often been accused of myself. I am particularly happy it does not stand of Mickey Mouse Official Accoutrement. I trust with your support I can live up to my honorary status as a member of the Midwest section of the country, although it with some hesitiancy as I fear Major and Malicious Ostracization by Americans back east.

PS--I do have one small claim to Midwest membership--I have long been a Notre Dame fan, if that qualifies?

PSS--And a wall-eyed bit my steel leader in half while fishing in northern Wisconsin. I am especially proud of that one.

not to worry, imho your qualified (within striking distance, trust worthy, understanding, experienced, capable in advantage play and a nice guy). being from Virginia is not a problem.

 

[aslan]

not to worry, imho your qualified (within striking distance, trust worthy, understanding, experienced, capable in advantage play and a nice guy). being from Virginia is not a problem.

Cool! But I have to warn you--I have an accent. Midwesterners, I've been informed, have no accent. I cannot properly enunciate words, such as cow, pronounced, "cal." lol I have other shortcomings, as well, not to mention being an Easterner. I do not know the President, although I have frequently gone by his house, and there are no Congressmen living on my block. I am not on a first name basis with Hillary, but Bill did attend my University. What happened after that had nothing to do with his education. Qfit once lived here, but I did not know him. I think we traveled in different circles. And I am not now, nor ever was, a member of the Weather Underground.

 

[Katweezel]

Poke with a stick

Variance is easy to control once you realize that it is unalterable. At the same time, you must realize that it is designed to never yield the desired outcome. Therefore, you will derive the greatest degree of happy outcomes by simply ignoring it altogether. Beware, however, that if you ignore it for the purpose of influencing a happy outcome, it will only make it yield an unhappy one, as it is designed, as said before, to never yield the desired outcome. Can I make it any clearer?

Aslan, What a pleasure reading your take on variance. I'm so used to reading all that usual whingeing, whining stuff; usually followed by a nerdy math-geek jerk-rant, or even the resident Guru Absolute's view, that I just scroll past. And I've held a similar view as yours, but kept it in my vault, for fear that vast army of lol-ers out there would burn me at the stake. But here you are, in full and open view of The Pope, not afraid of the stake, nor of the Inquisition. Are you a reincarnation of Galileo or something?

I haven't been able to find out yet, from Sage's frog-image picture, exactly what his frog is doing to those what look like aliens in front; but your shiny billiard balls, with the ever-problematic black centrally positioned, invite a poke with a stick.

Back to variance, you say: "...that it is designed to never yield the desired outcome."
You seem to be somehow familiar with the designer, familiar with at least one of the designer's goals and there is a hint you may have had some idea as to the designer's motives and intent. The designer may have possessed all those aspects, presumably long before those nasty little (now) plastic things called...cards, came to be invented, by, was it the Chinese?

Next time, I'd like, if I may, to open my vault and let a few ferrets in there out for a walk. They like a chat.

 

[Katweezel]

Puzzling puzzles

As you can imagine, I didn't have the foggiest (er..fuzziest) what you were talking about, so I looked it up on the WWW. As you can see, my results were a bit farflung, so I'm happy that you have now cleared up the matter of MMOA. Perhaps, you can have a copy of the mantle displayed in the MMOA, although the museum may not understand the significance of this great honor at the present time. It will probably be treated as MOA (Misunderstood on Arrival), which is something I have often been accused of myself. I am particularly happy it does not stand of Mickey Mouse Official Accoutrement. I trust with your support I can live up to my honorary status as a member of the Midwest section of the country, although it with some hesitiancy as I fear Major and Malicious Ostracization by Americans back east.

PS--I do have one small claim to Midwest membership--I have long been a Notre Dame fan, if that qualifies?
PSS--And a wall-eyed bit my steel leader in half while fishing in northern Wisconsin. I am especially proud of that one.

Please pardon my ignorance of the local idiom, culture and customs, and my geography is not all that precise either. You could help me with these, if you so choose: 1 Where exactly is the 'Midwest?' Are there lines on a map? Is the Midwest same as The Bible Belt? Are there lines for that, too? Did Custer have his Last Stand near there? Does Joe Bageant hang out there?

2 I have seen many a walleye hanging around casinos. But none, to date, has ever bitten anything of mine in half. Why would they pick on you?
3 What kind of a Dame was Notre? 3.5 Is MOA about the same as DOA?

 

[sagefr0g]

Please pardon my ignorance of the local idiom, culture and customs, and my geography is not all that precise either. You could help me with these, if you so choose: 1 Where exactly is the 'Midwest?' Are there lines on a map? Is the Midwest same as The Bible Belt? Are there lines for that, too? Did Custer have his Last Stand near there? Does Joe Bageant hang out there?

2 I have seen many a walleye hanging around casinos. But none, to date, has ever bitten anything of mine in half. Why would they pick on you?
3 What kind of a Dame was Notre? 3.5 Is MOA about the same as DOA?

technically, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Midwest
the states in red..... but whats a few thousand miles matter....

 

[aslan]

Aslan, What a pleasure reading your take on variance. I'm so used to reading all that usual whingeing, whining stuff; usually followed by a nerdy math-geek jerk-rant, or even the resident Guru Absolute's view, that I just scroll past. And I've held a similar view as yours, but kept it in my vault, for fear that vast army of lol-ers out there would burn me at the stake. But here you are, in full and open view of The Pope, not afraid of the stake, nor of the Inquisition. Are you a reincarnation of Galileo or something?

I haven't been able to find out yet, from Sage's frog-image picture, exactly what his frog is doing to those what look like aliens in front; but your shiny billiard balls, with the ever-problematic black centrally positioned, invite a poke with a stick.

Back to variance, you say: "...that it is designed to never yield the desired outcome."
You seem to be somehow familiar with the designer, familiar with at least one of the designer's goals and there is a hint you may have had some idea as to the designer's motives and intent. The designer may have possessed all those aspects, presumably long before those nasty little (now) plastic things called...cards, came to be invented, by, was it the Chinese?

Next time, I'd like, if I may, to open my vault and let a few ferrets in there out for a walk. They like a chat.

Well, that was nice of you to say. I wouldn't worry about the lol-ers. I'm one of them, but I try to keep it good-natured and in fun. I've only had one fella tune me out with an "ignore," which is just as well, since we would get into pissing contests. He brought out the worst in me and I brought out the worst in him. He gave up on me indicating I was the biggest, most boring imbecile he had ever talked with. lol He thinks he won, because he quit first, I think I won, because I still had hopes for some sort of reconciliation and common ground.

Sagefr0g is a cool guy, and never gets out of line like me. You can trust him with your first born.

Brint out the ferrets. We're a regular zoo here! As:dog:lan

 

[sagefr0g]

....
Sagefr0g is a cool guy, and never gets out of line like me. You can trust him with your first born.
. As:dog:lan

unless, under certain circumstances and she's over 18. :devil::whip:

 

[Katweezel]

Hot symbols for a cool guy

Well, that was nice of you to say. I wouldn't worry about the lol-ers. I'm one of them, but I try to keep it good-natured and in fun. I've only had one fella tune me out with an "ignore," which is just as well, since we would get into pissing contests. He brought out the worst in me and I brought out the worst in him. He gave up on me indicating I was the biggest, most boring imbecile he had ever talked with. lol He thinks he won, because he quit first, I think I won, because I still had hopes for some sort of reconciliation and common ground.

Sagefr0g is a cool guy, and never gets out of line like me. You can trust him with your first born.

Brint out the ferrets. We're a regular zoo here! As:dog:lan

So Sage is a cool guy. Boy, he uses hot symbols for a cg! I thought I'd be a smarty-pants and combine a reply post to you both, into one. Cuts down on brain-ink.
Sage, thanks for the map. I counted 12 red squares that make up the Midwest. On close inspection, some nearby states, particularly to the SE, S, SW and W might have been unlucky not to have been included in the Red. Are some envious or jealous?

You remained silent on Bageant, Custer and Bible Belts. Is this because you never hung out with any of them?

Aslan, As for this regular zoo here, we got bears, frogs and ferrets already; and some 3,500 chimps I have tapping away at typewriters elsewhere, trying to replicate the works of Shakespeare. It's a small but impressively-growing zoo. My ferrets will come out soon, when the moon is right.

Meanwhile, I found a quote you may consider replacing your dog-wolf thing, which could be approaching its use-by date.

"The racecourse is as level as a billiard ball." John Francombe UK racecaller

 

[aslan]

So Sage is a cool guy. Boy, he uses hot symbols for a cg! I thought I'd be a smarty-pants and combine a reply post to you both, into one. Cuts down on brain-ink.
Sage, thanks for the map. I counted 12 red squares that make up the Midwest. On close inspection, some nearby states, particularly to the SE, S, SW and W might have been unlucky not to have been included in the Red. Are some envious or jealous?

You remained silent on Bageant, Custer and Bible Belts. Is this because you never hung out with any of them?

Aslan, As for this regular zoo here, we got bears, frogs and ferrets already; and some 3,500 chimps I have tapping away at typewriters elsewhere, trying to replicate the works of Shakespeare. It's a small but impressively-growing zoo. My ferrets will come out soon, when the moon is right.

Meanwhile, I found a quote you may consider replacing your dog-wolf thing, which could be approaching its use-by date.

"The racecourse is as level as a billiard ball." John Francombe UK racecaller

Actually. my bear is a dog according to the Forum and its list of smilies. I too think it resembles a bear, but I am assured it is a dog. Anyway, that's what I am taking it for--Aslan, the dog.

Now why would I want to quote other than myself? At least I can vouch for its authenticity. Does the racecourse relate somehow to conspiracy theorists? The racecourse may be, but the race certainly is not, how should I say it, on the level? I guess that is implied. Stop it. Now I have totally confused myself!

 

[Katweezel]

Rumor monger

Actually. my bear is a dog according to the Forum and its list of smilies. I too think it resembles a bear, but I am assured it is a dog. Anyway, that's what I am taking it for--Aslan, the dog.

Now why would I want to quote other than myself? At least I can vouch for its authenticity. Does the racecourse relate somehow to conspiracy theorists? The racecourse may be, but the race certainly is not, how should I say it, on the level? I guess that is implied. Stop it. Now I have totally confused myself!

Oh, sorry, I had no idea you were quoting yourself. I wrongly assumed you were quoting somebody else called, Aslan, a renowned mystic from maybe the 16th century or thereabouts...Anyway, whatever, whosoever quotes, I suppose they all reach a use-by date at some point. Now I am fully conversant with that very witty and clever wolf/dog one. It has whetted my appetite for more. What else is in your box of quote tricks? Come on, show me/us more! George Bush has a book called 'Bushisms', not written by him, of course. Very funny read...

My racecourse quote I chose because it was the only one I could find that had pool or billiard balls in it. It was the best I could come up with, seeing as I am not creative enough to think up one myself. No conspiracy in it, but.

I will leave you with one of my favorite conspiracy theories: The casino industry secretly put up a lot of money to fund the movie '21', so that lots more predominantly young men would be enticed into card counting 'glamour and excitement' and so the casinos, since then, are making more money than ever out of blackjack, despite the downturn. Can you find out from all those casino corporation chiefs that you know personally, if this vicious rumor that I started, is true?

 

[aslan]

Oh, sorry, I had no idea you were quoting yourself. I wrongly assumed you were quoting somebody else called, Aslan, a renowned mystic from maybe the 16th century or thereabouts...Anyway, whatever, whosoever quotes, I suppose they all reach a use-by date at some point. Now I am fully conversant with that very witty and clever wolf/dog one. It has whetted my appetite for more. What else is in your box of quote tricks? Come on, show me/us more! George Bush has a book called 'Bushisms', not written by him, of course. Very funny read...

My racecourse quote I chose because it was the only one I could find that had pool or billiard balls in it. It was the best I could come up with, seeing as I am not creative enough to think up one myself. No conspiracy in it, but.

I will leave you with one of my favorite conspiracy theories: The casino industry secretly put up a lot of money to fund the movie '21', so that lots more predominantly young men would be enticed into card counting 'glamour and excitement' and so the casinos, since then, are making more money than ever out of blackjack, despite the downturn. Can you find out from all those casino corporation chiefs that you know personally, if this vicious rumor that I started, is true?

To address the last first...I am sure that when the casinos caught wind of the movie 21 they thought it was a good idea. I don't know whether they ponied up any money to help it along, but I am sure that they cooperated in any way they could to make it a success. Didn't they use one or more of the Vegas casinos for the filming? Well, there you go--it's not a theory, it's a fact.

How would you know whether I know any casino CEOs anyway? Do you have a second identity here on the Forum and you are using this one for some secretive purpose, such as to voice opinions that you would not want to associate with the other name? Cool idea. lol

I figured that was your reason for using the billiard ball quote. Buzz off!

We could have a book called Aslanisms. Nobody would read it. It would only be funny on the Forum. I'd prefer to do one called Katweezelisms. But you'll need to spend a few months on the Forum expounding your most valued thoughts, (insert tongue in cheek) thereby endearing yourself to the rest of us (dislodge), so that we will have the needed material to do you (ITIC) justice(D).

How about a completely unknown halfwit from the twenty-first century? Anymore bullshit? Call my PR man---his name is Shadroch.

PS--To paraphrase Riggo, "Lighten up, Weezie, man."

 

[sagefr0g]

easing this back on track outa fear of the bullet chaser

'...The time has come,' the Walrus said, 'To speak of many things; Of shoes and ships and sealing wax, Of cabbages and kings and why the sea is boiling hot...'
http://wonderingminstrels.blogspot.com/2000/02/walrus-and-carpenter-lewis-carroll.html

Deepak Chopra (a Siddha Yoga devotee) and highly-acclaimed author, has said the Universe is one vast energy field where all is connected. (Now this is interesting because here is a clue concerning many gambling mysteries!) Chopra has some very interesting ideas.
..........
There is a force, an energy that makes up the Universe. Everything is composed of this same energy. There is only ONE energy. There is only high-frequency energy, or lower-than high. I choose my energy level with my consistent and persistent thoughts.

This energy is called 'Wellbeing' and the more I focus on it with my thoughts, the more of it flows through me and my life, and the more like it's intrinsic Essence I become. I cannot stop the flow of it to me, I can only pinch it off and restrict its flow by my own resistance.

Hebrews 11
1 Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen. 2 For by it the elders obtained a good report.
3 Through faith we understand that the worlds were framed by the word of God, so that things which are seen were not made of things which do appear

Mathew 17
And Jesus said unto them, Because of your unbelief: for verily I say unto you, If ye have faith as a grain of mustard seed, ye shall say unto this mountain, Remove hence to yonder place; and it shall remove; and nothing shall be impossible unto you

ok guys have at, just please keep it about luck.........
and i promise to quit bragging about MMOA and making bad jokes about peoples daughters.:cat::whip:

 

[aslan]

'...The time has come,' the Walrus said, 'To speak of many things; Of shoes and ships and sealing wax, Of cabbages and kings and why the sea is boiling hot...'
http://wonderingminstrels.blogspot.com/2000/02/walrus-and-carpenter-lewis-carroll.html



ok guys have at, just please keep it about luck.........
and i promise to quit bragging about MMOA and making bad jokes about peoples daughters.:cat::whip:

Oh, my lucky stars! Count your lucky stars. How do you know which ones are yours? Do you need a star book? Can you see them on a clear night? Can we both have the same lucky star? Will I know it when I see it? What do I do after I count them? Do I report it to some astronomical society? Does the government keep track? What is a good number to have? Can I get more than I already have? How do I know if I’ve missed one? Can you do it all in one night? Should I bring a notebook? Do they make clickers, like the ones they use for counting cars? What if I count one twice? Will I get in trouble for a false count? Is anyone checking?

This must be your lucky day! How does he know? Do you just get one lucky day? If you just get one, is it once a year, or for your whole life? What if you get more than one? How many could you get? What determines what the day is and how many you get? Can I get more from year to year? If no one tells me it must be my lucky day, will I know it on my own? Is there a way to know in advance when your lucky day will be? Should you plan a lot of stuff on that day? I think it might be a good time to buy a lottery ticket, mortgage your house and put all the money on the number 7 at roulette and let it ride three times in a row, tell your wife what you really think, ask the boss for a fat raise or else you’ll quit, drive your car 150 miles an hour on the freeway, and ask the first beautiful woman you see if she’d like to f###.

Do you feel lucky? View attachment 1752 What does it feel like? Is it fuzzy and warm, or is it dark and cold? Will you know it when you feel it, or might you feel it but think it was something else? I feel lousy, when really you should run to the crap table and bet it all on one roll! Or I feel hot an sweaty when really you should be putting $5,000 on your Keno card, twenty numbers, one play!

His luck is running out! Where does it go? Why does it go? Is it fast, or does it run slowly? Can you catch it before it leaves? Does it just start running, or are there early warning signals? If you know when it was going to start running, could you tie it down? Grab it by the neck? Entice it to stay? Compliment it? Dote on it? Buy it a drink? Step on it? Knock it unconscious? Stuff it in your pocket? Talk sweetly to it? Invite it home to dinner? Choke it? Follow it and see where it goes? I see you! I know where you are! Come back now, you’ve had your fun!

His luck ran out? All of it? How much did he have to begin with? Does everyone get the same amount? Can you see it when it’s getting low? Can you replenish it? If you run out, where can you get some more? Is it hard to find? Is there a luck station where you can just luck up and be on your way? Do you get a certain amount each day, so if you run out today, you can wait until tomorrow, and you’ll get some more? How does it come? Can you see it coming? How long do you usually have to wait? Can you get some extra in advance? Can it run out for good? No, that wouldn’t be good. Can it run out completely? What do you do after that? Is it safe to walk outdoors? Should you wear Kleenex boxes on your feet to avoid germs? Should you have food delivered to your room? If you go outside, should you avoid the elevator? Is it better to drive your car or hail a taxi?

Why is it that my good fortune is luck, and your good fortune is SKILL? Is luck something I should be ashamed of? Should I be happy to lose my shirt with skill, but be sad to win a million dollars with luck? Should I give back all my lucky winnings and only keep the ones I win by skill? If I become skilled like you, will I lose all my luck? If you lose your skill, will you become lucky like me? How does luck know where to go? Is there a formula? Do you have to be lucky to get more luck? If that is the case, then does that explain what you mean when you say, to those who have, more will be given? What do I do if I am unlucky? Doesn’t that mean I will probably not get any more? Isn’t that unfair?

Lady Luck? Isn’t it a good thing that luck is not just a woman, but a Lady? Does that mean you must treat her in a certain manner if you want her to stay? How do you talk to her? “Come on, Baby, Daddy needs a new pair of shoes?! Would a Lady wish to be spoken to like that? “Come to Papa, Baby!?” Again, this seems a violation of good etiquette. “Stay with me, Sweetheart” or “Please don’t leave me” sound a bit more appropriate. Do you tell her how lucky she makes you feel?

I’m the luckiest man in the world! View attachment 1753 Is this possible? Does that mean that luck is not evenly distributed as believed by many? If he is the luckiest man in the world, how lucky is that? Can he inhale Anthrax with no harmful effects? Can he throw caution to the winds? How lucky can one be? What is the largest amount of money that a lucky man can bet and still win? If you bet too much, will your luck leave you? If you bet too little will your luck leave you? How do you know what the right amount is? Is it okay to bet your wife’s savings (not a typo)? Or will that cause you luck to run out?

Good luck! We wish people good luck. Does that help them get lucky? If you don’t wish it, will it happen anyway? Who is listening to your wish? Is it Lady Luck? I thought she was a fairy tale. Is it God? Is He up there looking down on mankind and He hears Billy Joe say “good luck” to Tom, so he immediately dispatches a package of luck to Tom. Is that the way it works? Does Tom feel it when it gets there? “Oh, I feel lucky all of a sudden. I think I’ll step in front of this speeding car, or better yet, I think I’ll play a little blackjack!” If we forget to wish people luck, is that the reason why there is so much tragedy in the world? Good luck to you. Good luck! Have a lucky day! Be lucky! May the Good Lord shine His Face upon you! Have a nice day! Maybe it’s our fault the market is crashing! Did you wish your stockbroker good luck when you saw him last? Did you write the company you invested in and wish the board of directors, “Good luck!” There are just so many things to think about. This luck thing is really complicated!

Luck is on your side! Does luck take sides? How do you get it to be on your side? Do the good guys always get the lucky breaks? I don’t think so. What do you have to do to get luck to join forces with you? I think maybe admitting where all your good fortune comes from might be good for starters. I mean, nobody likes a braggart. “I worked hard and all my hard work resulted in making me the champion of the world.” “I’m so good, it is no wonder I win every time!” “You can’t stop me. I am just too much!” “This year’s win proves once again that I am the best there is!” No, we all know what those statements will cause. Naw. The right way is to keep it low key. “I got lucky!” “Everyone else did a great job, but I guess I’m the lucky one!” “Just shows you what a little luck can do.” “It was all luck!” “I guess I was just in the right place at the right time.” Try these, See if it doesn’t keep luck in your corner.

Luck is as luck does. If you want to be lucky, act lucky! It takes practice. Play the role. You may be luckier than you think.

Test your luck. What does that mean? DO you take some kind of test? Like an LSAT? According to test results we find you to be lucky to get into any school whatsoever! No. I think it means to like to test the waters. Hit a hard 17. If you win, that’s a sign. If you see a banana peel, step on it. If you don’t slip, consider yourself lucky. But you must also determine just how lucky you are. Double you bet. If you win, let it all ride. If you win again, let it all ride again. Keep doing this until you lose. The number of times you do this successfully will tell you exactly how lucky you are. If something happens and they close down the table right in the middle of your test, and say, you are 7 or more bets ahead, consider yourself at the peak of your luck.

Lucky in love. View attachment 1754 (<---er...eh..my two daughters :grinThis refers to a guy who has an easy time of it with the opposite sex, but is unlucky in everything else. My advice to you, if you have this condition, is to tell your girlfriend to kiss off! Get lost! Beat it , kiddo! Scram! Go play in traffic! You see, what you want to do is get rid of the wrong kind of luck and replace it with the kind that brings fortune. With fortune you can still have all the women you want!

I was really lucky that zg gave me the name of a hairstylist to go to. He also does Dennis Rodman. What do you think? View attachment 1750

Have a happy-go-lucky holiday season. View attachment 1751

 

[blackchipjim]

lucky lucky...

Oh wise frog where have we gone with thread and where will it lead? Luck is a state of mind and is almost uncontrollable from the average human standpoint. You must recognize when you are in the state of luck and use it wisely to your advantage. It does not come to a person that will not recognize it nor will it stay for long to those who abuse it. It is trully a state of mind and should be used wisely as is any gift. blackchipjim

 

[sagefr0g]

Oh wise frog where have we gone with thread and where will it lead? Luck is a state of mind and is almost uncontrollable from the average human standpoint. You must recognize when you are in the state of luck and use it wisely to your advantage. It does not come to a person that will not recognize it nor will it stay for long to those who abuse it.

IMHO i believe your statement may summarize two salient points regarding luck and cogniton of it's nature.
to your statement one point being implications of risk and the other point being leverage.
and luck being a short term phenomenon (that can according to our perception presents in long or short streaks) affords us (should we recognize it) the option of making advantageous decisions regarding risk and leverage.

It is trully a state of mind and should be used wisely as is any gift. blackchipjim

and yes the implication here is the idea of applying (in essence) a utility function not necessarily with maths such as here:http://homepage.mac.com/j.norstad/finance/util.pdf (Archive copy)
and here:http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/paper.htm (Archive copy)
but just simple human decision making and judgement.
as such the ambivalence of wisdom may lead to more luck and admittedly lucks opposite.
edit: ==>> perhaps for some (professionals excluded) a more attractive option than living inside some mathematicians pigeon hole having been dreamt up. nice guideline though.

 

[aslan]

IMHO i believe your statement may summarize two salient points regarding luck and cogniton of it's nature.
to your statement one point being implications of risk and the other point being leverage.
and luck being a short term phenomenon (that can according to our perception presents in long or short streaks) affords us (should we recognize it) the option of making advantageous decisions regarding risk and leverage.

and yes the implication here is the idea of applying (in essence) a utility function not necessarily with maths such as here:http://homepage.mac.com/j.norstad/finance/util.pdf (Archive copy)
and here:http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/paper.htm (Archive copy)
but just simple human decision making and judgement.
as such the ambivalence of wisdom may lead to more luck and admittedly lucks opposite.
edit: ==>> perhaps for some (professionals excluded) a more attractive option than living inside some mathematicians pigeon hole having been dreamt up. nice guideline though.

It's hard to get a collar around your neck, SF, yet alone a straight jacket! lol

I'd say that wisdom, ambivalent or not, dictates that the attempt to capture a black swan, or even sight one, for that matter, makes ample noise to scare the rare creature far away. You really have to sneak up on these critters, and the slightest attempt to do so, sends them scattering to parts unknown. I have found that the best way to stumble on one of these heavenly creatures is to have them the farthest thing from your mind. Then, and only then, might they be caught frolicking about in the water, cares to the winds, having a delightful time of it and totally unaware of your inadvertent presence. On the other hand, your forgetfulness of them does not in the least attract them, it only makes it possible for you to happen upon one or more of them. The fact is, they are so rare that complete silence and invisibility hardly increases your chances of finding one even a scosh.

There is one other way, but I hesitate to tell you about this way. Well, I will anyway. If you merit one, you can surely find one. Now, I can't tell you more than this, but it's a fact, those who deserve to find a black swan, invariably happen upon one. Now, unfortunately, I cannot tell you how to deserve one, but do not despair, for you know the answer to this one. Yes, somewhere buried in that psyche of yours in the answer to the black swan, but only you know the answer for you. My answer is different from yours, and so it is with everyone--we all have different answers, yet each one leads straightaway to the rarest creature on earth. Good luck in your quest, my fearless frog friend. Good luck! Oh! And if you find one, don't be surprised if you let it go. It's a mystery, but often the very one who deserves it most, is the one who sets it free. Good hunting! View attachment 1756

 

[sagefr0g]

It's hard to get a collar around your neck, SF, yet alone a straight jacket! lol

lol.

I'd say that wisdom, ambivalent or not, dictates that the attempt to capture a black swan, or even sight one, for that matter, makes ample noise to scare the rare creature far away. You really have to sneak up on these critters, and the slightest attempt to do so, sends them scattering to parts unknown. I have found that the best way to stumble on one of these heavenly creatures is to have them the farthest thing from your mind. Then, and only then, might they be caught frolicking about in the water, cares to the winds, having a delightful time of it and totally unaware of your inadvertent presence. On the other hand, your forgetfulness of them does not in the least attract them, it only makes it possible for you to happen upon one or more of them. The fact is, they are so rare that complete silence and invisibility hardly increases your chances of finding one even a scosh.

i just say guard against the bad ones and take advantage of the good ones.
one thing for sure, even if we don't know they are out there, act as if they are. so be scared as hell and happy as a lark at the same time.
thing is in the casino luck is pretty well understood, quantified and tamed. maybe there are some black swans lurking within casino walls but i suspect that in a casino they are much rarer than outside the casino walls. most of the ones in casino's are sort of greyish, lol. i'd say this, if your outside the casino walls and even just supsect a bad black swan is comming your way, run like hell.

There is one other way, but I hesitate to tell you about this way. Well, I will anyway. If you merit one, you can surely find one. Now, I can't tell you more than this, but it's a fact, those who deserve to find a black swan, invariably happen upon one. Now, unfortunately, I cannot tell you how to deserve one, but do not despair, for you know the answer to this one. Yes, somewhere buried in that psyche of yours in the answer to the black swan, but only you know the answer for you. My answer is different from yours, and so it is with everyone--we all have different answers, yet each one leads straightaway to the rarest creature on earth. Good luck in your quest, my fearless frog friend. Good luck! Oh! And if you find one, don't be surprised if you let it go. It's a mystery, but often the very one who deserves it most, is the one who sets it free. Good hunting!

yeah, i got one of them and it's out flying around like it should be. if you catch it, it's got my collar on it. let it go again, i need it back every so often.

 

[aslan]

lol.

i just say guard against the bad ones and take advantage of the good ones.
one thing for sure, even if we don't know they are out there, act as if they are. so be scared as hell and happy as a lark at the same time.
thing is in the casino luck is pretty well understood, quantified and tamed. maybe there are some black swans lurking within casino walls but i suspect that in a casino they are much rarer than outside the casino walls. most of the ones in casino's are sort of greyish, lol. i'd say this, if your outside the casino walls and even just supsect a bad black swan is comming your way, run like hell.

yeah, i got one of them and it's out flying around like it should be. if you catch it, it's got my collar on it. let it go again, i need it back every so often.

How do you guard against a completely unknown surprise?

You said black swans are rare in the casinos. Not the bad ones. The bad ones may be more common there than you realize. A lady who worked at Arizona Charlie casino's cashier cage (how's that for inadvertent alliteration?) said she met 8 to 10 people a month (or was it a week) who had lost their life savings in casinos. Multiply that by the number if casinos in Vegas. Wow! I would have been surprised if a 100 people a year (presumably older or retired people) gambled away their life's savings. In this case, black swans must have appeared as illusions that, if you just keep trying, you will win. If it wasn't so tragic, I'd laugh.:sad:

If you suspect one is coming, which way do you run? They always come when and where you least expect them. Maybe, if you run in the direction that you expect it will come, you will miss it, but on the other hand, if you don't think it will come there, then it will probably get you. Yikes!! Is there no way out!! This makes Schrodinger's cat seem like child's play!!

If I catch it, it's because I deserve it, not you. If you deserved it, you would have already caught it. I suspect I'll let it go anyway, which leads me to believe that I will not be catching it anytime soon. :laugh:

 

[sagefr0g]

How do you guard against a completely unknown surprise?

skeptical empiricism. well admittedly anything that can go wrong will and just about anything can. lol. thing is risk taking is, well risky behavior. limiting exposure to risk by curtailing risky behavior, essentially curtailing ventures that are not known. if you know there are white swans, it's relatively safe to make a bet that there are white swans (even though they all could suddenly become extinct). but betting that there are no black swans just because you don't know if there are any or not is risky. so you can guard against a completely unknown surprise by not heavily investing in a bet for which you can only infer the value of the bet rather than know it.

You said black swans are rare in the casinos. Not the bad ones. The bad ones may be more common there than you realize. A lady who worked at Arizona Charlie casino's cashier cage (how's that for inadvertent alliteration?) said she met 8 to 10 people a month (or was it a week) who had lost their life savings in casinos. Multiply that by the number if casinos in Vegas. Wow! I would have been surprised if a 100 people a year (presumably older or retired people) gambled away their life's savings. In this case, black swans must have appeared as illusions that, if you just keep trying, you will win. If it wasn't so tragic, I'd laugh.:sad:

thats a black swan to me, i'd have never dreamed so many would push their luck to such an extent. mind bogglingly sad.
just as sad, more so i think, because investing is envisioned by so many trusting souls according to the viewpoint that 'investing for your future' is not gambling, speaking here of the plight of so many business's and people whose retirement prospects have been ruined or put on uncertain hold because of the current economic situation. and this sort of thing is known to happen, repeatedly.
thing is those folks who lost their fortune in the casino you speak of, well i hate to use a shister's phrase but i'm gonna, those folks could have known even should have known the level of risk they faced.
those trying to evaluate thier risks in the markets face a more daunting task. essentially that disparity in being able to evaluate risk is what i meant when i stated that i suspect black swans are rarer within the walls of a casino than they are outside of those walls.
in the casino the law of large numbers will out, the math is well known, outside the casino one can take no such comfort excepting on 'known issues'. admittedly known issues can bear risk, but not to the extent that inferred issues can.

If you suspect one is coming, which way do you run? They always come when and where you least expect them. Maybe, if you run in the direction that you expect it will come, you will miss it, but on the other hand, if you don't think it will come there, then it will probably get you. Yikes!! Is there no way out!! This makes Schrodinger's cat seem like child's play!!

hey, there are some things even i don't know. LMAO :joker::whip:
i can just tell you a month or so ago i was walking along a path in a wooded area. the remmnants of hurricane Ike were passing through. a huge tree branch directly high above my noggin (location unknown to me) was snapped by the winds with a resounding cracking exploding noise. i ran like hell, not knowing which way to go, lol, i crisscrossed, lol.

If I catch it, it's because I deserve it, not you. If you deserved it, you would have already caught it. I suspect I'll let it go anyway, which leads me to believe that I will not be catching it anytime soon. :laugh:

yeah, you'll let it go. and then i'll get my chance again. lol.