Math/Stats/% Adv behind Ace Locating??

[PierceNation]

Yo whassup,

Somewhere on the Internets I read that Ace Locating/Sequence tracking can bring up to a 50% Advantage.

I appreciate that this is most probably ridiculous, but it did lead me to wonder about the advantages you can take from sequence and ace locating. I have the trackers cookbook but it doesn't go into the math or the advantages. Is there any text out there that goes into it?

i.e If I know there are 2 aces coming up in the next hand, what is my advantage?!

Cheers in advance guys.

Pierce.

 

[HockeXpert]

The 50% advantage you are refering to is your approximate advantage if the first card you are dealt is an ace. I believe the advantage is slightly over 50%.

HockeXpert

 

[PierceNation]

The 50% advantage you are refering to is your approximate advantage if the first card you are dealt is an ace. I believe the advantage is slightly over 50%.

HockeXpert

Cheers, that explains where the 50% figure came from!

What I really want to nail though is, what my % adv is knowing that an ace is coming. For instance

'I know theres an ace coming, theres a running count of +10 with 3 decks remaining that means I have xxx percent advantage therefore I bet xxx amount'

Cheers,

Pierce.

 

[Sonny]

'I know theres an ace coming, theres a running count of +10 with 3 decks remaining...

You probably wouldn't be counting if you were tracking the aces. Your brainpower is usually better spent trying to track more aces than counting.

...that means I have xxx percent advantage therefore I bet xxx amount'

I like this answer:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=186199&postcount=6

-Sonny-

 

[PierceNation]

I like this answer:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=186199&postcount=6

-Sonny-

Cheers dude, That helps alot

Pierce.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Quite So

The 50% advantage you are refering to is your approximate advantage if the first card you are dealt is an ace. I believe the advantage is slightly over 50%.

HockeXpert

I think the advantage of a definate A on your hand is 43%. However, it does not matter much since you are limited in the amount you can probably bet do to table max's, available chips/cash etc.

:joker::whip:

 

[HockeXpert]

Quite so

Here are your approximate advantages in a BJ game knowing your first card has a 1 in N chance of being an ace...

N=
13: -0.42%
12: -0.06%
11: 0.36%
10: 0.87%
9: 1.49%
8: 2.26%
7: 3.26%
6: 4.58%
5: 6.44%
4: 9.23%
3: 13.68%
2: 23.15%
1: 51%

Straight from the amonkey's mouth:laugh: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=129309&postcount=6

I know I've read it several other places as well so it's not just a bunch of AM s***.

BJ Avenger: You may be confusing this with the value of an ace as either card in your hand. Don't ask me what that is worth.

HockeXpert

 

[Brock Windsor]

Of course this changes if the dealer has a better than random chance of getting an ace. Which is often the case when sequencing.
-BW

 

[blackjack avenger]

Ace

Straight from the amonkey's mouth:laugh: http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=129309&postcount=6

BJ Avenger: You may be confusing this with the value of an ace as either card in your hand. Don't ask me what that is worth.

HockeXpert

42.08% Grosjean, You know an A is coming

:joker::whip:

 

[zengrifter]

You probably wouldn't be counting if you were tracking the aces. Your brainpower is usually better spent trying to track more aces than counting.

Thats why I feel that A-tracking at 2D is an ideal proposition - it combines easily with counting. zg

 

[zengrifter]

Of course this changes if the dealer has a better than random chance of getting an ace. Which is often the case when sequencing.
-BW

zg

 

[sagefr0g]

it's a lot to it

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/feature/4208.pdf (Archive copy)
....... i need to read this, lol.......:whip:

 

[HockeXpert]

42.08% Grosjean, You know an A is coming

:joker::whip:

I'll check out ECAA when I get home in a couple of weeks.

"You know an A is coming" is not the same thing as your first card WILL be an ace unless this is taken out of context like "you saw the the dealer flash a next card A and you know an A is coming".

HockeXpert

 

[Nynefingers]

42.08% Grosjean, You know an A is coming

:joker::whip:

If I remember right, 42.08% is the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet if you know you will get an ace as your first card. Not your advantage. As stated before, your advantage is slightly better than 50%, depending on rules.

 

[HockeXpert]

Thanks, NyneFingers. That makes complete sense.

I do remember reading in GJ's bible what the correct wager was when you are certain your first card will be an ace. It must be 42.08%.