Maximizing Match Play Coupons

weavin42

weavin42

Well-Known Member
At a local casino they are having a special promo where if you play for two hours, any game, you can receive two match play coupons worth $25 each. My roommate and I play enough poker and AP blackjack to get two coupons every day that we go to the casino. I'm pretty sure the coupons only pay 1:1 odds but both of us swear to being payed 3:2 on a natural with the coupon.

My question is how can we maximize our returns on these coupons? What we came up with is one of us bets the coupon on the pass line in craps and the other bets the don't pass. This gives us a 50% return on the coupon, with zero variance. Is this the best way to capitalize on the promo?

On the beyond counting website there is a PDF for using match play coupons, but it doesn't really mention anything about two people using their coupons together. Otherwise if they will pay better than 1:1 odd with the coupon the highest return is on 00 on the roulette wheel (with a lot higher variance). Here is a link to the PDF. https://www.beyondcounting.com/pdfs/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf (Archive copy)

Also did anyone else notice that the new edition of beyond counting is up for pre-order? How long has the new book been finished?

Thanks, any input on the coupons is appreciated.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
You said -- "one of us bets the coupon on the pass line in craps and the other bets the don't pass. This gives us a 50% return on the coupon, with zero variance. Is this the best way to capitalize on the promo?"

That is an egregious non-trivial error.

One roll in every 36 [2.8% of the time] a roll of 6-6 turns up on the "comeout roll".
The Right bettor loses and the wrong bettor pushes.
Ergo, there is no 50% return with zero variance as you stated.

Furthermore, normally casinos will not permit a match play coupon to be used on anything but an even money bet,
otherwise betting a single roulette number "straight-up" at 35 to one odds is preferable.

What you are looking to do is to lock in as close to 1/2 of the face value of the coupons as you can.

The best way to accomplish that is to go to a mini-baccarat table.
There you split your coupon between Banker and Player.
A tie will occur about 10% of the time leaving your bets unresolved.
In this scenario Player will win about 49.3% of the time and Banker will win about 50.7% of the time (ties not withstanding).
When the Banker wins 5% of the winning amount is taken by the house as a "commission".

That is how I would go about doing it.
 
S

Sandy Eggo

Well-Known Member
Hmmm, I've done MatchPlay coupons on PaiGow because a "push" will Push vs. on a BJ table the "push" loses the coupon...Mind you crazy tribal Rules in small houses in random states (CO for eg.).

If I can, and I've had a hot streak for small bonuses on Fortune Pai gow (Flush pays 2:1 and straights pay 4:1 where I get my coupons) I'll see how alert my Dealer is and shoot there. Or just on my regular hand, causing me to up my bet a little to match the coupon.

I won't play them on BJ...rate of loss for me with a coupon just doesn't pay.
 
weavin42

weavin42

Well-Known Member
Sorry about the error. I don't play craps and my roommate neglected to point out this detail.The way he explained it made it seem like we could always get 50% of the coupon no matter what.

Would you check my math on the following EV calculations, I think craps is only marginally worse.

EV for mini-baccarat - neglecting the tie because the coupons are not lost on a tie or push.

Player win:
(-$25*.507)+($50*.493) = $11.98

Banker win:
(-25*.493)+(($50*.05)*.507) = $11.76

EV using the coupon on mini-baccarat
(11.98*.493)+(11.76*.507) = $11.87

Using the coupon on craps

(25*.972)+(-25*.028)= $23.6 for two coupons or $11.80 per coupon.

Thanks again
 
bj bob

bj bob

Well-Known Member
Sandy Eggo said:
If I can, and I've had a hot streak for small bonuses on Fortune Pai gow (Flush pays 2:1 and straights pay 4:1 where I get my coupons)
.
Click to expand...
You have that backwards. A flush pays 4:1 and a straight pays 2:1.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
If you lose the coupon on a push do not use match play coupons for BJ.

About 48% of your hands will lose.
About 9% are pushes.
About 4% will be a blackjack.
About 43% of the hands win.

Incidentally, I have used match play coupons (primarily) in Las Vegas and Atlantic City
for many many yrs. and have never had to relinquish it following a pushed hand.

 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
There are casinos that will pay you 3-2 on the MP. Most won't, but some do.
El Cortez won't. Rampart, Orleans and Gold Coast will. Besides that, you may find a dealer that does, even if he isn't supposed to.
 
S

shadroch

Well-Known Member
Both Ellis Island and the old Speedway( now Luckys) state all match plays are good for one hand, win, lose or draw.
 
G

Guynoire

Well-Known Member
There's more to consider than just the mathematical expected value here. In my experience hedging matchplays at craps tends to really piss off the pit boss/boxman to the point where he may refuse to let you play. Pit bosses flat out hate giving away free money and the thought of any player actually using their brain when playing a game to gain and advantage freaks them out and will definitely draw a lot of heat to your blackjack game. Also, especially if the casino is small you run the risk of prematurely killing the promo by pissing off casino management.

Even if you try to be sneaky and pretend that you and your friend don't know each other it's freakin obvious when 2 people of similar age use a matchplay on contradictory bets. If you really want to hedge a much less obvious way is to hedge with real chips. That way you just look like a typical don't better while your friend is a normal pass line better, it looks more natural if the matchplays are bet on the pass line. Roulette and baccarat dealers tend not to care about hedging but if they are confused they won't hesitate to call the pit boss.

Another option is simply not to hedge and accept the variance. If you're adequately bankrolled for blackjack then a $25 matchplay is nothing compared to normal variance.
 
R

run2w8s

New Member
At Ameristar in St. Louis Missouri the Banker bet in Mini Baccarat appears to be the way to play a matchplay. They only charge 1/2 the commission I expected. I play $10 in chips and a $10 matchplay coupon, a win on banker pays $19.50. So it appears the 5% commission is only charged on the $10 won by the chips, not the $10 won with the matchplay. Let me know if I'm missing something here.
 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
That is excellent!

At half commission YOU have a small advantage over the house,

ergo, it MUST be the best choice.


 
FLASH1296

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
That is excellent!

At half commission YOU have a small advantage over the house,

ergo, it MUST be the best choice.


 
C

callipygian

Well-Known Member
Guynoire said:
In my experience hedging matchplays at craps tends to really piss off the pit boss/boxman ... you run the risk of prematurely killing the promo by pissing off casino management.
Click to expand...
Grosjean says as much in the last few pages of Beyond Coupons.

"Hedge bets lower the overall expectation, but lock bets can be useful. ... In general, I do not recommend hedge bets when playing a single coupon. Live hedge bets lower our overall expectation, and they can even bring heat. The irony is that casinos send out coupons in order to entice players into making other live bets at a disadvantage. When a coupon player makes hedge bets, that's exactly what he's doing!"
 
E

ExhibitCAA

Well-Known Member
Hedging coupons

weavin42, Exhibit CAA has an updated version of the coupons paper. In particular, hedging coupons is discussed on p. 193 for minibaccarat, craps, etc. Good luck!
 
KOLAN

KOLAN

Well-Known Member
weavin42 said:
At a local casino they are having a special promo where if you play for two hours, any game, you can receive two match play coupons worth $25 each. My roommate and I play enough poker and AP blackjack to get two coupons every day that we go to the casino. I'm pretty sure the coupons only pay 1:1 odds but both of us swear to being payed 3:2 on a natural with the coupon.

My question is how can we maximize our returns on these coupons? What we came up with is one of us bets the coupon on the pass line in craps and the other bets the don't pass. This gives us a 50% return on the coupon, with zero variance. Is this the best way to capitalize on the promo?

On the beyond counting website there is a PDF for using match play coupons, but it doesn't really mention anything about two people using their coupons together. Otherwise if they will pay better than 1:1 odd with the coupon the highest return is on 00 on the roulette wheel (with a lot higher variance). Here is a link to the PDF. https://www.beyondcounting.com/pdfs/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf (Archive copy)

Also did anyone else notice that the new edition of beyond counting is up for pre-order? How long has the new book been finished?

Thanks, any input on the coupons is appreciated.
Click to expand...
bet 25 cupons for red and bet 25 for black
 
moo321

moo321

Well-Known Member
When doing matchplay coupons, we WANT variance. So bet numbers in roulette, sidebets in carny games, or field bets in craps. House advantage matter very little compared to the variance.

Anyone who has done sticky bonuses at online casinos will recognize the strategies.
 
R

run2w8s

New Member
run2w8s said:
At Ameristar in St. Louis Missouri the Banker bet in Mini Baccarat appears to be the way to play a matchplay. They only charge 1/2 the commission I expected. I play $10 in chips and a $10 matchplay coupon, a win on banker pays $19.50. So it appears the 5% commission is only charged on the $10 won by the chips, not the $10 won with the matchplay. Let me know if I'm missing something here.
Click to expand...
You can bet $15 in chips with the $10 match play. Since they can't charge you a 75 cent commission (they don't give/take quarters) on the $15 bet, you only pay a 50 cent commision if you leave after the win. They put a 25 cent "marker" on your playing spot to signify you "owe" them 25 cents, but since you get up and leave, they never collect it from you.
 
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