Misdeal! Now what?

[Canceler]

The dealer dealt herself the cut card as her first card, and was half done dealing us our second cards when she realized her mistake. So, a misdeal. I wound up with 7,3 vs. 9, and a chance to pull my bet back. Which I did.

Now I see that playing the hand (doubling) has a positive expected value of 0.145777, so it looks like I should have played the hand. Maybe we should play any hand that has +EV. If this is true, is there any easy way to determine whether to play the hand or not, short of memorizing all the +EV hands?

I realize this situation comes up so seldom that it's almost not worth talking about, but I'm still interested to know. Thanks!

 

[ScottH]

I don't think there is any real method to determine if your hand is +EV besides just knowing your odds. If you know basic strategy, and it says double as the best option, obviously the hand is +EV.

But like you said, this isn't going to happen often enough to worry about knowing which hands have +EV. Just know your basic strategy.

 

[KenSmith]

I could relate to this situation, because it is one that all of us find ourselves faced with occasionally. In fact, after reading your message I thought it would make good fodder for an article.

I was hoping to be able to summarize which hands are +EV with a few short rules. After looking for a while, I decided there's no easy trick to use.

Most of the hands are common sense. The best rule I can come up with is this: If you aren't sure you have an edge on the hand, ditch it.

If you're really interested, you can use the Expected Value charts at http://www.bjmath.com (Archive copy) to see which hands are +EV.

 

[Mikeaber]

Similar situation happend to me this past trip to KC. Player next to 3rd base had put out a $5 match play with a red chip. There was some talk between the dealer and pit boss as to the validity (expiration date) on the coupon and some ensuing confusion because the dealer had already started dealing the hand. I was in the middle of the table and when dealing, for some reason the dealer skipped the coupon holder's circle and dealt to 3rd base. Play was again stopped and Boss told the dealer to continue dealing but NOT to the coupon holder. I had a 19 and the dealer had an 7 or 8 I think. Boss gave everyone at the table the chance to pull their bets. I left mine out thinking I had the advantage over the 7 or 8 the dealer was showing. Well, the dealer drew to a 20 and beat me. I still think it was the correct play in that I think I had enough of an advantage to take the risk, but I might be wrong.

 

[tedloc]

Advantage to Player

I had a 19 and the dealer had an 7 or 8 I think. Boss gave everyone at the table the chance to pull their bets. I left mine out thinking I had the advantage over the 7 or 8 the dealer was showing. Well, the dealer drew to a 20 and beat me. I still think it was the correct play in that I think I had enough of an advantage to take the risk, but I might be wrong.

According to everything I have ever heard, the player is a 6/5 favorite with and 11 vs dealer 10. If thats the case, then surely your are a favorite with 19 vs a dealer 7 or 8. There are no cards that can beat you on the next hit. Obviously, the dealer can hit more than once and beat you but I think I would take 19 vs a dealer 7 or 8 on every hand and come out a winner.

 

[21playerBJ]

10 Best Hands

This isn't really the answer to your +EV question, but never ditch these hands against anything because they are the 10 most profitable hands that we can be dealt. In order from MOST profitable to 10th most profitable.

A, 10
A, 9
10, 10
A, 8
10, 9
11 (ie 9.2; 8,3; 7,4; and 6,5)
A, A
10 (ie 8,2; 7,3; 6,4; and 5,5 [since it is not recommended to split 5's, they are totaled as a 10])
9, 9
A, 7

Thanks to Ken's friends, Henry Tamburin et all, over at BJI (whom Ken writes for in their monthly BJI newsletter) for putting together this list. Although it may seem somewhat obvious, these are the hands that really get us our +EV. And these should always be played to their optimum (ie splitting the Aces as you are supposed to, etc., etc., etc.) without any deviation.

Hope this helps and good luck pushing the EV to the max.

 

[Canceler]

I've been busy

Thank you all for your replies!

To make things easier to visualize, I used the EV tables to create a BS-style chart. I used the table for 6D, H17, DOA, DAS, since that's the game I play most often. The chart has pluses and minuses, instead of Hs and Ss.

As ScottH said, any proper double down is +EV. I sort of knew that, but didn't think of it at the time. :whip:

And, as Ken said, there is no simple rule to determine if your hand is +EV or not. A lot of it is common sense, though. We generally know if we have good cards, and what the weak dealer upcards are.

Here are some observations I made from the chart:

Hands that are +EV against any dealer upcard: 21, any 19 or 20, 11, 10, and A,A.

Hands that are -EV against any dealer upcard: Hard 12 thru 17. (I knew 17 was weak, but didn't realize how weak.)

Except for hard 12-17, every hand is +EV against a 6.

Any soft hand or pair is +EV against a 4, 5, or 6.

Trivia discovered while doing this: The EV for 18 vs. 7 is almost twice that of 18 vs. 6.

For those that are interested, I've attached the chart as a zipped Excel file.