Most Common Mistake?
- Thread starter dangeroso
- Start date
I'm very dubious about this.Where did you get this number? I can't see anyway this can be correct.A $100 bet pays $150,or $100 at even money.No amount of hands played will change that.If the Dealer has an Ace,there are 13 possible cards to make his hand. Taking even money every time on a $100 bet results in you winning $1300. Not taking even money gives you nine wins for $1350,and four pushs.Thats a far cry from one or two cents a bet.Two cents a bet on 13 $100 bets would be twenty-six cents,not $50
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
No, you're not wrong. You're talking about the absolute cost of taking even money at the time you are presented with that situation. I'm talking about the conditional cost of taking it in the grand scheme of playing all hands of BJ, in other words taking into account the frequency that you are actually presented with the situation.
So, if you play 1000 hands of regular old BJ at $100/hand, and wager $100,000 over that time, taking even money every time you were presented with the situation would only cost you an extra $13-$14 compared to if you had properly never accepted it.
From that point of view, it might even have potential as a "camo" play.
So, if you play 1000 hands of regular old BJ at $100/hand, and wager $100,000 over that time, taking even money every time you were presented with the situation would only cost you an extra $13-$14 compared to if you had properly never accepted it.
From that point of view, it might even have potential as a "camo" play.
The book by Ian Anderson Burning the Tables in Las Vegas dicusses several plays, inwhich several are correct indices plays when the count is high, that you play all the time as cover, giving up very little. These include standing on 16 against dealer 10, doubling down on 10 against dealer ten, taking insurance when you have blackjack, and several others. Please note that all of Ian Anderson play is at Black and Purple Chip level, where cover is critical to survival.
Interesting thread - Poppies & Winning AP'a or Losing AP's
All comments concerning poppies coming from educated blackjack players. Frankie's comments also relate to bs player's with a pretty good idea of counting but not capable for many various reasons.
Shamrock defined the difference in many cases of two very sharp bj players with one winner. But he would have to have known this person for a certain period of time observing his play.
How long do you believe poppies remain poppies if they visit the casino's annually? Always... 100%?
Different animal...Recently W. VA opened their BJ's Tables. 25 BJ Tables. (Mountaineer) I waited for a few weeks prior to going. (45 mins.) The only reason I waited was I happened to meet a kid going to a West Virginia community college learning how to deal a month prior to the opening. I was able to find out one of the names of a Pit Boss they he would be working with at times. I found out through various research aspects of his bio that I was intereted in to possibly create value.
After research, I made a wager with a good blackjack player from my home town. I bet him I could get a free room within a week. Five 4 hour sessions playing minimum green. Walked floor first two trips playing BS single green and mostly following actions of this various Pit Boss. I see he gets into a red face discussion with a player and he's unfair in his decision. I could see in the faces of other suits that he was wrong. He finally realizes it. I waited for a third base seat he was watching and buy in for $200. He punches me in and I ask him for an ashtray. When he comes back I told him he looks familiar. I then asked if he ever worked in LV. He said, yes the Golden Nugget. I then told him my wife was a dealer during that time. . After I told him I lost her to cancer, he was hooked. I get another $200 buy that I push the entire $200 in the circle. First hand out of shoe and lose. Now have $400 invested in guy. I called him over and said Good-By nice meeting you. Knowing he now knows I was fortunate in having her a large insurance policy I told him my mother was coming to town Sunday night and I don't have a place for her to stay. I asked him if he could possibly help me out in getting a discounted room at the casino. Mother's arriving tonight with her dear Son putting her to bed in luxury while I collect my bet and enjoy a relaxing session in their high roller room. I now have his phone number and he told me to call him when I planned staying over at the casino and he'll take care of it.
Since I'm now a local I assure I'll know as much if not more about them then they do about me. Hoping to turn it into a IGOUGO thing. I have one value in life. I would never take anything off someone I had more than.
Life is too short to wait. Cheers, Jim
P.S. AP's are correct when they say, "Practice, Practice, Practice." Research, Research, Research has made my life very comfortable.
All comments concerning poppies coming from educated blackjack players. Frankie's comments also relate to bs player's with a pretty good idea of counting but not capable for many various reasons.
Shamrock defined the difference in many cases of two very sharp bj players with one winner. But he would have to have known this person for a certain period of time observing his play.
How long do you believe poppies remain poppies if they visit the casino's annually? Always... 100%?
Different animal...Recently W. VA opened their BJ's Tables. 25 BJ Tables. (Mountaineer) I waited for a few weeks prior to going. (45 mins.) The only reason I waited was I happened to meet a kid going to a West Virginia community college learning how to deal a month prior to the opening. I was able to find out one of the names of a Pit Boss they he would be working with at times. I found out through various research aspects of his bio that I was intereted in to possibly create value.
After research, I made a wager with a good blackjack player from my home town. I bet him I could get a free room within a week. Five 4 hour sessions playing minimum green. Walked floor first two trips playing BS single green and mostly following actions of this various Pit Boss. I see he gets into a red face discussion with a player and he's unfair in his decision. I could see in the faces of other suits that he was wrong. He finally realizes it. I waited for a third base seat he was watching and buy in for $200. He punches me in and I ask him for an ashtray. When he comes back I told him he looks familiar. I then asked if he ever worked in LV. He said, yes the Golden Nugget. I then told him my wife was a dealer during that time. . After I told him I lost her to cancer, he was hooked. I get another $200 buy that I push the entire $200 in the circle. First hand out of shoe and lose. Now have $400 invested in guy. I called him over and said Good-By nice meeting you. Knowing he now knows I was fortunate in having her a large insurance policy I told him my mother was coming to town Sunday night and I don't have a place for her to stay. I asked him if he could possibly help me out in getting a discounted room at the casino. Mother's arriving tonight with her dear Son putting her to bed in luxury while I collect my bet and enjoy a relaxing session in their high roller room. I now have his phone number and he told me to call him when I planned staying over at the casino and he'll take care of it.
Since I'm now a local I assure I'll know as much if not more about them then they do about me. Hoping to turn it into a IGOUGO thing. I have one value in life. I would never take anything off someone I had more than.
Life is too short to wait. Cheers, Jim
P.S. AP's are correct when they say, "Practice, Practice, Practice." Research, Research, Research has made my life very comfortable.
Under split pairs
I think 6's are the most under split pair when it is correct to do so. I see people split 10's but not that often so I don't think that it is common mistake.
Pairs of 9's are undersplit as well and this is one of the most profitable splits of all. People sometimes say to me I don't want to split my 9's against a 5 and i say yeah you do you will have 2 hands that will win more often than your 1 hand of 18!
I think 6's are the most under split pair when it is correct to do so. I see people split 10's but not that often so I don't think that it is common mistake.
Pairs of 9's are undersplit as well and this is one of the most profitable splits of all. People sometimes say to me I don't want to split my 9's against a 5 and i say yeah you do you will have 2 hands that will win more often than your 1 hand of 18!
6's vs 9's
Have to disagree here. 9's are the most undersplit pair. Nines should be split 7 of 13 times vs 2-6,8, &9, and a vast number of people will never break up that 18 and split them against anything at all.
Though 6's are undersplit, they only should be split 5 of 13 times and even some of the worst players will still split them against 4-6 but feat splitting them against a 2 or 3. So I think the average player misses his opportunity to split 9's something like three times as often as his opportunity to split 6's.
Comment on dealer decorum:
Cardcounter; as a dealer you should have learned by now that giving people correct advice (like, "yes you should split those 9's") will often get you into trouble with players when the good advice does not work. If I was you, I would always throw in a disclaimer like, "this is what the book says but nothing works all the time." Also you need to determine just what kind of personality you are dealing with because with some folks it is best to just say nothing.
ihate17
Have to disagree here. 9's are the most undersplit pair. Nines should be split 7 of 13 times vs 2-6,8, &9, and a vast number of people will never break up that 18 and split them against anything at all.
Though 6's are undersplit, they only should be split 5 of 13 times and even some of the worst players will still split them against 4-6 but feat splitting them against a 2 or 3. So I think the average player misses his opportunity to split 9's something like three times as often as his opportunity to split 6's.
Comment on dealer decorum:
Cardcounter; as a dealer you should have learned by now that giving people correct advice (like, "yes you should split those 9's") will often get you into trouble with players when the good advice does not work. If I was you, I would always throw in a disclaimer like, "this is what the book says but nothing works all the time." Also you need to determine just what kind of personality you are dealing with because with some folks it is best to just say nothing.
ihate17
You know, a while back, I see the young guy debating a split, and the annoying girlfriend is pushing to make a decision he doesn't want to make. I and dealer remain silent. He ends up playing his way, busting, and leaving the table.
I say to the dealer "you know, I was going to suggest he split, but no way I was going to side with the girlfriend on that one!" Dealer responds, "how do you think I've managed to keep this job for this long?"
I say to the dealer "you know, I was going to suggest he split, but no way I was going to side with the girlfriend on that one!" Dealer responds, "how do you think I've managed to keep this job for this long?"
One more dealer advice comment
I have very often witnessed dealers giving players wrong advice. If they do not know the correct answer they should not make one up but many do. I see this most often in places where the dealers go for their own tokes and their thought pattern is pretty easy to understand.
Tell the player nothing and win or lose you get no toke most likely.
Tell the player something and if he loses you still get nothing.
Tell the player something and if he happens to win, you just might get a toke.
Since most dealers do not know basic strategy, what they know is what they have learned from many of the players at their tables over time. Since these players play poorly, the advice from an average dealer will also be poor.
Unfortunately, many pits are no better. A pretty woman sitting next to me (playing $50 per hand and having no idea what she was doing), get 2,2 vs a dealer 5 and asks the woman pit if she should split. The pit says, "Oh no, splitting 2's is one of the worst things you can do on the table."
I break my silence rule, she was a knockout, and say, "when the dealer has a 5 or 6, you want to get more money on the table if possible, so split." She splits, gets a double and wins 3 bets. I get a smile and a hand squeeze but after hubby showed up, I knew that was it for me.
ihate17
I have very often witnessed dealers giving players wrong advice. If they do not know the correct answer they should not make one up but many do. I see this most often in places where the dealers go for their own tokes and their thought pattern is pretty easy to understand.
Tell the player nothing and win or lose you get no toke most likely.
Tell the player something and if he loses you still get nothing.
Tell the player something and if he happens to win, you just might get a toke.
Since most dealers do not know basic strategy, what they know is what they have learned from many of the players at their tables over time. Since these players play poorly, the advice from an average dealer will also be poor.
Unfortunately, many pits are no better. A pretty woman sitting next to me (playing $50 per hand and having no idea what she was doing), get 2,2 vs a dealer 5 and asks the woman pit if she should split. The pit says, "Oh no, splitting 2's is one of the worst things you can do on the table."
I break my silence rule, she was a knockout, and say, "when the dealer has a 5 or 6, you want to get more money on the table if possible, so split." She splits, gets a double and wins 3 bets. I get a smile and a hand squeeze but after hubby showed up, I knew that was it for me.
ihate17
Of course alot of the time he should refuse lol.
Then what do you do? Offer incentive like, perhaps, split winnings with him on your bet if he wins? How low would you go? Give him 75% of your win on your bet if he wins? 99% - maybe even then still +EV for you? Just accept his decision immediately possibly giving up an advanatge play?
Just BS'ing lol.
Then what do you do? Offer incentive like, perhaps, split winnings with him on your bet if he wins? How low would you go? Give him 75% of your win on your bet if he wins? 99% - maybe even then still +EV for you? Just accept his decision immediately possibly giving up an advanatge play?
Just BS'ing lol.
First of all, I think I should have reversed my words of "conditional" and "absolute" but you got the idea anyway lol.
My numbers were based on 4 decks just because I happened to pick that for no good reason at all. So, player will be dealt BJ 2*(16/208*64/207) or 4.7566% of the time. Once you have a BJ, dealer will have an Ace up 15/206 of the time or 7.28% of the time. Multiplying the 2, you will be presented with an "even money" opportunity ~346 times in 100,000 hands.
Then I assumed an infinite deck for the extra amount lost by accepting the "even money" bet just because I'm lazy. And I don't think it will make alot of diff anyway. Naturally you will always win one unit if you always accept "even money". If you always refuse it, 4/13 of the time he will have BJ and you win nothing. 9/13 of the time you win 1.5 units or 1.0386415, or an extra 1/26 of your bet, about 4% more, compared to even money.
So your conditional cost at the time you accept even money is 4%. Your absolute cost is that * the frequency it occurs.
So that's where my numbers came from.
Sometimes it makes me wonder just a little bit why so many sometimes seem so willing to paint all mistakes equally and therefore perhaps somewhat hastily label anyone making any mistake a "ploppy" apparently without regard for the actual cost of the mistake in the grand scheme of things.
If one can't tell a close play from a truly bonehead play, maybe one is even more of a ploppy than a ploppy.
Like some seem to think always standing on 16 vs 10 is no problem because they know it's a close play at the time you get the hand. They don't seem to know it's twice as costly as always accepting even money if you always do both.
For instance, I'm pretty sure alot of people here, if playing at the same table, would quickly dismiss Ian Anderson as a complete idiot and report back here how you wouldn't believe how stupid this guy was while betting big to boot
No big deal - anyone here actually consistently and intentionally make "camo" plays perhaps with an eye toward as an investment in longevity?
My numbers were based on 4 decks just because I happened to pick that for no good reason at all. So, player will be dealt BJ 2*(16/208*64/207) or 4.7566% of the time. Once you have a BJ, dealer will have an Ace up 15/206 of the time or 7.28% of the time. Multiplying the 2, you will be presented with an "even money" opportunity ~346 times in 100,000 hands.
Then I assumed an infinite deck for the extra amount lost by accepting the "even money" bet just because I'm lazy. And I don't think it will make alot of diff anyway. Naturally you will always win one unit if you always accept "even money". If you always refuse it, 4/13 of the time he will have BJ and you win nothing. 9/13 of the time you win 1.5 units or 1.0386415, or an extra 1/26 of your bet, about 4% more, compared to even money.
So your conditional cost at the time you accept even money is 4%. Your absolute cost is that * the frequency it occurs.
So that's where my numbers came from.
Sometimes it makes me wonder just a little bit why so many sometimes seem so willing to paint all mistakes equally and therefore perhaps somewhat hastily label anyone making any mistake a "ploppy" apparently without regard for the actual cost of the mistake in the grand scheme of things.
If one can't tell a close play from a truly bonehead play, maybe one is even more of a ploppy than a ploppy.
Like some seem to think always standing on 16 vs 10 is no problem because they know it's a close play at the time you get the hand. They don't seem to know it's twice as costly as always accepting even money if you always do both.
For instance, I'm pretty sure alot of people here, if playing at the same table, would quickly dismiss Ian Anderson as a complete idiot and report back here how you wouldn't believe how stupid this guy was while betting big to boot
No big deal - anyone here actually consistently and intentionally make "camo" plays perhaps with an eye toward as an investment in longevity?
Some are already mentioned, such as
Standing stiffs vs 7+
Standing A7 vs 3-6 (should be doubling)
Standing A7 vs 9+ (should be hitting)
Standing 12 vs 2 or 3
In addition......
Surrendering 14
Not splitting 99 appropriately
Standing 66 vs 2-6
Not doubling 11 vs 7+
Not doubling 10 vs 7-9
Doubling 7/8 vs 5, 6
Doubling 9 vs 2, 7
Standing stiffs vs 7+
Standing A7 vs 3-6 (should be doubling)
Standing A7 vs 9+ (should be hitting)
Standing 12 vs 2 or 3
In addition......
Surrendering 14
Not splitting 99 appropriately
Standing 66 vs 2-6
Not doubling 11 vs 7+
Not doubling 10 vs 7-9
Doubling 7/8 vs 5, 6
Doubling 9 vs 2, 7