Following my comments on Ken's ebook about blackjack tournaments, here are my own ideas in addition to those principles Ken has written. I've divided them into 7 individual items.
Disclaimer: So far I've only read Ken's ebook in this subject so am not sure if these ideas have already been expressed by other authors. Also, some ideas may just have been expressed in a better way (not necessarily unique).
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Principle 1
Putting SINGLE bet into the first priority. That is, always consider a SINGLE bet win/loss ahead of anything else (e.g. double, split, push, blackjack, etc.)
Principle 2
A SINGLE bet win-loss swing is more probable than your opponent's double/split win. (*Note: I am in Australia and it is only allowed to double on 9, 10 and 11 in my local casino's blackjack tounaments)
Principle 3
If you are in the lead and must bet first, depending on by how much you lead, your bet should be different. Think in the following priority order (bet range $5-$500):
1) Be a lock: if you have $1600 and your opponent has $500, simply bet min $5 (you take both the high and the low, you cover his possible double/split/blackjack win swing when you lose).
2) High, low and swing: if you have $1700 and your opponent has $1100, simply bet min $5 (you take both the high and the low, while preventing a single bet swing (Note: do not bet more than $150 or more here to cover your opponent’s blackjack win or double/split win, because if you do so you will risk a single bet swing by your opponent, which is more possible than a blackjack or double/split win).
3) High (cover double/split win) and low: If you have $1500 and your opponent has $1000, what should you bet? Bet $505, which covers his double, split and blackjack win while retaining both the high and the low. If you bet $510, you will give up the low if he bets $5.
4) High (cover blackjack win) and low:
a) If you have $1000 and your opponent has $500, you can no longer prevent a single bet swing as he will surely bet max. In this case, your best bet is $255: whatever your opponent bets, you guarantee you have both the high (even prevent his blackjack win) and the low. And notice: it is impossible for him to double or split because he only has $500!
b) If you have $1400, and your opponent has $1000, and you bet first (bet range $5-$500). You should bet $400 here to secure the high and the low, while covering his blackjack win possibility. If you bet $410, your opponent can bet $5 to take the low. If you bet $95, your opponent can bet $500 to take the high. If you bet $605 to cover his double/split opportunity, you will, again, lose the low.
Note: In these situations we always ignore a push situation, as it is less likely and will make things complicated. The key issue here is whether or not BR1 is capable of preventing a win-loss swing (he loses while BR2 wins). If not, the best play for BR1 is always covering BR2’s double/split win if he can afford it, while taking both the high and the low.
On the other hand, whenever you can prevent a win-loss swing, do it even at the cost of not being able to cover your opponent’s double/split win, which is less probable. (Your opponent has $500 and bet $250, and you have $800, now you should bet $45 to be a lock, ignoring his double/split/blackjack possibility.)
Principle 4
Highest percentage play: most probable outcomes & extra ways to win
1) Most probable outcomes
You are BR1 with $650 and BR2 has $600. BR2 bets ahead of you and places $300. What should you bet?
Obviously it is wise to simply match his bet by betting $345 to have both the high and the low. But BR2 can double or split to reach $1200, or he can get a blackjack and reach $1050. Should you bet $405-$555 to cover those possibilities? Of course not. If you do, you will sacrifice the pure low! Securing both the high and the low is better than covering the opponent’s double/split win but only taking the high.
2) Extra ways to win
You have $800, and the leader has $1150 and bets $10. You should bet $400 here, which gives you four ways to win: single win, double, split and Blackjack. If you bet maximum $500, you can not split so you only have three ways to win.
Principle 5
If you are in the lead and bet last, match the majority of your opponents’ bet (take both the high and the low). If it’s a toss-up (some bet big and some bet small), take the high.
If you are trailing and bet last, bet opposite the leaders (play for a swing)
Principle 6
If you are the leader and must bet first, and multiple players are trailing you by a very small margin, your best bet is taking the high so that you only need to win your hand to advance. If you take the low, then you need all other players to lose to advance. If you place a medium sized bet, it is even harder to advance because if some players take the high while others take the low, the only way you can advance is that you win and everyone else loses.
Principle 7
If you are several max bets behind and need more hands to improve your chance of catching up, and you are taking the low by betting small, then you should stand on any total to save more cards for you to play subsequently. On the other hand, if you are several max bets ahead and betting small, you’d better take as many cards as possible to help finishing the shoe more quickly.
Disclaimer: So far I've only read Ken's ebook in this subject so am not sure if these ideas have already been expressed by other authors. Also, some ideas may just have been expressed in a better way (not necessarily unique).
--------------------------------------------------------
Principle 1
Putting SINGLE bet into the first priority. That is, always consider a SINGLE bet win/loss ahead of anything else (e.g. double, split, push, blackjack, etc.)
Principle 2
A SINGLE bet win-loss swing is more probable than your opponent's double/split win. (*Note: I am in Australia and it is only allowed to double on 9, 10 and 11 in my local casino's blackjack tounaments)
Principle 3
If you are in the lead and must bet first, depending on by how much you lead, your bet should be different. Think in the following priority order (bet range $5-$500):
1) Be a lock: if you have $1600 and your opponent has $500, simply bet min $5 (you take both the high and the low, you cover his possible double/split/blackjack win swing when you lose).
2) High, low and swing: if you have $1700 and your opponent has $1100, simply bet min $5 (you take both the high and the low, while preventing a single bet swing (Note: do not bet more than $150 or more here to cover your opponent’s blackjack win or double/split win, because if you do so you will risk a single bet swing by your opponent, which is more possible than a blackjack or double/split win).
3) High (cover double/split win) and low: If you have $1500 and your opponent has $1000, what should you bet? Bet $505, which covers his double, split and blackjack win while retaining both the high and the low. If you bet $510, you will give up the low if he bets $5.
4) High (cover blackjack win) and low:
a) If you have $1000 and your opponent has $500, you can no longer prevent a single bet swing as he will surely bet max. In this case, your best bet is $255: whatever your opponent bets, you guarantee you have both the high (even prevent his blackjack win) and the low. And notice: it is impossible for him to double or split because he only has $500!
b) If you have $1400, and your opponent has $1000, and you bet first (bet range $5-$500). You should bet $400 here to secure the high and the low, while covering his blackjack win possibility. If you bet $410, your opponent can bet $5 to take the low. If you bet $95, your opponent can bet $500 to take the high. If you bet $605 to cover his double/split opportunity, you will, again, lose the low.
Note: In these situations we always ignore a push situation, as it is less likely and will make things complicated. The key issue here is whether or not BR1 is capable of preventing a win-loss swing (he loses while BR2 wins). If not, the best play for BR1 is always covering BR2’s double/split win if he can afford it, while taking both the high and the low.
On the other hand, whenever you can prevent a win-loss swing, do it even at the cost of not being able to cover your opponent’s double/split win, which is less probable. (Your opponent has $500 and bet $250, and you have $800, now you should bet $45 to be a lock, ignoring his double/split/blackjack possibility.)
Principle 4
Highest percentage play: most probable outcomes & extra ways to win
1) Most probable outcomes
You are BR1 with $650 and BR2 has $600. BR2 bets ahead of you and places $300. What should you bet?
Obviously it is wise to simply match his bet by betting $345 to have both the high and the low. But BR2 can double or split to reach $1200, or he can get a blackjack and reach $1050. Should you bet $405-$555 to cover those possibilities? Of course not. If you do, you will sacrifice the pure low! Securing both the high and the low is better than covering the opponent’s double/split win but only taking the high.
2) Extra ways to win
You have $800, and the leader has $1150 and bets $10. You should bet $400 here, which gives you four ways to win: single win, double, split and Blackjack. If you bet maximum $500, you can not split so you only have three ways to win.
Principle 5
If you are in the lead and bet last, match the majority of your opponents’ bet (take both the high and the low). If it’s a toss-up (some bet big and some bet small), take the high.
If you are trailing and bet last, bet opposite the leaders (play for a swing)
Principle 6
If you are the leader and must bet first, and multiple players are trailing you by a very small margin, your best bet is taking the high so that you only need to win your hand to advance. If you take the low, then you need all other players to lose to advance. If you place a medium sized bet, it is even harder to advance because if some players take the high while others take the low, the only way you can advance is that you win and everyone else loses.
Principle 7
If you are several max bets behind and need more hands to improve your chance of catching up, and you are taking the low by betting small, then you should stand on any total to save more cards for you to play subsequently. On the other hand, if you are several max bets ahead and betting small, you’d better take as many cards as possible to help finishing the shoe more quickly.
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