my first 125 hours of counting

[Bondy3]

When I first went to the casino to count I had a really good time, I started off not very good but after a couple shoes I was to the point were I wasn't dropping the count and after about 20 hours of counting I was to the point were I could hold a conversation with the people around me and/or the dealer and not loose the count. Counting cards is really fun and for the first few trips it was really profitable. I came to the conclusion that I prefer DD over shoe games because shoe games have a lot of waiting around for the count to increase and in DD games the wait between high counts is significantly less.

In terms of luck, I started off very well, my first 8 sessions were almost all wins and after playing 40 hours I was up 380 units. I stayed around 380 units profit till I hit the 80 hour mark, then I had what people call "bad variance" but to me it was a nightmare, I had 9 loosing sessions in a row, then 2 break even sessions and then 2 more loosing sessions. I went from +380 units to negative in 25 hours of play. My losses haven't really stopped and as of now I'm currently at -192 units ($10 units) I have been spreading 1:10 on DD for the majority of my time playing BJ.

I thought that maybe there was something wrong with my play, but I sat down and re-made the basic strategy table perfectly from memory and I know my I-18 perfectly as well. I can also count down a deck of cards in under 25 seconds without mistakes consistently.

I have been using the Hi-opt I counting system with an Aces Side count, I was originally going to learn a level II count but I figure the benefits of doing such is minimal and its a lot easier to mess up if I do that.

I feel that I have mastered counting to an extent, but after 125 hours being down $1,920 really stings. I believe in counting and I believe counting cards works, but i'm not sure if I will ever hit the long run positive EV that I keep promising myself is out there. After 4 months my outcome doesn't look to good.

Any Advice?

 

[NightStalker]

just hang around

don't play bad double deck games with 50% pen. And in case you don't have much good games around, use higher spread like 10-150...
Try games with better score(surrender, pen and s17) and keep your game tight..

 

[Bondy3]

don't play bad double deck games with 50% pen. And in case you don't have much good games around, use higher spread like 10-150...
Try games with better score(surrender, pen and s17) and keep your game tight..

even if Im not playing a "good game" I still should have a positive EV, even if the EV is less (0.4% HE game should not crush me even if I wasn't counting and I was just using BS I should loose slower than I am)

 

[BMDD]

Sorry to hear about the bad variance, but this doesn't sound to far from normal. Just ran a quick sim. for 2D DAS.. N0 is more than triple for 50% pen compared to 75%. If you are playing a poorly cut double deck game and it is all that's available try to take more bathroom/phone calls/whatever breaks during bad counts. As Nightstalker mentioned you may want to increase your spread for a better SCORE if your game isn't being closely scrutinized.

 

[Bondy3]

Sorry to hear about the bad variance, but this doesn't sound to far from normal. Just ran a quick sim. for 2D DAS.. N0 is more than triple for 50% pen compared to 75%. If you are playing a poorly cut double deck game and it is all that's available try to take more bathroom/phone calls/whatever breaks during bad counts. As Nightstalker mentioned you may want to increase your spread for a better SCORE if your game isn't being closely scrutinized.

Whats N0?

If I increase my spread to 1:15 how will that effect me?

is a 1:10 spread on a poorly cut DD game unbeatable?

 

[BMDD]

N0(someone correct me if I'm wrong, though I believe this is what I read in a recent thread)is the point at which you are 85% likely to be ahead(measured in # of hands.)

A 1-10 spread will definately beat 50% pen., but the variance will be huge.

My sim. shows-Win Rate: $20.85
Hourly SD: $434.83

Even with a $10,000 bankroll you are 11% likely to lose it all.

You are 64.3% likely to be down $2000 at some point.

Futhermore, this data assumes optimum bets using Hi-Opt I w/sweet 16(I believe this is just I18 without splitting 10's)


I would strongly suggest investing in some simulation software. CVBJ/CVCX is sold as a package and will easily pay for itself.

 

[creeping panther]

Bondy

When I first went to the casino to count I had a really good time, I started off not very good but after a couple shoes I was to the point were I wasn't dropping the count and after about 20 hours of counting I was to the point were I could hold a conversation with the people around me and/or the dealer and not loose the count. Counting cards is really fun and for the first few trips it was really profitable. I came to the conclusion that I prefer DD over shoe games because shoe games have a lot of waiting around for the count to increase and in DD games the wait between high counts is significantly less.

In terms of luck, I started off very well, my first 8 sessions were almost all wins and after playing 40 hours I was up 380 units. I stayed around 380 units profit till I hit the 80 hour mark, then I had what people call "bad variance" but to me it was a nightmare, I had 9 loosing sessions in a row, then 2 break even sessions and then 2 more loosing sessions. I went from +380 units to negative in 25 hours of play. My losses haven't really stopped and as of now I'm currently at -192 units ($10 units) I have been spreading 1:10 on DD for the majority of my time playing BJ.

I thought that maybe there was something wrong with my play, but I sat down and re-made the basic strategy table perfectly from memory and I know my I-18 perfectly as well. I can also count down a deck of cards in under 25 seconds without mistakes consistently.

I have been using the Hi-opt I counting system with an Aces Side count, I was originally going to learn a level II count but I figure the benefits of doing such is minimal and its a lot easier to mess up if I do that.

I feel that I have mastered counting to an extent, but after 125 hours being down $1,920 really stings. I believe in counting and I believe counting cards works, but i'm not sure if I will ever hit the long run positive EV that I keep promising myself is out there. After 4 months my outcome doesn't look to good.

Any Advice?

Bondy,

My advice,,,you should have invested in Ford a year ago.

I believe it may be the game you are playing or your skillz are lacking. It is very hard to win counting only so you really need a fine game, and I am not going to spell out what a fine game is here.

50% pen and lacking other things is a recipe for disaster. Forget about the BS about spreading 1-15 to beat it.

If you don't have a fine game and you are counting only,,,just don't play!

CP

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

You mentioned that you should not be getting crushed at a game with only a 0.4% house edge, even if you were simply a basic strategy player, and you're partly correct. What you need to take into account is the fact that card counting increases the volatility of your results because you change the amount you bet on each hand. You could play 100 hands where the count didn't call for an increase in betting until the last couple of rounds, which all called for max bets (an absurd scenario, but you get the point)—even if the results were completely per expectation on the min bet hands, if your max bet hand results varied from expectation at all, it will have a dramatic effect on your overall results. So a BS player would probably still not get crushed, even if they were on a really bad streak, but a counter could (and frequently does) experience a result like yours after only a small period of time (125 hours).

The significance of having a much higher N0 is that you must play that many more hands before your results are very likely to be close to your actual expectation. That means that a 50% DD game with a high N0 will still be profitable in the long run, but you must play many more hands before it becomes worth it. 125 hours is worth far less at a game with a 20K N0 than a game with a 14K N0. I know you get bored playing shoes (like everyone else), but the 6D 75% games with LS are much better than the .4% HA DD games with 50% pen. Stick with the few 75% DD games that are around and hit the shoes, which are plentiful. Good luck.

 

[Bondy3]

You mentioned that you should not be getting crushed at a game with only a 0.4% house edge, even if you were simply a basic strategy player, and you're partly correct. What you need to take into account is the fact that card counting increases the volatility of your results because you change the amount you bet on each hand. You could play 100 hands where the count didn't call for an increase in betting until the last couple of rounds, which all called for max bets (an absurd scenario, but you get the point)—even if the results were completely per expectation on the min bet hands, if your max bet hand results varied from expectation at all, it will have a dramatic effect on your overall results. So a BS player would probably still not get crushed, even if they were on a really bad streak, but a counter could (and frequently does) experience a result like yours after only a small period of time (125 hours).

The significance of having a much higher N0 is that you must play that many more hands before your results are very likely to be close to your actual expectation. That means that a 50% DD game with a high N0 will still be profitable in the long run, but you must play many more hands before it becomes worth it. 125 hours is worth far less at a game with a 20K N0 than a game with a 14K N0. I know you get bored playing shoes (like everyone else), but the 6D 75% games with LS are much better than the .4% HA DD games with 50% pen. Stick with the few 75% DD games that are around and hit the shoes, which are plentiful. Good luck.

there are no Shoe games with Surrender around, all the shoe games are 6D or 8D H17, DOA, DAS, 60%-75% pen. HE is 0.8% for that game.

does a 50% DD game really have a 20k N0?

 

[Deathclutch]

there are no Shoe games with Surrender around, all the shoe games are 6D or 8D H17, DOA, DAS, 60%-75% pen. HE is 0.8% for that game.

does a 50% DD game really have a 20k N0?

You were warned about the 50% DD games a while back. Everyoe told you to forget them and you're finding out why. How can you have put in 125 hours in just a couple months and not taken the time to run sims and know things like this? I don't mean to sound rude but it sounds like you've invested a fairly large sum of money but are only half prepared. Don't count for the sake of counting. Find good games. Forget the DD game. Depending on where you play you should be able to do a bit of scouting and fall ass backwards into a better game than that. Don't think of it as wasted time either. By finding a better game you could significantly reduce the amount of time you have to spend on the game to mostly assure yourself of profit.

 

[Bondy3]

You were warned about the 50% DD games a while back. Everyoe told you to forget them and you're finding out why. How can you have put in 125 hours in just a couple months and not taken the time to run sims and know things like this? I don't mean to sound rude but it sounds like you've invested a fairly large sum of money but are only half prepared. Don't count for the sake of counting. Find good games. Forget the DD game. Depending on where you play you should be able to do a bit of scouting and fall ass backwards into a better game than that. Don't think of it as wasted time either. By finding a better game you could significantly reduce the amount of time you have to spend on the game to mostly assure yourself of profit.

I guess I'll move back to shoe games.

 

[NightStalker]

In comparison

50% DD h17,ds is a little better than 65% h17,ds,rsa assuming same spread. I do play 50% DD and probably same place where you do. But my spread is mostly greater than 1-20 and I don't hesitate moving from min to max bet in a round. It has given me bad variance for a long time but in the end, I do came ahead of my expectation. I prefer shoe personally because of less heat.

 

[bj bob]

I have been spreading 1:10 on DD for the majority of my time playing BJ.

... and I know my I-18 perfectly as well.

Any Advice?

Correct me if I've missed something here. but where did the OP ever mention that the DD he was playing was 50% pen? In virtually every casino I've been in, even with 50% pen, there will be dealers who will vary from that, so scout the pits and keep your eyes open.
With that being said, let me make a few observations:
1) A 10:1 spread should make you money in almost any DD game.
2) As mentioned by several previous members your variance is pretty normal.You said yourself that you went from a high of 380 to a low of 192.You didn't seem to get all emotional about the 380 number, so why get ulcers over the 192 number? Get my point?
3) If the DD game you're playing has MDE then back count and Wong in, if not, then Wong out in negative counts. This will help your EV, RoR and significantly lower your N0 among other benefits.If you've never tried Wonging out, then start with a gentle -double digit RC at first to get the hang of it, then you can get more aggressive later.
4) The I-18 is fine for shoe games, but I would suggest adding on another half dozen to your arsenal for DDers, especially negative ones.

 

[Deathclutch]

Correct me if I've missed something here. but where did the OP ever mention that the DD he was playing was 50% pen? In virtually every casino I've been in, even with 50% pen, there will be dealers who will vary from that, so scout the pits and keep your eyes open.
With that being said, let me make a few observations:
1) A 10:1 spread should make you money in almost any DD game.
2) As mentioned by several previous members your variance is pretty normal.You said yourself that you went from a high of 380 to a low of 192.You didn't seem to get all emotional about the 380 number, so why get ulcers over the 192 number? Get my point?
3) If the DD game you're playing has MDE then back count and Wong in, if not, then Wong out in negative counts. This will help your EV, RoR and significantly lower your N0 among other benefits.If you've never tried Wonging out, then start with a gentle -double digit RC at first to get the hang of it, then you can get more aggressive later.
4) The I-18 is fine for shoe games, but I would suggest adding on another half dozen to your arsenal for DDers, especially negative ones.

He has mentioned on multiple other occasions that he's playing 50% pen DD, that's how we all knew.

 

[bj bob]

He has mentioned on multiple other occasions that he's playing 50% pen DD, that's how we all knew.

Ah ha!

 

[Bondy3]

Correct me if I've missed something here. but where did the OP ever mention that the DD he was playing was 50% pen? In virtually every casino I've been in, even with 50% pen, there will be dealers who will vary from that, so scout the pits and keep your eyes open.
With that being said, let me make a few observations:
1) A 10:1 spread should make you money in almost any DD game.
2) As mentioned by several previous members your variance is pretty normal.You said yourself that you went from a high of 380 to a low of 192.You didn't seem to get all emotional about the 380 number, so why get ulcers over the 192 number? Get my point?
3) If the DD game you're playing has MDE then back count and Wong in, if not, then Wong out in negative counts. This will help your EV, RoR and significantly lower your N0 among other benefits.If you've never tried Wonging out, then start with a gentle -double digit RC at first to get the hang of it, then you can get more aggressive later.
4) The I-18 is fine for shoe games, but I would suggest adding on another half dozen to your arsenal for DDers, especially negative ones.

What index's should I add? Im always looking to improve my game


The reason I got emotional about the -192 is because going from 380 to -192 requires -572 units to drop, I got emotional because its a drop of over 500 units, if it went to -192 at the start I wouldnt have been so freaked

 

[bj bob]

What index's should I add? Im always looking to improve my game

Off the top of my head I would add: 13 v 4, 14 v 2, 10 v 9 ,11 v 10 and 8 v 5,6 if you're using the split 10's version.

 

[Bondy3]

Off the top of my head I would add: 13 v 4, 14 v 2, 10 v 9 ,11 v 10 and 8 v 5,6 if you're using the split 10's version.

do you know a place were i can get a full list of index's for hi-opt I?

Ive tried googling it and looking for it on this site and I cant find it anywere

 

[Deathclutch]

do you know a place were i can get a full list of index's for hi-opt I?

Ive tried googling it and looking for it on this site and I cant find it anywere

Someone here could sim some for you if you post the specifics of the game you mostly play. I'd also recommend trying Hi Opt II for your DD of you're going to continue with it. If you can already side count aces youlll probably have no trouble with it. Also if you need I can email you a DD indice list that the Flash man sent me.

Edit: actually maybe it was Steve Waugh

 

[Bondy3]

Someone here could sim some for you if you post the specifics of the game you mostly play. I'd also recommend trying Hi Opt II for your DD of you're going to continue with it. If you can already side count aces youlll probably have no trouble with it. Also if you need I can email you a DD indice list that the Flash man sent me.

Edit: actually maybe it was Steve Waugh

I was under the impression that hi-opt II was A LOT HARD to do than hi-opt I and that the difference between the benefits of each counting system is very small. Do you know how much more of an advantage hi-opt II will give vs hi-opt I?

Anyways, the game I'm playing is DD H17, double any 2 cards, double after split, resplit aces, peek, no surrender.

I have been counting using Hi-opt I with an aces side count, though I dont really know what the right thing to do with the aces side count is, I just know more aces left in the deck is good so if the ace density is more I count it as good and I add +1 or +2 to my TC for betting, and if its bad then I bet min.

Could you please run a sim for the game and find all the index's for TC of +/- 8. for the 0/1/1/1/1/0/0/0/-1/-1/-1/-1/0 (hi opt I) counting system?