my voodoo system... anybody interested?

[ohbehave]

Second 1000 hand series

1006 hands played

221 series performed
142 series completed
79 series not completed
64% series completion

Beginning bankroll......................$1000
Ending bankroll..........................-$369
Net profit/loss.........................-$1369

Lowest bankroll..............................$0
# times bankroll replenished...............2

Bankroll after 2000 hands............$1270
Gross profit/loss..........................$270

ROI after 2000 hands...................$.13 per hand

 

[ohbehave]

...thing is i think you know it's pretty much doomed for failior if you get out of the short run.
not sure how it would do in the short run...

In all honesty, yes, I know where this is likely going. And since no one has been willing to explain to this noobie why it won't work other than to say 'it won't work, don't do it, you will lose money' I will explain it to those who may not understand the reason.

Using my system and maintaining an average bet of $33.20 after 50000 hands I can expect to have lost approximately $8300.

The reason is because if I play every single hand dealt to me the house will have an edge of approximately .05% on each and every hand. The fact that I vary my bets makes no difference as long I use the same average bet whether I have an advantage or the house has the advantage. Thats pretty much it.

But, to go a little further. Even after the 'long run' individual players results will be profoundly different. Some will have wins, some loses, some will be even.

For any group of perfect BS players there will be a bell curve centered over -.05% ROI for their results. The majority of players results will fall within one standard deviation of -.05% but some may have won substantially while some will have lost everything they have.

Its no different for the group of AP players except their bell curve is centered somewhat over +.05%, meaning that a larger percentage of that group will be winners. There will still be some substantial loses as well.

So for my 50000 hand challenge the end result could really be anything from a loss of thousands of dollars to a gain of thousands of dollars and it still wouldn't really mean anything except for that particular challenge.

 

[Sonny]

Even after the 'long run' individual players results will be profoundly different. Some will have wins, some loses, some will be even.

I think you misunderstand the concept of the long run. When you reach the long run your actual results will be equal to your theoretical expectation. All BS players will lose 0.5% of their bets in the long run. In the short run their results will look like the bell curve you mentioned, but in the long run their results will always end up at their expected value.

Your 50,000 hand challenge will only give you short-term results. If you got thousands of people to play 50,000 hands then their individual short-term results will create a skewed distribution (as described in my previous post to sagefrog) but when you combined their results into a single long-term results you will see the 0.5% house edge show through. Some of the individual players may have escaped the house edge for those few hands, but if they continued to play into the long run then it would eventually catch up with them.

That’s why APs are so hell-bent on reaching the long run. At that point the “luck” evens out and you’re left with the results of your skill. For an AP that means he will earn his pay. For a BS player or progression player it means he will fall victim to the house edge.

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

I don't think I misunderstood long run. I think your referring to long run as in the results obtained from a simulated number of hands that are impossible to reach in one's lifetime.

If I'm reading you correctly on what you say is the long run... i.e. thousands of people playing 50000 hands how could any one player ever say he's played enough hands to reach the long run, and thus his expected ev. There has to be a practical limit to the long run.

From what I've been reading 50000 actual hands played (approx 500 hours) is considered to be in the range of the 'long run.' The concept of N0 which if I understand correctly is the calculation of the actual long run for a player. But I've definitely seen 50k hands suggested as approaching the long run.

And, thus, the bell curve distribution would still apply. I have a hard time believing that, although AP players strive for a particular ev, there is not a bell curve distribution of results for those AP players reaching for the same ev.

 

[Sonny]

You are correct about N0, but in this situation things are very different. You don’t say what the N0 of a progression player is, you simply assume it is the same as the N0 of a generic AP. That is not the case. In fact, even different APs will have greatly different N0s based on the advantage and variance of their particular strategy. I've seen N0s range from 800-300,000 hands. In those cases to achieve a 95% confidence level could take anywhere from 32 hours to 12,000 hours. And if you want truly accurate numbers for your advantage you will have to run many, many more hands than that. The more hands you play, the more accurate your numbers will be. That's why simulation programs often run billions of hands even though it is not practical to play that many hands in the real world.

The problem is that a progression player does not have a normal distribution. He will have a skewed distribution instead of a bell shaped curve. That will change the variance, and therefore the value of N0, dramatically. Without knowing the variance of the progression player’s strategy you can’t make any estimates of how many hands will have to be played to achieve statistical significance.

-Sonny-

[EDIT: Also, keep in mind that an AP's advantage increases faster than his variance, so an AP will usually have a smaller N0 than a flat betting BS player. That means a BS player will require more hands to overcome the "luck" of the game than an AP. A progression player will have a much higher variance than a BS player so his resuts will take even more hands to reach statistical significance.]

 

[ohbehave]

I'm not sure I was referring to N0 for a progression player. I didn't know it could even be used in that case. I just meant 'long run' in practical terms for any player. Statistically, I agree, that might still be considered 'short run.'

I plead ignorant and defer to your knowledge of the mathematical models of progression strategies.

 

[Sonny]

For the sake of discussion, let’s look at some sample values for N0 based on different betting strategies. This will give us an idea of how many hands we must play to get some reasonable results. We have 3 players:

Flat Bettor
EV = -0.5%
SD = 1.15

Reverse Martingale Player
EV = -0.5%
SD = 1.64 (from Stanford Wong’s simulation)

Card Counter
EV = 1.5%
SD = 2.8

We can see that the variance for the card counter is considerably higher than the others, but when we calculate the N0 we can see how his advantage actually makes his bad luck much easier to overcome.

Flat Bettor
N0 = 52,900

Reverse Martingale Player
N0 = 107,584

Card Counter
N0 = 34,844

The card counter will overcome one standard deviation after about 35,000 hands whereas the progression player will need to play over 107,000 hands to reach the same confidence level. If we expand our range to three standard deviations, the Martingale player will have to play 968,256 hands (almost a million!) to achieve 99.7% confidence in his results. Even if the progression system did give him an advantage, it would still take more than a lifetime of play to have a reasonable chance of actually making a profit.

-Sonny-

 

[josh3623]

I'm interested

I tried your link it didn't work. Would you care to explain your strategy in a little more detail.
Thanks.

I also count but I've done better both at the casino and on blackjack trainers with this system, however my experience is somewhat limited in live play. Would 5 or 10 of you be interested in not just saying it doesn't work but put it to the test and run a thousand hands on any online trainer you choose (use a realistic trainer... i.e. not one that shuffles after each hand).

Its a variation of Labouchere, the elimination system. If your not familiar with Labouchere check http://www.ace-ten.com/strategy/intermediate/effective/ Here are the specifics.

approximately 1000 hands, replenish BR if necessary
use strict basic strategy only, 6D, DA2, DAS, NRA, NS
starting BR $1000
$5 units
starting series of numbers is 1,2,3,4

the goal is to complete each series however I've put in bailout limits so some series will not be completed

THE RULES
1) maximum bet is 15 units ($75)
2) if you reach max bet, win or lose, your next bet must start a new series
3) if you lose 3 consecutive hands you must start a new series

Record your net win or loss after approximately 1000 hands. I know its not statistically significant but its a start without being overly burdensome. Should only take a couple of hours to complete the trial.

 

[Sonny]

I tried your link it didn't work. Would you care to explain your strategy in a little more detail.
Thanks.

This link should work:

http://www.ace-ten.com/strategy/intermediate/effective/

-Sonny-

 

[ohbehave]

I got lucky and won some money with this system but its a losing system like Sonny and the rest say. Listen to them. If you still want details let me know.

 

[josh3623]

Thanks I got it

I got lucky and won some money with this system but its a losing system like Sonny and the rest say. Listen to them. If you still want details let me know.

Sonny's link worked, Thanks Sonny. Well I checked it out; what a difficult and complicated system, especially since it will only delay the inevetible. If you can successfully implement the Lebouchere system, learning a simple card counting technique such as High-Low should be a breeze. However just remember card counting can't guarantee short term wins, although it will guarantee long term wins with the proper bankroll, so if you start out losing just hang in there, and remember that you will win in the long run, if you stick to basic strategy and raise and lower your bets accordingly.

 

[ohbehave]

There would be no way to carry it out completely in the casino without somehow writing it down so thats how the stop measures developed and its not so difficult. Practice at home for a few hundred hands and you'll have it down.

I have used it once when initially sitting down for part of a shoe or so for cover. Then switch to counting once the pit has pegged you for a ploppy. Seemed to work well but I'm not a big bettor yet so not much to worry about from the pits yet anyway.

 

[Kasi]

There would be no way to carry it out completely in the casino without somehow writing it down so thats how the stop measures developed and its not so difficult. Practice at home for a few hundred hands and you'll have it down.

I have used it once when initially sitting down for part of a shoe or so for cover. Then switch to counting once the pit has pegged you for a ploppy. Seemed to work well but I'm not a big bettor yet so not much to worry about from the pits yet anyway.

Well the way I'd probably practice it would be to start each series with $1K or 200 units. Then keep track of the results of the series - how often/much you finished up or down, length of series etc etc.

I'm sure the casino would let you write down a cancellation series lol.

If you want I can always send you 30,000 hands, maybe more, with the win/l/t results already there and you could apply your betting to it maybe. and keep track of each series somehow. Results are from an internet game, I think with similar rules. Maybe only split once I think.

 

[standard toaster]

I'm not afraid at all.
-Sonny-

:laugh:Sonny now i realize where all those posts come from:grin:
you get into every voodoo thread in an attempt to save that person
in turn they call you out and you never run a sim so you must be afraid! Sonny should be changed from bullet chaser to chicken wire


really though sonny is trying to help you out... like he described a progression will always lose. We have all been there we have all tried it (i think) and we have all learned. The fact is you will still do it and you will eventually lose but please do not loose a lot on this strategy. For a short term win go for it make some money get a room and get comped but please realize at some point it will end in a null bankroll for you. It sucks but remember you can always learn to count if you dont already know how

 

[Kasi]

It sucks but remember you can always learn to count if you dont already know how

Well, I wish ohbehave would return as I have some questions lol.

It's never about whether you will win or lose in 10 billion hands its about how long you will last given goals and time.

To me anyway lol.

Alot of people might be happy breaking even over the next 500,000 hands, don't you think?

I ran 1000 hands using his system, as I understood it, thru previously recorded hands, and didn't like that much what I found lol. Way below results as opposed to flat-betting.

Not nearly as powerful as my black magic playing the same 1000 hands.

As it happens lol.

Still, even Sonny says, I think lol, voodoo has its place in some circumstances.

 

[ohbehave]

I'm here Kosi

What questions do you have?

I know this system will fail in the long run. Wish that wasn't true but it seems to be. I've run thousands of hands and at times it goes really well but then other times it goes really, really bad.

I can't say I'm ahead after all those practice hands and I'm not using this system at the tables anymore although I did win a substantial amount early on... dumb luck I suppose. Helped strengthen my br anyway.

 

[Kasi]

What questions do you have?

I know this system will fail in the long run. Wish that wasn't true but it seems to be. I've run thousands of hands and at times it goes really well but then other times it goes really, really bad.

I can't say I'm ahead after all those practice hands and I'm not using this system at the tables anymore although I did win a substantial amount early on... dumb luck I suppose. Helped strengthen my br anyway.

Oh mostly I think it was whether a LLTLLTLLT streak would not qualify as 3 losses in a row.

Also wondered if you had WLTBJ results for the hands you played and ehat you bet on each hand. maybe in a file lol. No big deal lol.

It does seem fairly aggressive with higher highs and lower lows than maybe a milder system might yield. Like I was up 190 units in the first 325 hands and all the way down to -90 units 400 hands later so like 280 units down in a few 100 hands lol.

But you know - pretty meaningless lol.

Maybe I'll do the same hands using 10 1's in a row and see what happens lol. That'll take a lot longer to get up to a 15 unit bet lol.

I had fun doing it lol. Mostly because it was easy since I didn't have to actually play any hands lol.

Wonder how many AP players actually play 1000 hands using the betting system they decided ahead of time to play with no/little variation lol.

Disciplined voodoo has its own expectations too lol.

 

[ohbehave]

I wasnt that organized with the results because I was trying to pump out tons of hands as quickly as possible. Its all hand written on paper. I have a lot of records of individual series and percentages of completed series and units won/lost but no individual hand histories. And its all loosely organized.

As far as LLTLLTLLT... I would count it as 6 consecutive losses. I simply repeat the bet after a push.

Sounds like your experiencing the system about like I did... very much a roller coaster ride.

 

[ohbehave]

I think I'm going back to my progression system. I've given card counting a couple of months of dedicated work. I know how to count, I know when there's a player's advantage. But... I've lost as much money counting cards in that time as I have won playing the progression.

What I can determine from the countless hours of sims and practice is that any time I sit down with up to 40 units I am close to 100% likely to lose it all.

I've only once lost a 20 unit buy-in using my progression. I figure if its likely that I'll lose it all I might as well play something that I've had some success with.

I had stopped doing the manual simulation of my system but resumed it today. Here are the next 2000 hands:

First 1k hands...............+134 units
Second 1k hands...........+357 units

So, for a total of 4000 hands..........+545 units

For a test to help make sure the practice simulator is distributing the cards equally I counted blackjacks. A player should receive 1 BJ every 20 hands. In 1515 hands I received 73 BJs for a ratio of 20.75:1.

I'm not sure why I'm posting this but I know there are a couple of progression players here who are having success. Maybe just a way to bond.

 

[standard toaster]

I think I'm going back to my progression system. I've given card counting a couple of months of dedicated work. I know how to count, I know when there's a player's advantage. But... I've lost as much money counting cards in that time as I have won playing the progression.

What I can determine from the countless hours of sims and practice is that any time I sit down with up to 40 units I am close to 100% likely to lose it all.

I've only once lost a 20 unit buy-in using my progression. I figure if its likely that I'll lose it all I might as well play something that I've had some success with.

I had stopped doing the manual simulation of my system but resumed it today. Here are the next 2000 hands:

First 1k hands...............+134 units
Second 1k hands...........+357 units

So, for a total of 4000 hands..........+545 units

For a test to help make sure the practice simulator is distributing the cards equally I counted blackjacks. A player should receive 1 BJ every 20 hands. In 1515 hands I received 73 BJs for a ratio of 20.75:1.

I'm not sure why I'm posting this but I know there are a couple of progression players here who are having success. Maybe just a way to bond.

well as long as you know the results of your decision i wont argue
i feel like going to a progression sometimes to but i always remind myself its the long run im shooting for

about the ratio of bjs 1.5k hands is hardly enough to determine any results over time it would even out to what you would expect