need advise

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Paul Hennessey

Member
In 2017 I won $13,500 using BS and a variation of the MIT betting system. I did this using Mohegan Sun, Foxwoods and mostly Twin River. 6/8 decks, late surrender dealer stands on soft 17 and no side bets. I got as high as $19,000 a head but had a rough December. I ended up winning 60% of the time. Seat does not seem to matter but I like to choose a table where players have chips in front of them. It is a given that I will be the best player at the table. Gamblers generally use basic strategy only some of the time. I am down about $4,000 this year. I do not believe in luck but there is something to momentum. When loosing I go less frequently. I do keep strict records as I understand human nature tends to remember the wins and minimize the losses. In the last 17 visits, I won 5 times! Help if you can. [email protected]
 
JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
Adjust your bets so that you're playing a smaller game. This will help you withstand another losing streak. Unless you want to gamble with a high RoR.
 
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Paul Hennessey

Member
JohnCrover said:
Adjust your bets so that you're playing a smaller game. This will help you withstand another losing streak. Unless you want to gamble with a high RoR.
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I have lowered my basic wager and the number of times I play. I do not understand how I went from winning 60% of the time to less than 30%....
 
Ryemo

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
Paul Hennessey said:
In 2017 I won $13,500 using BS and a variation of the MIT betting system.
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Can you explain what that means?

Paul Hennessey said:
Seat does not seem to matter but I like to choose a table where players have chips in front of them...
...I do not believe in luck but there is something to momentum. When loosing I go less frequently.
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This is nothing more than voodoo thinking. None of what you said in the 2nd quote makes any sense.

Paul Hennessey said:
In the last 17 visits, I won 5 times!
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How many hours is this? 17 “visits” is not even close to being anywhere near the “long run.”

Just from what I’ve read in your first post, it seems like you still have much to learn and have to let go of many different gamblers’ fallacies. I don’t know what kind of spreads you’re using and I honesty don’t know if you’re counting or even playing with an edge. Maybe you could help clarify?
 
Ryemo

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
sagefr0g said:
anonymity can give you an advantage, lack of it, perhaps the reverse
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First, someone would need to deem him to be a threat before he has to worry about that.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
Ryemo said:
First, someone would need to deem him to be a threat before he has to worry about that.
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just me maybe, it's perhaps best to safe guard ones identity with respect to a wide array of aspects, not just gamming. here's hoping someone's identity isn't indeed unprotected (as it appears), out here in the wild and wooly internet.
at any rate, I suspect the person in question at some point shall become a concern with gamming should he keep listening to you, sir.
 
B

BoSox

Well-Known Member
Paul Hennessey said:
In 2017 I won $13,500 using BS and a variation of the MIT betting system. I did this using Mohegan Sun, Foxwoods and mostly Twin River. 6/8 decks, late surrender dealer stands on soft 17 and no side bets.
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Paul, in one of those three casinos the only way you can play the game with the rules you described is by playing an NMSE "no mid-shoe entry" table. If that is the case when you are playing an NMSE game I suspect you are over betting your roll and not spreading enough hurting your game. Do not overemphasize on the better rules if you are not properly bankrolled to play against them.

Paul Hennessey said:
Seat does not seem to matter but I like to choose a table where players have chips in front of them. It is a given that I will be the best player at the table. Gamblers generally use basic strategy only some of the time. I am down about $4,000 this year. I do not believe in luck but there is something to momentum.
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When you even consider in your head that seat position matters, or how many chips are in front of other players, and that there is something to momentum you are not thinking like an AP. Not to mention it is far from a given that you are the best player at the table.
 
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Ryemo

Ryemo

Well-Known Member
Paul Hennessey said:
The betting system I use is 1-3-2-6-7-8...It is true that at Foxwoods I am at a %50.00 table and need to increase my bankroll.
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I knew it... *facepalm*
 
JohnCrover

JohnCrover

Banned
Ryemo said:
I knew it... *facepalm*
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I was thinking the same thing. You can't win using that betting system, total rookie system.
Paul Hennessey said:
The betting system I use is 1-3-2-6-7-8...It is true that at Foxwoods I am at a %50.00 table and need to increase my bankroll.
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Try using 1-2 5-3-3-6-1-1-1-10-8. That's what most professionals use nowadays, even though you can try letting your bet ride a few times if you're willing to play with more risk.
Edit: I should also add that if you get a 4 leaf clover and a rabbits foot, as well as a horseshoe you're playing with virtually 0% risk of ruin, regardless of the game you're playing.
 
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Paul Hennessey

Member
JohnCrover said:
I was thinking the same thing. You can't win using that betting system, total rookie system.

Try using 1-2 5-3-3-6-1-1-1-10-8. That's what most professionals use nowadays, even though you can try letting your bet ride a few times if you're willing to play with more risk.
Edit: I should also add that if you get a 4 leaf clover and a rabbits foot, as well as a horseshoe you're playing with virtually 0% risk of ruin, regardless of the game you're playing.
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JohnCrover said:
I was thinking the same thing. You can't win using that betting system, total rookie system.

Try using 1-2 5-3-3-6-1-1-1-10-8. That's what most professionals use nowadays, even though you can try letting your bet ride a few times if you're willing to play with more risk.
Edit: I should also add that if you get a 4 leaf clover and a rabbits foot, as well as a horseshoe you're playing with virtually 0% risk of ruin, regardless of the game you're playing.
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JohnCrover said:
I was thinking the same thing. You can't win using that betting system, total rookie system.

Try using 1-2 5-3-3-6-1-1-1-10-8. That's what most professionals use nowadays, even though you can try letting your bet ride a few times if you're willing to play with more risk.
Edit: I should also add that if you get a 4 leaf clover and a rabbits foot, as well as a horseshoe you're playing with virtually 0% risk of ruin, regardless of the game you're playing.
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Having lived 71 years I have come to the conclusion that what you say is as important as to how you say it. Thanks, asshole
 
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DSchles

Well-Known Member
Paul Hennessey said:
Having lived 71 years I have come to the conclusion that what you say is as important as to how you say it. Thanks, asshole
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OK, so let me say it more politely. No betting "system" can change a negative advantage into a positive one. You are playing at a disadvantage using basic strategy alone. If you don't count and vary your bet with the count, you can't win in the long run. The surprise isn't that you're losing now; the surprise is that you got lucky and ever won in the first place.

And that's the best advice (note spelling) you're going to get, from one 71-year-0ld to another. :)

Don
 
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Paul Hennessey

Member
DSchles said:
OK, so let me say it more politely. No betting "system" can change a negative advantage into a positive one. You are playing at a disadvantage using basic strategy alone. If you don't count and vary your bet with the count, you can't win in the long run. The surprise isn't that you're losing now; the surprise is that you got lucky and ever won in the first place.

And that's the best advice (note spelling) you're getting to get, from one 71-year-0ld to another. :)

Don
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Thank you. It does pay to be polite.
 
Red Green

Red Green

Member
I give credit to people who are willing to learn. The first Blackjack book I ever bought was published by a turtleneck/blazer wearing charlatan, who need not be mentioned. Later I found out what that book was worth and have since acquired, read and continue to study from the masters, including, as already noted, Dr. S. (Don - if you don't have a PhD, you deserve one! I can't grant one, but consider it a sincere honorific).

This game is well studied - some would say solved. But not everyone knows that and these forums provide a place where people can be pointed in the right direction.

Good Luck, Mr. H., and as the man says, you may want to set up a nom de plume for your account and slip into some anonymity. After all, you've now been pegged as a progression bettor and may have bought some cover, paid for by your lucky run of variance...
 
J

JJP

Well-Known Member
Paul Hennessey said:
I have lowered my basic wager and the number of times I play. I do not understand how I went from winning 60% of the time to less than 30%....
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The variance pendulum swings in both the positive and negative directions.
 
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