btklc said:
I have owned a successful contracting business for the last 12 years, but
the changing economic landscape is forcing a change.
My thoughts: Ive been a pretty hardcore rec. gambler and have been pretty
happy with my results. No counting up till now using martingale system.
No longer willing to take those chances. Planning on 5k bankroll playing on
$15 table. I would like to see $400-500 per session whether it takes 1 hour
or 8. Do plan on counting (once comfortable w/ it) Any thoughts? Please
share. Thanks a bunch to all you with the experience.
Is this realistic?
No, it is very unrealistic.
For starters to grow their bankroll, I recommend $7500 for their initial bankroll and they need to keep in mind for $7500 BR to work, the strict guideline is as the following:
This is for half Kelly bet, that means your max bet is $75 if your advantage is 2% and BR is $7500. For your advantage to be 2%, you need to find a good game and spread 15 to 1 (assuming playing shoe game). Since your max bet is $75, you have to find a $5 minimal table. Keep in mind that you have to maintain 2% advantage for the scenario to work, so you need to have your max bet out when TC reaches +4 or +5. This assumes you have to play all hands.
If you play in the area that Wonging is possible, you can modify the above scenario a little bit. The principle is the same. Half Kelly bet is $75 for 2% advantage and $7500 BR. (Half Kelly bet is $50 for 2% advantage and $5000 bankroll. This is for people with smaller initial BR. But once again, you need a sizable initial BR.) To achieve 2% advantage, you might Wong in when TC is +1 and Wong out when TC is -1. Bet $25 when TC is -1, 0 or +1. Bet $50 when TC is +2 or +3. Bet $75 when TC is +4 or higher. Keep in mind you need 2% advantage, so you have to adjust bet size according the actual penetration and game rules.
Mathematics behind this half Kelly bet:
1/2 x $7500 x 2% = $75 (This will be your max bet.)
Say you make progress that your BR grows to $12000 and you find a good double deck game and have 2.5% advantage. Your Half Kelly Bet is
1/2 x $12000 x 2.5% = $150
Your max bet is $150. Although it is a kind of stretch to achieve 2.5% advantage by spreading 6 to 1 on DD, if you have a lot of index plays, you may now play at $25 minimal table and spread $25 to $150. To be on safe side, you might consider 8 to 1 spread. So your minimal bet is about $20 when TC is negative or 0.
Once you grow your BR to six figures, you might switch to Quarter Kelly Bet to greatly reduce your Risk of Ruin. You might want to reduce your spread or have occasional misplays to deflect heat. By doing so, your advantage is reduced, say to 1%. Your max bet is
1/4 x $100000 x 1% = $250
The new spread is $25 to $250 at $25 minimal shoe game. You will be comfortable in playing this to generate consistent income and have longevity in doing so. This is your end-of-game goal.
(How much income you generate you may ask? This is the rough estimate. The average bet is 1.8 x $25 = $45. Assume your play 100 hands per hour, your income per hour is
$45 x 100 x 1% = $45
When you see a lazy pit boss, you might play optimally and have that 2% advantage:
$45 x 100 x 2% = $90
Not to bad to earn $45 or $90 per hour.)
