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[Noonan]

Hello everyone,

I wasn't sure where I should post my first thread but since I have some CC related questions I figured I'd start here.

First I want to thank everyone responsible for this website/forum and the vast amount of information it contains. Also thanks in advance to all of the senior members for sharing your depth of knowledge; I'm new to this but I can already tell your insight is going to be tremendously helpful.

I decided to start counting as of late. I've gambled here and there. Mostly blackjack as well with the occasional hands at video poker.

Up until now I have been a basic strategy player (or at least I thought). Anyways, I was playing a couple weeks ago and got taken hard. Now I'm ok with losing but in this instance the dealer was a complete a** about it and now I am driven to beat the casinos at their own game. There is an added thrill knowing that if you play smart and study hard you can beat the system.

For the past few weeks I've been counting decks like crazy (Hi Lo) and I've been thumbing through Arnold Snyder's book Blackbelt at Blackjack. I have also browsed through the Blackjack School section of this site and based on recommendations from other members in other threads I ordered CVBJ this morning.

Before I move forward and really dive into this I was hoping to get some possible direction from some of you here. I know at one point everyone started from square one and being able to look back I'm sure there is a certain direction that one would recommend. I have decided to dedicate a substantial amount of time studying and building my bankroll to 5k (few months time) before I step into a casino and throw away money.

I know there is no A to B route but if you guys were to start accumulating information all over again is there a route you feel would be best? Over the past few weeks I've come across so much information that I kind of get overwhelmed and worry that I may become confused with all of the information since some of it appears to be conflicting. I am even open to reviewing multiple books on statistics.

I know I'm not the only one to have posted a thread like this and I appreciate any and all advice you guys might have. Once again, thanks to everyone that makes this site awesome. I look forward to learning from everyone.

-Noonan

 

[blackjackomaha]

Welcome to the forums! :toast:

As you said, there is an enormous amount of helpful resources at your disposal. If you're just starting out, hi-lo is very easy to learn/use. If you are indeed serious about becoming an AP, you cannot learn everything from reading and preparing at home. You definitely need real-world practice. Also, I would recommend learning a level 2 count before you start seriously playing - that way, you will be using a stronger system right away. However, before you head out to practice your newly learned skills, keep the following in mind:

• Do not be discouraged by losses (if you are playing correctly)
• Have reasonable expectations - you will not clean the tables with a $5 minimum bet
• Use the correct BS for the game you are playing
• Practice camouflage! If not, you WILL stick out!
• Have an adequate bankroll for your bet spread
• Counting alone is one of the weakest AP techniques; I encourage you to learn other techniques as your skills progress

Also, before posting new questions, please utilize the sticky threads and search feature on this site, as they contain many FAQ's!

Good cards! :cool2:

 

[Southpaw]

I like Noonan already. This is probably the best "I'm new to the forum" thread I can recall of. Although I try to not be quick to judge, I often feel I can tell almost 100% of what I'd want to know about a person just by their writing.

While we are on the subject of starting out with 5k, I might recommend a thread by JG over on BC.com. Since BC is weird and won't let me link you directly to the thread "Why a Guy Can't Make it with 5k," I'll C+P it's contents below in italics.

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On bjinfo, a guy announces that he is "turning pro" with $1200, or $7300, or some small BR. Basically, everyone tells him that his chances are slim, and that he's better off getting a real job to build his bankroll. Everyone there talks about the BR management challenge, and ignores the real problem with starting out with such a small BR--overexposure.

While it's true that all else equal, a small (red/green) bettor won't get noticed as much as a big (black/purple) bettor, the small bettor does nevertheless get noticed. Building a BR from $5000 (or whatever) to $50000 will involve a tremendous amount of exposure.

A pro who is given $5000 to work with will avoid many of the heat traps, but a rookie doesn't have the experience to avoid such traps, and will actually accumulate more backoffs in the next two years than I've had in the last five. If this guy does actually avoid busting out, and intends to play over the long term (five years or more), he will greatly regret some of the exposure he took for so little reward in his first year or two.

He will probably also poison up his clean name, because the web crowd will give him garbage advice like: "at such small stakes, comps are a significant portion of your EV."

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Indeed, I agree it would take a ton of exposure to build a 5k bank up to size, but JG doesn't really mention why this is necessarily so. Your bankroll growth rate will be very slow off the bat because your expenses are going to be large in comparison to your winrate. Much larger than if you were able to spread 25-450, for example; your fixed costs will remain the same, while your EV would be much larger if your bank could support a higher unit size. Thus, you will need to expose yourself, perhaps more than expected because your expenses will cause your bankroll growth rate to lag until you are able to work up to larger units.

I once read a very interesting article about expenses and certainty equivalent--I was almost positive that it was the one I am about to link you to, but it appears I am wrong. It stated that never should your expenses be more than a quarter of your EV, unless you want to go broke with almost 100% certainty. I can't find the article, however.

To make sure you're not wasting your time you should probably make sure the certainty equivalent (CE) of the game you are playing is well higher than your expenses (or you ought to by definition of CE spend your time doing something else).

If you're interested in what CE is, here is a good article:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ror/ce.htm (Archive copy)

Best,

Spaw

 

[kewljason]

This is a worthy discussion because it seems of late we have many new posters/members, (or perhaps the same one over and over, but that's another topic) who think they are going pro with a 5k bankroll.

As someone who did exactly this 8 years ago, starting with actually a bit less than 5K and building it to now just over 6 figures, I gotta tell you it can't be done. :laugh: I laugh, but I am dead serious. It is the longest of longshots. Maybe not quite the equivelent of winning the lottery, but you need a lot of things to break just right for you. A LOT! Looking back I am truely astonished at my particular journey. Astonished at the incredible luck I had especially during the early part of the run, when I had know idea of just how extremely fortunate I was.

So here is the way I see it. $5,000 BR. 2 possible scenarios. 1.) part-time player, with outside income, to support himself. The best chance of success but he is going to have to minimize expenses. This means he better live real close to the casinos. His expenses getting to the games has to be almost nothing, because his EV from red chip play is very low. If he has to spend even 30-40 bucks getting to the game (gas and tolls) forget it. he is spending more than he is making. You really gotta take a look at this because it doesn't make sense. Many people have seperate expense money that isn't part of BR, but still, there is no way to justify spending $40 to play a game for 6 hours that has an EV of $30. You are better off just to save the $40 towards bigger BR. Even if you somehow manage to keep expenses low or non existant, (I used those day buses that pay you back a bonus equal to or greater than the round trip ticket) it is going to take a long time playing part-time to even begin to build BR to a higher level where you can start to really build.

2.) Is a player who intends to play fulltime on a 5K BR. An even worse idea. Better have seperate money for living expenses for a year at least besides that 5K BR, (social security income could work) or he better being living at home where all expenses are covered. (I guess a sugardaddy, sugarmom situation could work as well...:laugh You cannot intend to take any money from the bankroll to have even a remote chance of success. I thought I had it covered by having minimal expenses, no car, roommate situation with low rent, ect, but boy, looking back, I was sooo wrong. If you are taking any kind of money out of the bankroll, you really do need lightning to strike. If you can manage to have minimal expenses and not take any money from BR, you have to hope you can tread water until you hit some positive flux, that might be able to sustain you and you better prey you hit positive flux before negative flux.

I can not emphasize enough how improbable success with eithet of these scenarios is. I think one needs a minimum of 5 figure bankroll to have any reasonable chance to succeed and even then everything I said still applies, the deck is still stacked against you, just not quite so horrendously deep.

 

[sagefr0g]

Noonan, definately don't step in the casinos and throw any money away.
but far as counting cards, imho you are on the right track about study and planning.
i think you said that you are getting cvbj, well, i'd recommend getting at least cvcx as well.
you will run up against various games, differing by rules, #decks, mins & max's. each type of game will call for a different approach and strategy. cvcx simulations can help you deal with the variations as far as strategy, especially betting strategy of various rule sets.
cvcx will also help you understand what to expect as far as results with respect to session hours or rounds and hands played. expectation in the sense of expected value as well as standard deviation. that sort of information can help you with decision making with regards to your overall game plan when going up against the casino and the game of blackjack.
cvcx will also help you understand and plan for dealing with risk to your bankroll.
if you know what to expect and if you are able to only play with an overall edge, luck will be with you.

 

[AussiePlayer]

Sticky

This thread should be made a sticky IMHO.

'Read this before posting/How to introduce yourself.'

 

[zengrifter]

He will probably also poison up his clean name, because the web crowd will give him garbage advice like: "at such small stakes, comps are a significant portion of your EV."

Yes, he's quoting me.

Indeed, I agree it would take a ton of exposure to build a 5k bank up to size, but JG doesn't really mention why this is necessarily so. Your bankroll growth rate will be very slow off the bat because your expenses are going to be large in comparison to your winrate.

Exactly, thats why the food comps are so important. zg

 

[zengrifter]

This is a worthy discussion because it seems of late we have many new posters/members, (or perhaps the same one over and over, but that's another topic) who think they are going pro with a 5k bankroll.

Despite Grosjean's and others' conventional wisdom, most pros started with $5k or less. zg

 

[Lonesome Gambler]

Southpaw's reference is valuable. And despite ZG's affinity for contradicting every single thing ever stated by JG, the concept not only has merit, it's somewhat crucial for beginners. A red chip player can stay a red chip player indefinitely (which I'm sure leaves plenty of room for argument against the exposure issue), but a player that wants to go pro will quickly learn to regret his past indiscretions and amateur mistakes later in his playing career.

Ways to avoid this:

- Play a strong counting game when you start out—don't learn at the tables
- Play short, unrated sessions
- Get in as much money as you can realistically invest in a bankroll so that you don't have to grind $10/hour
- Learn more advanced techniques as you progress as a player, to limit heat exposure and improve your win rate / ability to survive in today's games

 

[pit15]

Despite Grosjean's and others' conventional wisdom, most pros started with $5k or less. zg

Very few pros quit their job with $5K to their name and successfully made a living off it.

Trying to play full time with $5K is suicide. Your living expenses will far exceed what you can make counting, and more advanced plays require time to develop those skills. And any serious team that specializes in such plays is not going to work with someone who only has 5K

Starting with a few hundred / thousand bucks that you can afford to lose to try APing out, sure. The first time I sat down at a casino table I had 600 bucks to play with (and played 2 x 25 at three card poker), but once I decided to take it seriously I upped my bets and added more money to my bankroll.

 

[Friendo]

'Read this before posting/How to introduce yourself.'

I'd like to put that Read Before Posting on both the Blackjack - General and Blackjack - Card Counting. Those two subfora, plus 3 of the standard blackjack books, have the answers to nearly all beginner-level questions.

The statement about burning yourself out on the way up to a higher bankroll is a good warning, but in order to be assured of making money at any level, you have to blast through at least 9*N0 rounds every couple of years, and that is exposure.

I have a decent red-chip roll right now - $11K. I only go if I can get in at least 5 hours per trip. I'm playing for experience/proficiency at the moment, just looking for a few hundred more hours before I can move to green.

I don't see my blackjack earnings as the way to the next level. The bankroll growth comes from disposable income.

I wouldn't even try to build my roll to the $30K required for low-green-chip play without external funds.