New counters, advice on adjusting BS

No blackjack on board. This is Egypt, a muslim country where the Islamic faith frowns on gambling . . . allegedly. No, purely for something you'll remember for a long time.

How to book? Google it. I found a cruise that normally costs £980 that was down to £499 if you could go the following week. Bargain.
 
ah no time for that :). We have an aim to achieve, will remeber that for a later date.

Will keep everyone updated with our progress either win or lose :).

Just another question, Is out spread wide enough ?(am using the one you suggested)

Tc 1 - 1 unit - £5
TC 2 - 2 unit - £10
TC 3 - 3 unit - £20
TC 4 - 2 hands of 6 units - £30 , £30

thanks
Ming
 
I keep reading 1-4 spread won't beat the game! Sorry being new here to the terms, could someone explain what is a 1-4 spreaD? I have recently change me betting ramp to (is what i am doing a 1-4 spread):

Tc 1 - 1 unit - £5
TC 2 - 2 hands of 1.5 units - £7.5 , £7.5
TC 3 - 2 hands of 3 units - £15, £15
TC 4 - 2 hands of 6 units - £30 , £30

Remember this is in the Uk, as what most players consider to be a impossible games, any recommendation on the betting ramp would be great!

Our bank roll is currently £3000

Thanks
Ming
 
Well that would just mean your min bet would be 1 unit and your max bet would be 4 units, no?

So 5 quid min and 20 quid max. So above you have a 1-6 spread.
 
Slick said:
Well that would just mean your min bet would be 1 unit and your max bet would be 4 units, no?

So 5 quid min and 20 quid max. So above you have a 1-6 spread.
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ah thanks for the explanation

Max is actually 1 hand of £40 (or 8 units) or 2 hands of £30 (totaly of 12 units)

With that in mind, i think the bet spread is correct to beat the game!

Thank
Ming
 
Yes Ming, your spread is 1-8. You may wanna keep your old TC2 (one hand at 10) for ease and cover. I doubt you wanna look like a computer even across the pond.
No Ming, your spread is a little low to demolish the games over there. Don't forget about your ROR! If your BR goes back down to 2.000, go back to your old spread. If, hopefully when, You make it to 4 or 5.000 then increasing your spread will not be so subject to variance and your ROR may be kept the same or lowered. Your spread may be different at different casino's, you may begin to get a feeling for this, watch what others bet and see how much attention they get.

Hey Slick
When spreading to 2 hands it is normal to increase your total bet by fifty percent. 3/4 of normal bet on both hands. This has to do with co-variance which makes it the equivalent to the original bet at the original risk of ruin(ROR) while increasing the expected value(EV.)
Slick, please check the FAQ's and sticky's, maybe I have it backwards, let me know.;)
 
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I agree. As I stated on page 1, I reckon a 1-8 spread with no wonging leaves the game slightly better than breakeven. Not playing when counts fall below TC-1 will increase this to around 1%, give or take a few decimals. The wonging bit is where the majority of the advantage is to be had, although as I've said many times it's easy said than done in practice. Tweaking my spreadsheet tells me that playing 1-8 and wonging out at TC-1 gives a better win rate than 1-16 play all, and of course reduces the variance.
 
Right so in conclusion, I should keep the same bet spread and avoid all negative counts? To recoupe that 1% advantage?

Would a 1-16 spread and avoiding all negative counts be too risky to the BR? (

Thanks
Ming
 
Forgot to add the table ranges are £2 - £400.

So at negative count i won't be betting 1 unit = £5 just £2.

Does that affect much ?

Thanks
Ming
 
It's a trade off. 1-8 spread whilst wonging out at TC-1 gives a better win rate than 1-16 play all. 1-16 with wonging out at TC-1 will give a better win rate still, but will of course increase the swings you will experience over the lower spread. Only betting table min of £2.00 from TC-1 to TC+2 (where you don't have an advantage) will increase your win rate still further, as you'll be betting less when you don't have an advantage.

Just keep in mind the principal that the greater your spread, and the more you play at neg counts, the more you need to avoid tapping out. I don't have any figures to hand, but I would say if you aim to double your spread limit with the same wong out point, thereby maximising your win rate, you will need to multiply your bankroll by 1.5+. Perhaps someone else could chip in and confirm this or otherwise?
 
Hmm so you are saying even at a tC 2 don't bet higher than £2? Like there is not much advantage to be had?

Thanks
ming
 
newb99 said:
. . . Only betting table min of £2.00 from TC-1 to TC+2 (where you don't have an advantage) will increase your win rate still further, as you'll be betting less when you don't have an advantage.
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That's up to TC+2. At TC+2 you'd ramp up your bet to two units, or a tenner in your case. Having said that, I suspect your mark one eyeball will produce a margin of error when you eye up the discards to make your TC conversion, so there may be a time when you raise your bet before the exact TC+2 point is reached (unless you actually want to count the number of cards that come out that is). You could also adjust your betting ramp for 1/2 TC increments, or do true edge conversions and bet according to the Kelly criterion. You can make this as sophisticated or as easy as you're comfortable with.

As your "advantage" step is from £2 to £10 (effectively you're only betting 2/5ths of a unit when playing at a disadvantage), personally I'd wait until I hit TC+2 before making the bet (although I acknowledge I might make it before this point as a result of misreading the discards slightly).

As I've urged others, buy a copy of Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in Blackjack", read through it several times, and then build yourself a spreadsheet that will answer all of these questions for you.

Newb99
 
Thanks for the advice again newb.

The betting of the £2 hand is just to keep my sit at the table... as it always tends to get busy ~~~ And sometimes i needed to play heads up with the dealer ..

I am thinking of changing the bet spread pattern to 1-10 with little wonging at £2/hands. Will also spread to 2 hands (150% of bet), as soon as is above TC 2+.

Update on the BJ :)

since my friend went to canada, not being to casino as often, but still made a tidy profit of £220.

BR is moving up slowly at the momeny playing sololy, but no doubt the rate of increase will be quicker once we are hitting a table each! And once we hit our £4000 target we will move our units of bet up!

thanks
Ming
 
newb99 said:
As I've urged others, buy a copy of Arnold Snyder's "Blackbelt in Blackjack", read through it several times, and then build yourself a spreadsheet that will answer all of these questions for you.

Newb99
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Or not. True Edge is simply inaccurate and obsoleted by optimal betting. Why use a spreadsheet based on rough estimates when tools have existed for several years that give accurate answers?
 
newb99 said:
Put's it all into perspective doesn't it. I think you'd make more money using your two grand to buy and sell stuff on eBay.

Good luck.
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It is interesting, isn't it. I ask myself why I bother with counting. It's not about the money, because, for the hours I spend, I could make more money in other ways.

It's about doing something that most people can't do, and the challenge of beating the house at its own game.
 
QFIT said:
Or not. True Edge is simply inaccurate and obsoleted by optimal betting. Why use a spreadsheet based on rough estimates when tools have existed for several years that give accurate answers?
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So you don't think they should study the game and build their own spreadsheet?

I appreciate that true edge conversions will only ever be an estimate (I can't however remember reading in the book anything along the lines of it being claimed to be highly accurate) in the same way that saying a TC1 plus or minus count represents roughly a half per cent shift in the edge. Mark one eyeballs are also inaccurate and so deck estimation for TC conversions will only ever be just that - an estimate. You could of course keep tally of the number of cards that come out so you would know exactly how many were still in play, but I think for the average recreational counter that would be taking things a bit far. We don't all need a mathematical analysis that goes to the nth degree.

Personally I apply a fixed betting ramp as I can't be ar$ed to do TE calcs before every bet, and don't have a fixed bankroll set aside for the sole purposes of playing BJ anyway.

But I accept your point - TE calcs will never be as accurate as simming a strategy and calculating an optimal betting scheme beforehand.
 
ycming said:
I am thinking of changing the bet spread pattern to 1-10 with little wonging at £2/hands. Will also spread to 2 hands (150% of bet), as soon as is above TC 2+.
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So you bet the table min of £2, and suddently you shift to two boxes of £8 or more each? And then after a hand or two perhaps go back to one bet of £2?

I hope you keep one eye on the location of the man/lady in the suit at all times. They are the floor supervisors and don't wear the standard Gala uniforms. Generally they run around filling in forms and supervising chip replenishments etc, but when they've nothing to do they'll just sit and watch people playing - I'm sure you've seen them. I've had one hovering over my shoulder in the past - I think just curious as to why the pile of chips in front of me was growing, when everyone else was losing all and leaving the table after they'd blown their score buy in (the card god was smiling on me that day).

I've also seen a floor sup sitting behind a screen looking at stills from the entrance camera - probably looking to ID someone for some reason. So although, in my experience, the dealers have little idea of how counting works (although one I met in a Gala knew exactly what I was doing), the supervisors and managers are not completely silly and will notice these things if you rub their noses in it. And they'll notice if you're playing a lot of hours there and regularly cashing out more than you cash in. They expect you to win some, lose some sure - but if they see you betting £2 table mins, spreading to two boxes for more for a few hands at a time, and then cashing out a couple hundred, they might just ask the dealer what you cashed in for (if they haven't already checked your Fortune points account first and you used it) - again out of curiosity. Then they'll put two and two together. And from then onwards you're a suspect as they say . . . .

It may be that they only worry about all of this stuff on the £25 table, but you may just run foul of some snotty young upstart looking to score a few brownie points in the first few weeks of their being given the sup's slot. There's always one (unfortunately).

Good luck with your £4K target.
 
Shortly after Arnold Snyder's debacle publishing the silly "True Edge" for the ZEN Count, he published an online article giving a good comprehensive matrix of B.S. departure indices.

It is simple to find online at his website.
 
ycming said:
Just an update, after a long 3 days at the casino spending a total of 36 hours, we have only made 10 units! but in the process, we have took some massive hit and lost £400 of out £2000 bankroll at one point, so thank **** we recovered !

will keep everyone updated :)

Thanks
Ming
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You need to think about how much time you are spending at the tables. If you are sitting there for 12 hours per day and spreading 1:8 or 2 x 1:8, you're giving the casino more than enough time to figure out that you're counting.
 
Shouldn't really be shareing this. But i do know infomation from the inside. The manager (or u call it people with suits that watches their screen at the side) of the casino thinks we are just wannabe card counters as we give the image that just watched the film and think we are it.

And they know exactly how much we cashed out on them. We get away with everything in there.

We are only £600 off the £4000 target.

and newb, if you looked at the machines they use for the fortunate points, they do keep a tag of how much you cash in and how much you left the table with! Ask to have a look next time they'll show u ;)

Thanks
Ming
 
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