Martinstatic
Member
What's your bankroll? It makes a world of difference knowing this...
eg, If you have 5 dollars, then your chances are nil.
New counters, advice on adjusting BS
- Thread starter ycming
- Start date
What's your bankroll? It makes a world of difference knowing this...
eg, If you have 5 dollars, then your chances are nil.
Just in the hotel at the moment about to go to bed for another day tomorrow!
Forgot to add we got a laptop with us and it has Wi-Fi so we can update daily now
.
We are up 535.
First we went in, we had a double on A3 v 4 on a TC+4, got a 7 on our max bet there were slight heat where the pit boss said "That's an unusual play" We quickly defuse the situations by acting dumb and new to the game.
Hopefully the profit keeps rolling in! And certainly indicies are providing great values!!
Cheers
James
Forgot to add we got a laptop with us and it has Wi-Fi so we can update daily now
.We are up 535.
First we went in, we had a double on A3 v 4 on a TC+4, got a 7 on our max bet there were slight heat where the pit boss said "That's an unusual play" We quickly defuse the situations by acting dumb and new to the game
.Hopefully the profit keeps rolling in! And certainly indicies are providing great values!!
Cheers
James
UK-21
Well-Known Member
Doubling on an A,3v4 with a hefty bet out? A brave move if I may say so - you have my respect.
I've just had a look in Wong's indices for Hi-Lo and couldn't see it as an index play. Anyone know by how much this hand is +EV at TC+4? OTT hitting beats doubling by around 1.5p/c per £/$ (+0.08174 v +0.06669) over the longer term so there ain't much in it return wise at a neutral count. At a higher count, with more clay out on the felt, does the return (whatever it is) justify the variance that will result?
I've just had a look in Wong's indices for Hi-Lo and couldn't see it as an index play. Anyone know by how much this hand is +EV at TC+4? OTT hitting beats doubling by around 1.5p/c per £/$ (+0.08174 v +0.06669) over the longer term so there ain't much in it return wise at a neutral count. At a higher count, with more clay out on the felt, does the return (whatever it is) justify the variance that will result?
Leaving a lot of money on the table if you don't double with a big bet out.... Although you won't get too many hands like this, so overall impact on WR is not so high.
This is from one of my recent index sims. HiLo count floored.
This is from one of my recent index sims. HiLo count floored.
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UK-21
Well-Known Member
I suppose it depends on how you view "a lot". 2.3 cents on the dollar over the long term doesn't seem so great I'd risk putting out another $40 or $80 on this one. But that's me. Depends what you're after of course - the old chestnut of playing to maximise EV or in a way that reduces variance.
Thanks for the screen dump though. Very useful, and confirms what I thought would be the case.
Thanks for the screen dump though. Very useful, and confirms what I thought would be the case.
Automatic Monkey
Banned
Using non-risk averse index plays is exactly the same thing as overbetting a positive count. If you wouldn't do one, you shouldn't do the other.
One troubling thing about the soft doubles is that on A2-A5 specifically, your chances of improving your hand decrease as count increases, unlike say doubling a hard 10 where the chance always increases with count. Thus the increase in EV as a function count is very slow, and I believe depending on the counting system you use, 1 or 2 of the soft double plays are retrograde!
Much like splitting 88 vs 10, which you would decline to do if the count was high enough and merely stand. So be prudent with these plays.2.3 cents on the dollar is "a lot" by any standards. If you don't think a 2.3% edge justifies putting money down, think about your edge when you have your max bet out again and again - I expect it's quite close to this.
Quantifying how much you give up on variance in return for increased EV is done automatically by risk-averse indices (I believe they maximise SCORE) - however the differences are usually max one TC away from where the expectation turns positive.
Quantifying how much you give up on variance in return for increased EV is done automatically by risk-averse indices (I believe they maximise SCORE) - however the differences are usually max one TC away from where the expectation turns positive.
However... as the count increases dealer bust probability increases, which should make up for most (perhaps not all in some cases) the decreasing EV due to lesser chances of making a good hand with a small card.
I would assume the cases you mention here are extremely rare... and you would be doing yourself damage by getting cold feet unless you take the time to learn index plays such as "Ax v 4 should not be doubled if TC > 15"...
D.
I would assume the cases you mention here are extremely rare... and you would be doing yourself damage by getting cold feet unless you take the time to learn index plays such as "Ax v 4 should not be doubled if TC > 15"...
D.
One troubling thing about the soft doubles is that on A2-A5 specifically, your chances of improving your hand decrease as count increases, unlike say doubling a hard 10 where the chance always increases with count. Thus the increase in EV as a function count is very slow, and I believe depending on the counting system you use, 1 or 2 of the soft double plays are retrograde!
UK-21
Well-Known Member
I think you have to put the 2.3% increase in your EV for this hand (or decrease on the longer term return if you just hit it) in perspective and consider it relative to other hands. How does it compare with doubling 8,3v6 for example (the other end of the spectrum admittedly) when the return on doubling the bet is much much higher (don't have my tables with me at present, but I will look it up).
And of course the longer term return takes into account the variance on the times you play it which isn't that often - so you could lose a load of money from doubling this hand before the mathematical average puts an appearance in.
If you're like me and don't play with a bankroll but have a session role of say 40 units, a couple of instances of doubling hands like this and losing will result in an early bath and an early trip of 50 miles home. So I avoid these borderline calls. It's not as if not doubling affects the liklihood of winning the hand or not - the cards that are queued at the time will come out in the same order regardless.
I've a table I refer to for every hand possible (although limited to OTT and is the basis of BS) and it would be interesting to have some sort of risk index figure (perhaps based on a % probability of tapping out with x units) where the maths indicate it is advantageous to double the hand. So with a small diff in EV between doubling and hitting, but a high risk index, one might choose to play it safe?
UK-21
Well-Known Member
8,3v6: have just looked it up on my table - the return diff between doubling and hitting this hand (OTT) is 38p in the £, and this will increase at TC+4 where the probabilities of ending up with 21 are greater. A much greater advantage with lower variance (you're more likely to win a hand when holding an 11 rather than A,3).
This is sadly has come to end shortly, not we have lost any money. Just my friend will be heading back to canada due to his commitments well his girl friend really (Bastards hoes before bros!!!!). But no doubt i will continue with the whole blackjack game, after travling to different city in the UK. Is defo worth it!
Conclusion
The fact is that we have turned £2000 into £10,000. We both didn't have a job, so all of our living cost also came off that, and we have spent around 2.5k to 3k. So ending with 7k in cash is not a bad result. (made around 2k in our recent 2 trips!)
My sole feeling in this is that, it takes a very strong trust worthy friendship to do this together. We never had a respectable bankroll to start off with, but with playing 60+ hours per week, we did even out lots and lots of variance. Still remebered from out first trip we played 8 hours str and lost £400, luckily for us we have a hate losing approach went into another casino and played 36hours str to get out money back.
Anyway, we both stayed with out parents and paying minimum digs money (or rent money other might call it), we did get extreme family pressure everytime we would leave the house and to come back 3 days later. The hardest thing is going back after a big lost, what do you tell them? All we get is "we told you so bla bla bla", is hard when this is coming from your own family.
For anyone to start this full time, serious this will be hard to do it by yourself! I was lucky to have a friend that i could trust with him having all the money and vice versa. Why is it hard you might ask?
Who supports you when you have lost 10 Max bet in a roll? Who to share the funny story on the table? And the constant reminding of ourselves that we ARE playing a postive game is a task on its own! No doubt is doable, but with a combined small bankroll i do HIGHLY suggest have 2 is better than one!
To the good side, apart from the money, there is NOT one single boring trip, each trip always i mean ALWAYS that have something that would die in laughter! The past 7 months, could possibly be the best 7 months in my life ALSO the hardest 7 months i ever worked in my life. Could we possibly say we are 2 accomplished card counters? Probably not from the little we made, but i can say, during the 7 months hard to find someone that played as much as we did, there is nothing we haven't been through, e.g. moving from £4000 to £700. Losing £1500 in one shoe, all sick moments but we kept out believe into the numbers!
Anyway i will continue playing sololy, but i doubt i will be playing as much as we did. But no doubt we have plans we would gather a much bigger bankroll and attack certain city!
Hope you all enjoy reading this thread.
Thank you to everyone especially one that has ever replied to any of my questions!
Ming
Conclusion
The fact is that we have turned £2000 into £10,000. We both didn't have a job, so all of our living cost also came off that, and we have spent around 2.5k to 3k. So ending with 7k in cash is not a bad result. (made around 2k in our recent 2 trips!)
My sole feeling in this is that, it takes a very strong trust worthy friendship to do this together. We never had a respectable bankroll to start off with, but with playing 60+ hours per week, we did even out lots and lots of variance. Still remebered from out first trip we played 8 hours str and lost £400, luckily for us we have a hate losing approach went into another casino and played 36hours str to get out money back.
Anyway, we both stayed with out parents and paying minimum digs money (or rent money other might call it), we did get extreme family pressure everytime we would leave the house and to come back 3 days later. The hardest thing is going back after a big lost, what do you tell them? All we get is "we told you so bla bla bla", is hard when this is coming from your own family.
For anyone to start this full time, serious this will be hard to do it by yourself! I was lucky to have a friend that i could trust with him having all the money and vice versa. Why is it hard you might ask?
Who supports you when you have lost 10 Max bet in a roll? Who to share the funny story on the table? And the constant reminding of ourselves that we ARE playing a postive game is a task on its own! No doubt is doable, but with a combined small bankroll i do HIGHLY suggest have 2 is better than one!
To the good side, apart from the money, there is NOT one single boring trip, each trip always i mean ALWAYS that have something that would die in laughter! The past 7 months, could possibly be the best 7 months in my life ALSO the hardest 7 months i ever worked in my life. Could we possibly say we are 2 accomplished card counters? Probably not from the little we made, but i can say, during the 7 months hard to find someone that played as much as we did, there is nothing we haven't been through, e.g. moving from £4000 to £700. Losing £1500 in one shoe, all sick moments but we kept out believe into the numbers!
Anyway i will continue playing sololy, but i doubt i will be playing as much as we did. But no doubt we have plans we would gather a much bigger bankroll and attack certain city!
Hope you all enjoy reading this thread.
Thank you to everyone especially one that has ever replied to any of my questions!
Ming
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