odd breakdown of results

[KewlJ]

A bit of a downturn on a recent out of town trip finds some interesting results at the half way point of the year for me. I am not going to use dollar amounts as people seem to get bent out of shape when I do that.

So through July 5, slightly past the halfway point of the year, my actual blackjack earnings are slightly above expectation. 104% compared to what I call accumulated EV (the EV for all rounds played). Translation: I am just a hair above expectation. That is pretty normal. Almost exactly 'normal'.

But when I break down my results by games played, 21% of my play has been double deck play, 77% shoe games, mostly 6 deck, with some selective 8 deck play and 2% other. These numbers also are also pretty normal for me. I like to get about 25% of my play as double deck play, but a recent road trip playing exclusively shoe games, has me a bit below the 25% mark, which is just a goal. I would love to play ALL double deck but I just can't get away with it.

So everything looks pretty normal so far right? Here is the odd part. My double deck play, which is 21% of all rounds played so far this year, is accounting for 102% of my total blackjack win for the year (as of yesterday). Yes, you read that right 102%. My 6 & 8 deck shoe play, is slightly in the red for the year, while my double deck results are fairly significantly ahead of expectation.

Even at 6 months play these numbers all represent a small sample size, as my total rounds played for the year is slightly below 50k. Just an odd abnormality.

Edit: and yes, I know the answer....I should play ALL double deck. Unfortunately as I said, I can't get away with that.

 

[bjo32]

Kj, have you thought about playing all DD? It looks like this will improve your results.

 

[KewlJ]

Kj, have you thought about playing all DD? It looks like this will improve your results.

Based on this year or half years results...yeah that would be the conclusion. But again, this is a very small sample size....6 months.

I am in my 11th year of playing Vegas (16th overall) and overall the majority of my winnings, by more than a 2-1 margin, has come from 6 & 8 deck play (mostly 6), which is to be expected since I play considerably more multi-deck shoe games. The first half of this year is just a really weird anomaly....which I guess is sort of stating it twice as weird is what an anomaly is in the first place.

Over the course of my years in Vegas, my double deck play has a higher win rate than my shoe game play, which again is to be expected. But as anyone who plays Vegas regularly knows or learns, an awful lot of the double deck games are "counter traps", and/or at the very least hawked very closely. This is why most players that play Vegas regularly play double deck sparingly. I am super careful in this regards. I play double deck only at independent type places. No chains or sister properties and no properties that are active database contributors. This leaves a relatively small number of double deck games that I play and that is fine. I consider my expertise (if I have any) to be shoe games.

I am not really looking for advice on how to proceed. I am very satisfied with my play and results. Just sharing a bit of an anomaly in my (short-term) results.

 

[JohnCrover]

Well, try to not go on a multi-year downswing which can happen at literally any time which would probably end most people's career.

 

[jupitor88]

How ya holding up there John? did the shuffle master in 6-8 deckers decimate your bankroll? totally different shuffle engine from hands shuffle vs casino verite shuffle vs shuffle master machine and if you had a wife she would divorce your tush long time ago and i wouldn't blame her for losing all that bankroll, the only advice i can give is don't play unless you have 30 grand and rdy to lose it all im sure the 7 headed dragons on this site would have agree with me there

 

[JohnCrover]

How ya holding up there John? did the shuffle master in 6-8 deckers decimate your bankroll? totally different shuffle engine from hands shuffle vs casino verite shuffle vs shuffle master machine and if you had a wife she would divorce your tush long time ago and i wouldn't blame her for losing all that bankroll, the only advice i can give is don't play unless you have 30 grand and rdy to lose it all im sure the 7 headed dragons on this site would have agree with me there

Still losing as always, well over 200 hours of losing under my bel, and CVCX says it's possible to lose past 1,800 hours.
People like Kewl J seem to be oblivious to the fact that their career can be closed to wiped out if not over if they happen to catch a bad run of cards but that's not a reality they acknowledge because they have been lucky throughout their entire "career." A career based on getting lucky and people like Colin Jones who are trying to sell their shit try to tell us it's not gambling.
Hey guys, earn anywhere between -$10,000 to +$200,000 over the course of two years, we're not gambling! KewlJ and people like him have been the ladder, but they have been too lucky over the course of their lives to realize just how lucky they have been.

 

[bjo32]

Still losing as always, well over 200 hours of losing under my bel, and CVCX says it's possible to lose past 1,800 hours.
People like Kewl J seem to be oblivious to the fact that their career can be closed to wiped out if not over if they happen to catch a bad run of cards but that's not a reality they acknowledge because they have been lucky throughout their entire "career." A career based on getting lucky and people like Colin Jones who are trying to sell their shit try to tell us it's not gambling.
Hey guys, earn anywhere between -$10,000 to +$200,000 over the course of two years, we're not gambling! KewlJ and people like him have been the ladder, but they have been too lucky over the course of their lives to realize just how lucky they have been.

John Cover, I agree with about the BJA group. They use the inevitable losing streaks as a catalyst to push people into their ridiculous expensive bootcamps. Whenever someone mentions going through a losing streak on the BJA forum, the first thing they recommend is that person should come to one of their $3,000 weekend Bootcamps to have their game checked out. These losing streaks play into their business model and how they make money.

Look at it this way. If so much money could be made being a counter, then they wouldn’t have started a business recuiting and teaching people how to count. They would be in casinos counting cards. The reality is there is probably much more money to be made selling wantabee counters the dreams of striking it rich in casinos.

 

[KewlJ]

Look at it this way. If so much money could be made being a counter, then they wouldn’t have started a business recuiting and teaching people how to count. They would be in casinos counting cards.

I am going to paraphrase this because I don't have the exact quote, but Stanford Wong wrote something along the lines that learning the mathematics of card counting is the easy part. Learning how to be welcome to keep playing is the harder part. All these "boot camp guys" and many other player have failed miserably at the second part. As a matter of fact, most of them didn't even give it a thought. They went in to it slash and burn style, with no consideration of what happens once you have burned out everywhere.

This second area is one thing I have managed to do right. And that wasn't by accident. I burned out my first rotation and was determined to learn from that and avoid that same mistake again.

 

[LC Larry]

I am going to paraphrase this because I don't have the exact quote, but Stanford Wong wrote something along the lines that learning the mathematics of card counting is the easy part. Learning how to be welcome to keep playing is the harder part. All these "boot camp guys" and many other player have failed miserably at the second part. As a matter of fact, most of them didn't even give it a thought. They went in to it slash and burn style, with no consideration of what happens once you have burned out everywhere.

This second area is one thing I have managed to do right. And that wasn't by accident. I burned out my first rotation and was determined to learn from that and avoid that same mistake again.

If I were a card counter in Vegas, I wouldn't play more than one shoe/shuffle per casino per shift. No need to camp out there

 

[jupitor88]

Still losing as always, well over 200 hours of losing under my bel, and CVCX says it's possible to lose past 1,800 hours.
People like Kewl J seem to be oblivious to the fact that their career can be closed to wiped out if not over if they happen to catch a bad run of cards but that's not a reality they acknowledge because they have been lucky throughout their entire "career." A career based on getting lucky and people like Colin Jones who are trying to sell their shit try to tell us it's not gambling.
Hey guys, earn anywhere between -$10,000 to +$200,000 over the course of two years, we're not gambling! KewlJ and people like him have been the ladder, but they have been too lucky over the course of their lives to realize just how lucky they have been.

Amen to that Brother

 

[jupitor88]

If I were a card counter in Vegas, I wouldn't play more than one shoe/shuffle per casino per shift. No need to camp out there

OMGOSH you would be Zenking on steroids if that were the case and would take you a decade to get into the black i wonder if you even played BJ in a real casino (not saying that cause of your name im saying that cause thats a stupid statement getting ahead and staying ahead is rediclious in BJ) just ask ZK but dont ask KJ that man is too lucky

 

[jupitor88]

I feel bad for ya John your beating a dead horse, i feel like if you just played poker and ran thru 9 grand into that game you would have gotten ahead atleast one point a good amount at that and staying ahead would depend how good you are, instead of just a nasty nose dive into the negative

 

[LC Larry]

OMGOSH you would be Zenking on steroids if that were the case and would take you a decade to get into the black i wonder if you even played BJ in a real casino (not saying that cause of your name im saying that cause thats a stupid statement getting ahead and staying ahead is rediclious in BJ) just ask ZK but dont ask KJ that man is too lucky

You have no fucking clue what you're talking about. Get a life. I said NOTHING about getting ahead or such.

To the admins here, Jupitor88 is Steve that was banned a few weeks ago. Please ban his new account too!

 

[jupitor88]

You have no fucking clue what you're talking about. Get a life. I said NOTHING about getting ahead or such.

To the admins here, Jupitor88 is Steve that was banned a few weeks ago. Please ban his new account too!

you mad Bruh? don't be and if this was the 80s and 90s id agree with you better rules back then single deck deep pent oh yea you are dead on with that statement but today? no way Robert Stanely would recommend no more than 45min per session again that might work 3 decades ago but not today better technology to catch counters and harder games make that statement a false one

i know exactly what im talking about and John knows it too and don't be hatin on Steve =)

 

[LC Larry]

you mad Bruh? don't be and if this was the 80s and 90s id agree with you better rules back then single deck deep pent oh yea you are dead on with that statement but today? no way Robert Stanely would recommend no more than 45min per session again that might work 3 decades ago but not today better technology to catch counters and harder games make that statement a false one

i know exactly what im talking about and John knows it too and don't be hatin on Steve =)

I'm not mad at anyone. But you're a retarded moron. I didn't say play more than 45 minutes. Read it again you idiot! I said I WOULDN'T play more than 1 shoe/shuffle. Go back to pretending you're going to crush 9/6 JoB!

 

[KewlJ]

getting ahead and staying ahead is rediclious in BJ) just ask ZK but dont ask KJ that man is too lucky

I resent this implication from Steve, now Jupitor.

It took me 3 years at the beginning of my career to grow my bankroll from $4300 to $10,000. Three years! It took that long because I didn't hit some sort of great win streak.

I have shared my experiences of enduring 5 different 6 month losing periods. 6 months....playing almost everyday! 5 different times. Yeah that was some good luck!

I have shared a year where my results were about a third of expectation for the entire year. 29 thousand dollars I won for the entire year! vs expectation of 86 thousand dollars! Wow that was some good luck!

Don't give me your shit about me being lucky. No such thing. I play the game by the math, endure the swings and variance in both directions and in the end, win by the math.....just like many other legitimate players on these forums. Nothing lucky about it!

I don't know what it is that a handful of these clowns like Steve/Jupitor did that they lost right away and have become bitter towards others on these forums. I suspect it had nothing to do with (bad) luck and much more to do with not being prepared, including financially. But steve/Jupitor and others that troll these forums, stop blaming everyone else for your failures, because you couldn't cut it or didn't put in the work to be prepared.

 

[jupitor88]

I'm not mad at anyone. But you're a retarded moron. I didn't say play more than 45 minutes. Read it again you idiot! I said I WOULDN'T play more than 1 shoe/shuffle. Go back to pretending you're going to crush 9/6 JoB!

who da fuck is playing a positive game 9/6? is your name boby dancer? no i dont play 99.54 get your shit together Mr retard i play only positive VP and real poker alright? so go back where you came from with your twisted facts =/

 

[jupitor88]

I'm not mad at anyone. But you're a retarded moron. I didn't say play more than 45 minutes. Read it again you idiot! I said I WOULDN'T play more than 1 shoe/shuffle. Go back to pretending you're going to crush 9/6 JoB!

one shoe one shuffle is the fucking same thing as 45minutes ok well maybe 20minutes if 3 heads at the table. i swear you never played BJ21 in a casino

 

[jupitor88]

ya hear that Johnny? it could take you as much as 3 years like KJ if you run bad like him ARE YOU PREPARED!?!?!? and you could just go broke in the process me, Larry and KJ aren't the ones losing our bankrolls to the house so we have no reason to be upset, what i was upset about is again the media, the websites, the blackjackschools that ben and colin produce, the books, the movies everything and i can actually speak my mind towards the jerk players such as KJ or Larry who claim to be Mr know it all who beat the game of BJ who owned it and then give there advice on Johnny boy well sir it pisses me off as american gambler that you enticed him and pissed me off our Johnny didn't prepare better enough for a 20grand losing streak

im not mad at the name calling from the 7 headed dragons on this site but once Johnny blows through his entire BR theres gonna come Jimmy with his BR maybe not today maybe not tomorrow but sometime in the future and thats the true victim in these forums, as for ZK that man sounds like hes making a profit just not as big as he wants =/

 

[JohnCrover]

It took me 3 years at the beginning of my career to grow my bankroll from $4300 to $10,000. Three years! It took that long because I didn't hit some sort of great win streak.

Weren't you also paying $800 arent in a month during that time period? Not busting under those conditions is fortunate.