odds of getting a blackjack by count?

[Cardcounter]

I know that the odds of getting a blackjack off the top of the deck are approxiamately 21 to 1. What I don't know is the odd of getting a blackjack in a positive or negative count. The odds of getting a blackjack in a plus one count are better than 21 to one. The odds in a plus 5 count are even better. The cal-neva is so paranoid about it that they won't let you bet a side bet that pays 17 to 1 for a blackjack after the first hand of the deck.

 

[paddywhack]

I know that the odds of getting a blackjack off the top of the deck are approxiamately 21 to 1. What I don't know is the odd of getting a blackjack in a positive or negative count. The odds of getting a blackjack in a plus one count are better than 21 to one. The odds in a plus 5 count are even better.

I know this has to be true, but could someone please explain the hoard of table min BJ's I get in a neg or neutral shoe and the FEW i get when the count is through the roof?? :laugh::laugh: :flame::whip::devil:

 

[Shoofly]

I know this has to be true, but could someone please explain the hoard of table min BJ's I get in a neg or neutral shoe and the FEW i get when the count is through the roof?? :laugh::laugh: :flame::whip::devil:

Just as bad, the count comes down from the roof, lower bet, then comes the BJ. Mixed emotions. Glad to get the BJ, but what did I do to piss off the variance gods that they wouldn't give me the snapper a couple of hands ago.

 

[rrwoods]

I know this has to be true, but could someone please explain the hoard of table min BJ's I get in a neg or neutral shoe and the FEW i get when the count is through the roof?? :laugh::laugh: :flame::whip::devil:

That's called [confirmation bias | variance].

... Or both.

 

[QFIT]

I know that the odds of getting a blackjack off the top of the deck are approxiamately 21 to 1. What I don't know is the odd of getting a blackjack in a positive or negative count. The odds of getting a blackjack in a plus one count are better than 21 to one. The odds in a plus 5 count are even better. The cal-neva is so paranoid about it that they won't let you bet a side bet that pays 17 to 1 for a blackjack after the first hand of the deck.

See Modern Blackjack page 369.

 

[Homeschool]

The cal-neva is so paranoid about it that they won't let you bet a side bet that pays 17 to 1 for a blackjack after the first hand of the deck.

Do you mean they wont let you jump in on the side bet once the first hand is played, or the side bet is allowed on the first hand only? If it's for only the first hand what's the point of even offering it?


Homeschool

 

[jack.jackson]

I know that the odds of getting a blackjack off the top of the deck are approxiamately 21 to 1. What I don't know is the odd of getting a blackjack in a positive or negative count. The odds of getting a blackjack in a plus one count are better than 21 to one. The odds in a plus 5 count are even better. The cal-neva is so paranoid about it that they won't let you bet a side bet that pays 17 to 1 for a blackjack after the first hand of the deck.

It would take a TC of +13 with ho2 to make this profitable. 100 divided by 5.89=1n16.98. Yes they are stupid. (About+7 with hi-lo)

 

[kewljason]

See Modern Blackjack page 369.

I sooo love it when Norm answers with a page #. Try this one norm. What is the meaning of life? :laugh:

 

[QFIT]

What is the meaning of life? :laugh:

The Meaning of Life is a movie by Monty Python.

As I quoted on page 7, "Kierkegaard said, 'Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.'”

When we get to the end, perhaps we'll undersand -- for the last second we have left.

 

[kewljason]

The Meaning of Life is a movie by Monty Python.

As I quoted on page 7, "Kierkegaard said, 'Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.'”

When we get to the end, perhaps we'll undersand -- for the last second we have left.

:laugh: You're great, norm. Yes, I forgot about Monty Python. What a classic!

 

[Sucker]

It would take a TC of +13 with ho2 to make this profitable. 5.89 divided by 100=1n16.98. Yes they are stupid. (About+7 with hi-lo)

For a 17-1 shot; the break-even point is one in 18, not 17. But they're STILL stupid for not allowing this on EVERY hand, rather than just off the top.

One reason is - it can be even BETTER for certain AP moves; in which your ONLY information comes "off the top". Now; you get to take advantage of EVs approaching 600% and NEVER have to make cover bets on the subsequent rounds!

 

[The Chaperone]

If they are susceptible to those higher level AP moves, they have bigger problems than the side bet.

I agree it's a waste to offer a side bet and then say you can only bet it off the top, but in fairness, I would crush that game if you could bet it whenever you wanted. It's not so much the TC, but the ace density as you go deeper in the pack.

Stupid side bet for both player and house. Complete waste of time. Final answer.

 

[21gunsalute]

I know this has to be true, but could someone please explain the hoard of table min BJ's I get in a neg or neutral shoe and the FEW i get when the count is through the roof?? :laugh::laugh: :flame::whip::devil:

You beat me to the punch.

 

[monte_vv]

I know this has to be true, but could someone please explain the hoard of table min BJ's I get in a neg or neutral shoe and the FEW i get when the count is through the roof?? :laugh::laugh: :flame::whip::devil:

Selective memory and the fact that you likely place more min bets, than any other bet amount.

 

[jack.jackson]

For a 17-1 shot; the break-even point is one in 18, not 17. But they're STILL stupid for not allowing this on EVERY hand, rather than just off the top.

One reason is - it can be even BETTER for certain AP moves; in which your ONLY information comes "off the top". Now; you get to take advantage of EVs approaching 600% and NEVER have to make cover bets on the subsequent rounds!

Thanks, for the low-down, i always enkoy your posts. I therefore guess, you would actually be able to make this bet a little lower than +13?

 

[paddywhack]

I know this has to be true, but could someone please explain the hoard of table min BJ's I get in a neg or neutral shoe and the FEW i get when the count is through the roof?? :laugh::laugh: :flame::whip::devil:

Ok, this was really said tongue in cheek, but you gotta wonder.

Selective memory and the fact that you likely place more min bets, than any other bet amount.

Oh I remember those blackjack alright, I whoop it up big time :laugh:

 

[pit15]

Lemme get this straight.

So if you make this sidebet off the top of the deck, can you continue making until you stop playing it?

Or is it off the top of the deck only regardless? If so, that's ****ing ridiculous