Odds of losing 20 hands in a row without any pushes?

B

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
Nightshifter said:
How would you exploit this?
Click to expand...
The following strategy is proposed by Three (Tthree). So the credit goes to him. If you have to play ASM BJ, you need to factor in if TC is rising or falling. The trend is easier to see if you play with two or three other players. Only when TC is high and falling (flat is OK), you bet and play normally like you used to. When TC is rising, you need to bet minimal or reduce spread even TC is high. Since the trend can be either rising, flat or falling, you might lose 25% to 40% opportunity to make money when ASM is not clumping in your session, but better be safe than sorry.
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
BJgenius007 said:
White rabbit. Sit out negative counts. Unless living in Las Vegas, most people only access to the few local casinos of theirs. Why not just tattoo I am a Counter on the forehead.
Click to expand...
Oh ok. I remember the white rabbit chapter in his book where he shared his experience huffing it up and down the boardwalk in AC. I never considered him "promoting" that style. :oops:

BUT, it seems pretty reasonable to me as I have come to play the same style. I decided that style was best for me and my circumstances when I moved to Vegas. But if I was unknowingly influenced by Don, more than I realize....that is ok too. ;)

So anyway what is this crap about after 2014 this style doesn't work? News to me. :oops:
 
N

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
So… so the mutual consensus here is to only play hand shuffled games ? Question turns out to be if the Shufflemaster is randomizing the cards or
putting them in an order that benefits the casino?

One could buy an MD3 but is it rigged the same as the one used by the majority of Casinos?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/284157440562?hash=item42291a7232:g:mfEAAOSwnZxgC3ut&amdata=enc:AQAGAAACYPYe5NmHp%2B2JMhMi7yxGiTJkPrKr5t53CooMSQt2orsSwcmzw5CLtzTE60FqHcnq2Fpf1zNpItFxN%2FnAoIFs3MhO1lkuq3UQUH1lVgoWrKV9%2FDoWTBlhokx%2BjnLd6ylaCIHC9L5ToTDm9NpjfUHvDs0TLDuvEXOKif8hBz9kFQ6kY9eR1Qn1eFn%2F6DvLmIy6sZyWt6zzMX%2FoNpsNymS8w8FYeOjAZShTvFrkNDdByAdjGloXmpdoM%2BUQVnOtDyGt0abi6yXDDyTzExnyPrfOA0Dwq7j8rhri0uM%2BJTimFkIYdZI%2BUss7Ebt8PltKrFtKf7rflgCLIMD7TYUNwjLHuT%2FPHwpqAfQWYVMUhha6oKqrchkf%2FWmFvy6lwTSogWVxeZTdIsksXuBQj9Imql2qDnZaozdYox3YSP0T4slIOCnQkzQ5uqB0iaL7ODSpLT560C9ivWOkDdGWp1fCoq0NBnzK3y1QnW1bQbL5WzGxtpkyaYnXOTw%2FZVfLjfduXrJH%2F6gfnDM7eXe8wjh8Mm%2FODUvuPTiXOKcS6KvHPOoSGP2SgFI9Ca7EesifPUg6%2FtqfT%2FXqTlcZ%2Fol8hbvCB9vrYt%2FqwEDu9YMxYHK8NFLerz7ZQ7FY8k9PSrUqQ%2BEZoY43aOnRx4BQgHPp0U0GY%2F1yptf9%2Fw4IOLDpAhUcNimD%2BSprHKqX31BNQd3QjKqK8Z9n4%2BQgxoVqsIROY266RcyF7Q%2Fa6sUIWe6vdoQ2ttWP1nOy4%2B1fPHOV%2BITiCjbrHsI5Ffl4X126WC0zaZzw7MPLrA%2BsA7x48X2dcuJhRd2F73Ed|clp:2334524|tkp:Bk9SR9DllZilXw
 
Last edited:
D

DSchles

Well-Known Member
BJgenius007 said:
I think Don is too busy selling his book and has never stepped into any casino in the past five or six years. By the way, the playing style he promotes in his book is only applicable before 2014. Since then, casinos are getting much smarter.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I really spend a great deal of my time selling my book. That's why royalties skyrocketed this quarter to $2.34 a day. It's because I was pounding the pavement drumming up those sales! What an utterly asinine statement to make. But I take it from whom it comes--someone who is ridiculed on every blackjack website for his conspiracy-theory nonsense about ASMs.

As for how much I've played in the past five or six years, how would you possibly profess to know that?

Bottom line: you don't have a clue.

Don
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
I really don't want to get into the shuffle machine cheating debate. I know there are some members here that I have great respect for that consider the topic conspiracy stuff. If you look into it....it isn't. I have run into machines that were capable of clumping cards on 3 occasions now, 2 before I looked into it and once since.

I purchased a machine online several years ago, not from ebay, but privately from someone in Asia. The machine arrived as it would from the factory and did not have a mode to shuffle into clumps that could be punched in by code that I was looking for, so that is not a factory setting. However a private programmer that I was put in touch with was able to hook the machine up to his laptop and in a few minutes the machine was able to clump cards as I was looking for. I call that "having the capability" to do so.

I am about the stupidest person in the fields of computers and programing, so I wouldn't be able to do it, but some of you probably could. I don't know how complex it is, but it only took the guy that did it on my machine a few minutes. I am quite sure most casinos have someone in their employ that would be capable of this.

Now would they? Do they? And/or how frequently? Those are entirely different questions, going down a completely different avenue. But the capability is unquestionably there. Once you accept that the capability is there.....and it is, then it is simply a matter of if you trust and have faith in this industry not to use it. :eek: Anyone remember the Mindplay fiasco? That was the casino industry intending to cheat and then lying about what the intent was.

Anyway, I guess I did get into the debate, so have at it.

And by the way, now several years removed from proving it to myself, I still play ASM's. The majority of games I play use ASM's including some of my better opportunities. What I have described above is not widespread (at least not of games I have played). I would use the term 'rare' as I have encountered it 3 times that I can say for sure and I play a lot. Here is what I live by at the moment. If you are playing a game regular that just doesn't feel right to you, find a different opportunity. But don't jump to the conclusion that every time you lose or see clumping, it is cheating. Card clumping does occur naturally.

But at some point it will start to occur more and more and casinos will get busted for it. I would feel more comfortable if the was a real casino commission looking out for this type of thing, instead of the commission we have here in Nevada that is almost in bed with the casino industry. When some casino does get busted there will be a relatively small fine and they will be told not to do that again. o_O
 
Last edited:
N

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
KewlJ said:
I really don't want to get into the shuffle machine cheating debate. I know there are some members here that I have great respect for that consider the topic conspiracy stuff. If you look into it....it isn't. I have run into machines that were capable of clumping cards on 3 occasions now, 2 before I looked into it and once since.

I purchased a machine online several years ago, not from ebay, but privately from someone in Asia. The machine arrived as it would from the factory and did not have a mode to shuffle into clumps that could be punched in by code that I was looking for, so that is not a factory setting. However a private programmer that I was put in touch with was able to hook the machine up to his laptop and in a few minutes the machine was able to clump cards as I was looking for. I call that "having the capability" to do so.

I am about the stupidest person in the fields of computers and programing, so I wouldn't be able to do it, but some of you probably could. I don't know how complex it is, but it only took the guy that did it on my machine a few minutes. I am quite sure most casinos have someone in their employ that would be capable of this.

Now would they? Do they? And/or how frequently? Those are entirely different questions, going down a completely different avenue. But the capability is unquestionably there. Once you accept that the capability is there.....and it is, then it is simply a matter of if you trust and have faith in this industry not to use it. :eek: Anyone remember the Mindplay fiasco? That was the casino industry intending to cheat and then lying about what the intent was.

Anyway, I guess I did get into the debate, so have at it.

And by the way, now several years removed from proving it to myself, I still play ASM's. The majority of games I play use ASM's including some of my better opportunities. What I have described above is not widespread (at least not of games I have played). I would use the term 'rare' as I have encountered it 3 times that I can say for sure and I play a lot. Here is what I live by at the moment. If you are playing a game regular that just doesn't feel right to you, find a different opportunity. But don't jump to the conclusion that every time you lose or see clumping, it is cheating. Card clumping does occur naturally.

But at some point it will start to occur more and more and casinos will get busted for it. I would feel more comfortable if the was a real casino commission looking out for this type of thing, instead of the commission we have here in Nevada that is almost in bed with the casino industry. When some casino does get busted there will be a relatively small fine and they will be told not to do that again. o_O
Click to expand...

Well said there KewlJ! Now as for tribal casinos with tribal oversight (NIGC), I bet it's more prevalent than one would realize! The count does reach extreme minus or extreme plus more than usual. I've had ~-31 on several occasions at the same table. The mind play you refer to is still being implemented at Harrah's Casino over here :/ Also... if you don't have an ID or Casino Club Card... you can't play 2 Deck Blackjack.
 
L

LC Larry

Well-Known Member
These clumping stories are full of shit.

And that machine you bought from Asia was an aftermarket knockoff nothing like what shufflemaster made.
 
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
KewlJ said:
I purchased a machine online several years ago, not from ebay, but privately from someone in Asia. The machine arrived as it would from the factory
Click to expand...
LC Larry said:
And that machine you bought from Asia was an aftermarket knockoff nothing like what shufflemaster made.
Click to expand...
Exactly. KJ, unless you received the machine from Shufflemaster directly (which wouldn't be possible as they don't sell to individuals), how can you claim it being factory fresh?

I bought an Izod shirt from a street vendor on the corner of Canal and Broadway in NYC. It was factory fresh and only $10!
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
21forme said:
Exactly. KJ, unless you received the machine from Shufflemaster directly (which wouldn't be possible as they don't sell to individuals), how can you claim it being factory fresh?
Click to expand...
Did I claim the machine I took possession of was "factory fresh"? The reason I was seeking a machine was to determine what it was "capable of" not what the factory settings were. I think you are missing the point I am making. I am not looking to assign liability to Shufflemaster. They recognized the need to protect themselves, which is why the machines require an adjustment or slight reprogram to access that feature.

But the bigger issue is that this capability is there at all. That should concern every card counter and even every player. That means we (players) are once again at the mercy of casinos when they someday say "yes the machines have that capability (with a reprogram) but we would never do that or use that". Hasn't the casino industry proven they will stoop to almost any level, time and time again?

While I am not assigning liability to Shufflemaster, I will publicly assign blame. The ability to 'read' the cards should have never been part of these machines. Then there would be no possibility of placing cards in any desired order. These machines were supposed to be about shuffling. There is no reason they needed to 'read' the cards. They could have still counted the cards and alerted to a missing card or two.

It is that reading of the cards that is the problem and opened a door that didn't need to be opened.
 
Last edited:
2

21forme

Well-Known Member
I'll give you that you didn't exactly say "factory fresh," but this is what you said, which is essentially the same thing:

KewlJ said:
The machine arrived as it would from the factory
Click to expand...
How do you know it was even a true Shufflemaster machine and not a Chinese counterfeit?

I do agree with you that the ability to read card values should not exist in these machines.
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
Saying "the machine arrived as it would from the factory" was indeed a bad choice of words. What I was trying to convey was that this clumping feature is not a factory set feature accessible only with a code without the re-programing of the machine. When I first encountered these machines, I assumed that they actually came with this feature programmed in. I may have even suggested that and I was wrong. That is the kind of info I wanted to learn and confirm for myself.

But as I said, in my mind, that distinction is minor. These machines have that "capability" specifically due to the card readers, and that is a problem.

I hate to even get into this discussion because then people come out of the woodwork with all kinds of claims. This isn't widespread, at least from my experience of where I play. Every time someone loses or loses big, they shouldn't jump to the conclusion that they are being cheated. But experienced players might want to rely on their gut instinct.

Here are the tell tale signs: almost every shoe or times through the cards has at some point a count of +4/+5 or -4/-5. As card counters we are all familiar with playing through many shoes, even MOST shoes that don't move much from zero. Maybe to +1, +2, or -1, -2. That is actually one of the frustrating parts of card counting. With this machine pre-arranged clumping, you will see a count of +4 or more, or -4 or less almost every shoe or time through the cards depending on just when the high card clump comes out.

The second thing you will notice is that high card clump is only 10 value cards. The aces are not in that clumps. You will just see a couple rounds of a lot of 20's (often pushing the dealer's 20). This will result in fewer blackjacks which as you know is a big part of a card counter's advantage. If you count up the blackjacks you see, you will see that they are far fewer than 1 in every 20 or 21 hands.

It is not cheating like removing cards, but it is still cheating in that it increases the house advantage.
 
Last edited:
N

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
I agree the Shuffle Master doesn't need to read the cards unless they need to be put back in order to use again, but the casinos don't do that... at least the casinos I've been in.... They always introduce new decks of cards in which some don't wash... just tossing them into the black box :/

"To help unlock your pit’s earning potential..." is on SG Gaming's website for the Shuffle Master. So what is meant by 'unlock' :) The potential for card manipulation is inherent in the design no doubt, and who is to say if some casinos will exploit this feature to increase the drop :) When you see 3 or more rounds of low cards mixed with aces and exempt of 10 value cards shoe after shoe... it makes you wonder. This is what was happening time & time again during my sessions. I can only speak for the tribal casinos here... haven't been to Vegas in a while.... I didn't like the fact that one casino in particular didn't even wash the cards prior to putting them into the Shuffle Master. If you just do one riffle on a new deck of cards, you're combining a lot of like value cards together....
 
Last edited:
N

Nightshifter

Well-Known Member
Wow… Dropped another 900 within one shoe (8deck). I only Won 3 hands and pushed once. Betting 25 per hand playing basic strategy and not betting with the count (flat betting). Same scenario… getting a lot of stiffs and dealer drawing to 21 numerous times. Last hand was my 17 to the dealers A,6 then hits with a 4! Yeah think I hit my loss limit for this year. if I were betting with the count, I would of lost a lot more because all the near max bets would had lost.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top