one quarter kelley
- Thread starter bnoc848
- Start date
It's simple. Full Kelly is betting the same percent of your bankroll as your percent advantage. So if you have a 1% advantage you bet 1% of your bankroll on that hand.bnoc848 said:
Now to turn that into quarter kelly, when you have a 1% advantage you would bet 1/4% of your bankroll on the hand.
You have to know what your advantage is at every TC. If you're using 1/4 kelly and your TC tells you that you have a 1% advantage, then you bet 1/4 of 1% of your bankroll, which is .25% of your bankroll.bnoc848 said:
To figure out how much .25% of your bankroll is, take your bankroll multiplied by .0025. OR you can take your bankroll times .01 and divide that number by 4 if that is easier for you.
One more example to make sure you get it. Assume you have a bankroll of 5000. Let's say you determined that you have a 3% advantage. To determine your bet using full kelly you take your bankroll (5000) times .03 which is 150. So 150 is your full kelly bet. Since you want to use 1/4 kelly you take 150 and divide it by 4, which would give you a bet of 37.50 at an advantage of 3%.
zengrifter
Banned
For BJ full kelly is .75% of your advantage, to allow for splits/doubles. For 1/4 K I would just round to .20%. I think BNOC is trying to calc his bets based on "replenishable BR". zgScottH said:
Ps - this forum is for NON-COUNTING-RELATED systems.
This is what this section is for. "Discuss betting strategies other than card counting." The key words are "other than card counting". Kelly betting is a card counting related betting strategy.bnoc848 said:
This forum is for betting strategies that dont use card counting, such as progressions.
Sonny
Well-Known Member
Don't forget about the variance!ScottH said:
It should be (Bankroll * EV) / Var. The variance is usually around 1.34 units at most counts. With a 3% advantage and a $5k bankroll the correct "Kelly" bet would be closer to $112, not $150. For Quarter-Kelly that would be about $28.Although technically you are right. That has always been a big gripe of mine. :flame: The real formula for Kelly betting was not designed to work for BJ (or gambling at all, although the original paper did use a horse racing analogy) so we have to "tweak" it quite a bit in order to make it work. In my opinion we should give the formula above a new name since it is not the same formula as "true" Kelly (which Scott correctly stated as Bankroll * EV).
-Sonny-
zengrifter
Banned
Lets call it "BJKelly" (sounds like a hooker I know) or BJK. 1/4BJK, etc. zgSonny said:Don't forget about the variance!
Although technically you are right. That has always been a big gripe of mine. :flame: The real formula for Kelly betting was not designed to work for BJ (or gambling at all, although the original paper did use a horse racing analogy) so we have to "tweak" it quite a bit in order to make it work. In my opinion we should give the formula above a new name since it is not the same formula as "true" Kelly (which Scott correctly stated as Bankroll * EV).
Sonny
Well-Known Member
I never noticed that before! I should read those descriptions more carefully. I always assumed this forum was for legit strategies. I guess that explains why there are so many progressions posts on here.ScottH said:
It seems strange that we would have a section for that since we spend so much time trying to discourage those sort of reckless betting habbits.-Sonny-