I've never played BJ in a casino, however, I've been thinking about how I should approach the game when I have the chance to play. However, even then, I don't expect to be playing a lot - maybe one weekend a year. I don't mind necessarily that the house has a very slight edge, however, I do want to use some strategy to minimize the house edge as much as possible while minimizing fluctuation in bankrole to the extent feasible.
So, how should I approach the game? I don't think I should count cards and play a 1:10 spread at a $25 minimum table. So there are three strategic areas I'm considering:
1) Are there any double-down plays that have such a small increase in expected gain that should not be made in the interest of minimizing bankroll fluctuation? For example, while it may be correct per basic strategy to double-down on a 9 versus a dealer 3 in a six-deck shoe, is the gain in advantage so small, that perhaps I should pass on this on other similar plays to minimize bankrole fluctuation, with the tradeoff that I give a slightly greater advanage to the house?
2) How could card counting be used to alter basic strategy? For example, by my calculations, the expected increase in return from hitting a hard 16 versus a dealer 10 is very small. Also, by my rough estimate, somewhere between 20% to 25% of hands will have a hard 16 versus dealer 10 at some point during the hand. It seems that there is great potential to devise a counting strategy specific to making the decision to stand on 16 versus a 10.
Interesting side-note: If one is trying to devise an optimal counting strategy specifically for making the decision about standing on 16 vs. a 10, my simulations show that ace should count as a low card, not a high card as in hi-low. Also, not unexpectedly a higher prevalence of 6's would encourage the player to stand on 16, however, 7's go the other way. In general, it looks like a higher prevalence of Ace through 5 and 7's would warrent hitting a 16, and a higher prevalence of 6's, 9's, and 10's would warrent standing. 8's appeared be fairly neutral.
3) Given that I'm not counting cards for purposes of altering my bets but with the intent of altering basic strategy, would it be more advantagous to play maybe a 2-deck game vs 6 decks?
Any thoughts on my general logic? Can anyone point me to any sources that discuss optimal strategies for flat betters?
So, how should I approach the game? I don't think I should count cards and play a 1:10 spread at a $25 minimum table. So there are three strategic areas I'm considering:
1) Are there any double-down plays that have such a small increase in expected gain that should not be made in the interest of minimizing bankroll fluctuation? For example, while it may be correct per basic strategy to double-down on a 9 versus a dealer 3 in a six-deck shoe, is the gain in advantage so small, that perhaps I should pass on this on other similar plays to minimize bankrole fluctuation, with the tradeoff that I give a slightly greater advanage to the house?
2) How could card counting be used to alter basic strategy? For example, by my calculations, the expected increase in return from hitting a hard 16 versus a dealer 10 is very small. Also, by my rough estimate, somewhere between 20% to 25% of hands will have a hard 16 versus dealer 10 at some point during the hand. It seems that there is great potential to devise a counting strategy specific to making the decision to stand on 16 versus a 10.
Interesting side-note: If one is trying to devise an optimal counting strategy specifically for making the decision about standing on 16 vs. a 10, my simulations show that ace should count as a low card, not a high card as in hi-low. Also, not unexpectedly a higher prevalence of 6's would encourage the player to stand on 16, however, 7's go the other way. In general, it looks like a higher prevalence of Ace through 5 and 7's would warrent hitting a 16, and a higher prevalence of 6's, 9's, and 10's would warrent standing. 8's appeared be fairly neutral.
3) Given that I'm not counting cards for purposes of altering my bets but with the intent of altering basic strategy, would it be more advantagous to play maybe a 2-deck game vs 6 decks?
Any thoughts on my general logic? Can anyone point me to any sources that discuss optimal strategies for flat betters?