Penetration - why does it matter?

[DoubleFiddle]

The more I study card counting, the more I read complaints about casinos with "unfavorable penetration" (particularly shoe-games).....Could someone please explain to me why a 6-deck shoe with 50% penetration is disadvantageous to a counter???

Will I only win a negligable amount at these games?.....i.e. Will I have to increase the size of my bankroll and my average bet to compensate for lost edge due to shallow penetration?

I realize I'm ignorant in this matter.....But I'll try using layman's logic for a moment...

I would have guessed that an advantage player's edge is NOT affected by the amount of deck that is unused....Because ALL the cards being factored into the math of 6-deck Basic Strategy are physically PRESENT, whether they become introduced into play or not!

(Isn't it the same concept as 'unkown hole cards' in Poker? --- You don't worry about the value of opponent's starting hands when you're calculating pot odds, etc.)

Say we assume shallow penetration (or using exactly 1/2 a shoe) is BAD for the advantage player....Wouldn't the act of interrupting a shoe game halfway that had "favorable" penetration by GETTING UP from the table (or 'Wonging-out') have the SAME EFFECT as playing out a the same 6-deck shoe with a 50% pen.!! If we've played through the same number of cards, how can a little plastic slug make a difference??

I've also read that many counters switch tables (or casinos) on a regular basis simply to avoid heat....So, then, are these table-hopping players hurting their edge by not sticking it out and playing through each shoe with 80% + penetration? Even if they leave when the true count is 0??

Ok, i'm done.
Thanks in advance.....I'm kinda baffled by this one.

DoubleFiddle

 

[Mikeaber]

Doublefiddle, I'll take a stab at this and depend on those more knowledgeable than I to refine it.

Shallow pen exacerbates a fear of the unknown to the advantage player.

If the entire deck was dealt out, the the advantage player would KNOW that all cards would come into play. With decreasing pen, there are MORE cards that are not going to come into play (behind the cut card). Those cards that are "unknown" quantities. If they are "high cards" then those in play are going to be essentially "low" in value and cause high counts which would lead advantage players into making large bets when in reality, the likelihood is that they are going to continue drawing low cards when they have the big bets out there.

It should even out in the long run, but it doesn't take much of a long run to ruin a player making large bets when the odds are against him.

Advantage players are wanting to get money on the table when it is most likely that they are going to win. If the count goes high, they ride the wave and get as much on the table as possible. When it goes low, they are not going to be winning much even if they are winning the hands because they will have small bets out there at that time. So, it is wise for them to leave the table in search of another table with a high count. They are not losing advantage by leaving. They are avoiding losing the low value bets.

Okay, I've given you my drug induced dissertation on advantage play. I'll now lay me down and count butterflies and pink elephants. Possibly in a couple of hours, I'll come back and edit this message to tell you and the world "I don't know." :laugh:

 

[Canceler]

Short answer

The deeper the pen, the more hands you get to play at an advantage.

 

[Canceler]

DoubleFiddle-

You do realize that you're supposed to bet more during high counts, right? Sure, the good cards might come out during the first half of the shoe, and you'll probably win during that time. But you won't win much, because you're betting low because the count is low, or if you wonged out, you're gone.

So, suppose the count is high, you have the advantage, and you have your max bet out. What do you want to do next?

(A) Play several more rounds.

(B) Have a shuffle.

Hint: If you pick (B), or think that (A) and (B) are equally preferable, then you have a vast misunderstanding of how this whole card counting thing works. Which I'm starting to think is the case.

 

[DoubleFiddle]

Okay, I was WRONG!

Okay, I was WRONG about this one....But I've answered my own question by visiting the pages at GameMaster's Blackjack school (which are also posted at Sanford Wong's BJ21 site.)

----------------------------------------
SO HERE'S HOW IT WORKS:
(from The GameMaster) Found at:
(Dead link: http://bj21.com/gamemaster/gamemasterclassics11.shtml)

Effect of Deck Penetration
How far the dealer goes into the deck(s) before shuffling can have a major effect on your winnings. The reason is that with a shallow penetration, the 'high' counts which enable you to bet more occur less often in decks where the shuffle comes early. The table below shows how often counts will occur on a percentage basis at varying degrees of penetration.

Percent Occurrence at...

(1st # is True Count, then percentage of occurence at 50, 65, 75, & 85% penetration
TC= +1 15, 15, 13, 13
TC= +2 8, 7, 8, 8
TC= +3 3, 4, 4, 5
TC= +4 1.5, 2.5, 3, 4
TC= +5 1, 1, 2, 2,
TC= +6 .5, 1, 2, 2,
TC= +7 0, .5, 1, 1.5
TC= +8 0, 0, .5, 1
TC= +9 0, 0, 0, .5
TC= +10 0, 0, 0, .5

Let's examine what I'm trying to say here. If you play at a game with only 50% penetration, out of every 100 hands, only 29 will have, on average, a true count of 1 or better. Since it requires a true count of 1 to get even with the house, only 14 will be hands on which you have an advantage. Now look at the stats for a game with 85% penetration. Here, about 37.5% of the hands will be at breakeven or better and almost a quarter will be hands on which you have an advantage.

YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME AND MONEY IF YOU PLAY AT A GAME WITH LESS THAN 65% PENETRATION.

Even if a game doesn't offer the best rules, it can still be beaten if good penetration is available. Remember that you should leave a game when the count drops below a true of minus 1 so that you spend most of your playing time making bets in what I call the 'profit zone.'
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(end of excerpt)

------ So, I guess what I've learned is that the 6-decks w/ 50% penetration at my local casino SUCKS!! (for advantage players) --- because while the true count may still rise, it won't rise NEARLY as high on average as it would in a shoe game with 75-85% pen....

....time to take a trip to Tunica & play some 1-Deck!

DF