Percentage In Favor Of Dealer

[Cass]

Even if you have a really high ROR, if you're playing with the advantage, in the long run you'll come out ahead.

I disagree. I think it is very important to not go bust during a playing session. If you get too low on chips, you might not be able to play the hands properly. you may end up leaving on a positive shoe. For my first 100 hours or so as a counter I went bust a few times leaving the casino down 1,000's of dollars. My overall results were that I was even money. When i think back, i'm confident I would be up money over the first 100hrs overall if I would have never went bust. If I could have continued playing thru the Negative deviation I could have came out on top or cut my losses instead of having to leave at my lowest point of the night. Since then I make sure i bring enough money to withstand any fluctuations that come my way. Over the past 20-30 hours i'm up over 10k. I know the math may not support this, but I just think it is important not to go bust in a session.

 

[Cass]

Think of it like this-

Lets say your trip br is $1000 and your minimum bet is $500. If you have anything over $1000 you are going to bet 50% of your BR. Assume no table limits and assume you always have a 1% advantage. You would Never come out ahead because it is inevitable that you would lose a few hands in a row and go bust due to overbetting even though you have a theoretical advantage.

 

[gobbledygeek]

This idea is akin to a lesson I learned early on while playing limit texas hold'em: always make sure you have enough money on the table to cover the maximum amount of betting for the round (thus preventing an "all-in" in the limit game). Nothing like going "all-in" in limit when you've flopped the nuts only to sit there and not be able to raise the hand! Hurts the EV big time!

 

[ScottH]

I disagree. I think it is very important to not go bust during a playing session. If you get too low on chips, you might not be able to play the hands properly. you may end up leaving on a positive shoe. For my first 100 hours or so as a counter I went bust a few times leaving the casino down 1,000's of dollars. My overall results were that I was even money. When i think back, i'm confident I would be up money over the first 100hrs overall if I would have never went bust. If I could have continued playing thru the Negative deviation I could have came out on top or cut my losses instead of having to leave at my lowest point of the night. Since then I make sure i bring enough money to withstand any fluctuations that come my way. Over the past 20-30 hours i'm up over 10k. I know the math may not support this, but I just think it is important not to go bust in a session.

I agree with you that it is important to have enough money for the entire session. I was just saying that theoretically if you are playing with an advantage you expect to make money, no matter what your ROR is. Even if you had a 99% ROR, if you're playing with a 1% advantage you expect to make 1% of all your bets, even though you will probably lose everything. I definitely wasn't recomending anyone play with a high ROR, I was just answering his question.

So everyone listen to Cass and make sure you have enough money to last through your session! I normally bring 500 to the casino, but at Cass' recomendation I brought more to lower my ROR. During that session I was down over 500 dollars, and I would have been done. But since I had more money I was able to win it all back! The swings can be pretty crazy in the game, so you have to make sure you have enough money to handle the negative swings, in order to last long enough to see the positive ones!

 

[dacium]

I think the problem here is 0.50% is only the edge one one AVERAGE hand, or infinity hands. You can't say 0.50% = 50c at a 100$ bet, so you should last 2,000 hands at 10$.

If you have infinite bank roll, after 2,000 hands on average you will have lost 1,000$. As 1,000$ is much less than infinity, on average you will bust out after ALOT lLESS than 2,000 hands.

I will run some simulations on a random number generator that selects either WIN/LOOSe at the odds of 50.5% and 49.5% now as im to drunk to work out the exact maths,and see how many hands it takes to bomb out from 1,000$ making 100$ bets.

 

[dacium]

OK i did the simulation the average hands before being knocked out on 0.5% with $1,000 playing $100 bets was about 500. In real blackjack withdoubleing and spliting it would be even lower than this.

 

[Sonny]

I will run some simulations on a random number generator that selects either WIN/LOOSe at the odds of 50.5% and 49.5% now as im to drunk to work out the exact maths,and see how many hands it takes to bomb out from 1,000$ making 100$ bets.

Actually, the W/L/T percentages should be closer to 43%, 49% and 8% respectively. Also, the fact that you are not simulating pushes, splits, doubles, insurance, or surrender will affect your results.

A more accurate way would be to use a trip ROR formula for the number of hands (or hours) you are expecting to play, then work out a reasonable ROR for that amout of time. That way you can accurately estimate your BR requirements for a single trip or session.

-Sonny-