QFIT said:
How you could possibly come to such an odd conclusion, and be "certain" of it, is beyond me.
What I do is determine, to the best of my ability, the probability of outcomes. I am neither talking about mathematics nor the gambling field in particular. I am talking about looking at human dynamics in complex situations and balancing the possible upsides and downsides of various actions. Humans are always the largest variable, not simple math. Beating a casino is trivial in comparison to advancing in the corporate world. This is the basis of my professional life and how I have worked over decades in several fields. What I DON'T do, is make baseless assumptions about the lives of others and post them. I really wish you would refrain from posting wild speculations about people about which you know nothing.
Syph, if you wish to progress in the real world, please make an attempt to present your points without degrading others with gratuitous slights.
This, here, is exactly what curtails discussion, limits debate, and turns potentially valuable threads into pissing matches.
Someone's feelings were hurt. Dead stop. Do not pass
Go!, do not collect $200, go directly to jail. Feelings were hurt. And it's all about the feelings. The wounded child must be placated, appeased, nurtured, and treated with kitten gloves.
This is not the first time. I recall a post I made a while back regarding my encounters with professional players. I felt it would be of greater value for others than soothing Norm's tantrums. Alas, it was not to be. Inevitably, another gentleman on this forum stepped up to respond on my behalf, and the thread was locked. I had hoped to continue with my experiences with professionals in this field, but no dice. Feelings were hurt.
And it's all about the feelings.
More recently, I was discussing a simple, mechanical strategy I once used to turn $2K into $20K in the poker rooms. I still have records from that summer, I calculated the standard deviation, expectation, and risk for a given bankroll under specific conditions. I felt it might be of value to some members on this forum, particularly in light of the decidedly marginal returns the vast majority of enthusiasts here have reported in the polls. Alas, someone took offense. It became a personal matter. The strategy never got discussed, nor the the escalating value of the instrinsic advantages inherent in the short approach as one moves up in stakes
Now, we return to a topic I think may be of further value to others. I intended for the follow up posts to go into detail explaining why you won't succeed as an advantage player, why you are not a special snowflake, what others have done, and what you may try. In my experiences, success is less a matter of attitude, knowledge and skill, and more your response to a hardwired physiology that will betray you.
(and I don't care what social circles you move in)
For those interested, the discussion would have fallen along these lines:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/w-agora/view.php?bn=bjf_trading&key=1214083924&pattern=Taleb
I wrote about this years ago, and there are some new insights since then. But never mind, I know someone will feel slighted, personal offence will be taken, feelings will be hurt, and the discussion will be locked. A complaint has already been registered. It does not matter that my initial comment was, in fact, complimentary towards Norm, and a slight towards myself. That doesn't really fuel any righteous indignation. And in any event, no one wants to hear why there are only a handful of successful, full-time players in the world. We would rather close our eyes, bury our heads, and live out our Walter Mitty fantasies.
Personally, I think you can do better.
Best,
Syph