Playing a break-even game as cover?

[The Suburbs]

First time poster, relatively short-term lurker here. Want to first thank all the great posters on this board, as I've learned quite a bit in a short amount of time.

Here's the situation: I've been APing at a not-so-local (1 and 1/2 hour drive) store in the NE area for the past 8-10 months or so as a medium to heavy green-chipper. Have gotten in enough hours to be considered a semi-high roller and have done very well for myself. The comps I am currently offered are very generous (free rooms 2 nights/week weekends included, free shows, free food, free stuff, and more). Also, I've been very profitable in my playing time (part of it possibly due to positive variance).

More recently, I've been noticing a little more heat than usual from pit critters, mostly in the form of additional attention and some off-hand remarks. I play a rather aggressive spread using Hi-Lo, but try my best to come off as a gambler. Still, one can only rat-hole so much when betting heavy green. I'm pretty sure they have me on record as a substantial winner so far. In addition, I fit a decent profile of an AP (under-30 college-educated male, among other things).

Since this is really the only worthwhile place to play that's remotely close to me, I had an idea that will reduce the notional amount I would win, but may give me some more longevity: what if I split my sessions between playing a higher limit (sticking to medium-heavy green) break-even game with my player's card (+rat-holing) and a +EV red-chip game unrated? Since I'm pretty this store doesn't sweat red-chippers, this would help allow me to keep some the generous comps, but would lower the probability of getting backed-off. Hopefully, with the rat-holing, they would start seeing me as a losing player as well.

What are the possible risks/downsides for this strategy? I understand that I'll be making less, but I'm more interested in not getting backed-off/86ed at this point.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Midwestern]

what if I split my sessions between playing a higher limit (sticking to medium-heavy green) break-even game with my player's card (+rat-holing) and a +EV red-chip game unrated?

everyone's got their different reasons for playing! you enjoy the game, the extra cash is nice, but you have comps that you don't want to give up, and it sounds like you have fun with it. i see no problem with you playing red-chip unrated for profit and playing green chip for comps.

i think you figured it out for yourself, buddy!

im going to try some of that myself.

 

[blackjack avenger]

It's Really Bad

The bank needed for a break even game is infinite, as in you will go broke. Playing small to win won't help much.

Perhaps slowing down your green action, don't follow that bet ramp to closely.

$5 until you get to double $75s
then
$25 to double $75s
Once you show large green action, stick to green.

with some modest wong ins and outs.

Don't make a bet that gets checks play called.

reverse your bet ramp at times, let bet ride, progression with red chips, do evvvvverything as long as it's bigger bets when positive.

Don't you play to make money?

 

[Dyepaintball12]

That may appear confusing to the pit crew. If you come in sometimes and give your card and spread $25-$400 but then sometimes don't give a card and spread $5-50, they may be like WTF is this kid up to.

If you keep ratholing chips to the point that your pockets are full, just wong out of your game and covertly sneak over to the cage and cash them out. Works for me all the time.

- Dye

 

[blackjack avenger]

From AP to Gambler in One Easy Step

Take a step back from the precipice

So this place comps you a room and food. I think you probably have a home with food in it, you are proposing driving 3 hrs and risking thousands of dollars so they can provide you with what you already have?

If anyone runs a sim with a slight advantage, pennies an hour. They will probably see a NO of over 10,000,000. This makes you a gambler!

If you run a sim given a ror and bank you will see that the bank needed for a chunky green tiny advantage game is huuuuuge. In order to keep the same ror you have now, you will have to bet much, much less. Which will drop the comp level you are greatly overvaluing.

For a break even game the bank requirements are infinite!

For a tiny advantage game the bank requirements are near infinite!

Let's do an EV breakdown:
Play 4 hours at red to make approx $5 an hour?
So you will make $20
Play 1 hour break even.
So you will make $4 an hour overall, with crushing; as in go broke, variance.

90 mile drive one way? The cost in depreciation of your car including gas is about $45.

Let's add it up
-$90 in expenses for the drive both ways
+$20 in ev
___________
-$25 ev while the variance destroys your bank

Given the time required to drive, go less often but play to win. Throw in some -ev camo if you wish.

Most AP's like to keep positive variance; all you have done, and don't look to give it back!

 

[moo321]

Never play a breakeven game. Just use a smaller spread and wong out more.

 

[James81]

You should read chapter 20 in Uston's "Million Dollar Blackjack". He specifically addresses playing a break-even game for comps. Some of the info is a bit dated (he suggests playing only good single deck games, which are now near-impossible to find), but it certainly is a possibility.

Obviously, you'd have to have a huge bankroll to weather the swings of a break-even game.

 

[BJgenius007]

You should read chapter 20 in Uston's "Million Dollar Blackjack". He specifically addresses playing a break-even game for comps. Some of the info is a bit dated (he suggests playing only good single deck games, which are now near-impossible to find), but it certainly is a possibility.

Obviously, you'd have to have a huge bankroll to weather the swings of a break-even game.

Why are you so wise for your first post?

 

[James81]

Like The Suburbs, I'm long time lurker in this great little community. And since I've learned so much from from you guys, I thought I'd start chiming in myself.

 

[aslan]

Take a step back from the precipice

So this place comps you a room and food. I think you probably have a home with food in it, you are proposing driving 3 hrs and risking thousands of dollars so they can provide you with what you already have?

If anyone runs a sim with a slight advantage, pennies an hour. They will probably see a NO of over 10,000,000. This makes you a gambler!

If you run a sim given a ror and bank you will see that the bank needed for a chunky green tiny advantage game is huuuuuge. In order to keep the same ror you have now, you will have to bet much, much less. Which will drop the comp level you are greatly overvaluing.

For a break even game the bank requirements are infinite!

For a tiny advantage game the bank requirements are near infinite!

Let's do an EV breakdown:
Play 4 hours at red to make approx $5 an hour?
So you will make $20
Play 1 hour break even.
So you will make $4 an hour overall, with crushing; as in go broke, variance.

90 mile drive one way? The cost in depreciation of your car including gas is about $45.

Let's add it up
-$90 in expenses for the drive both ways
+$20 in ev
___________
-$25 ev while the variance destroys your bank

Given the time required to drive, go less often but play to win. Throw in some -ev camo if you wish.

Most AP's like to keep positive variance; all you have done, and don't look to give it back!

I know I am only speaking from limited experience and nothing simmed, but doesn't the risk of a break/even game depend on the method by which you achieve the break/even result? I mean, it seems to me that the wide swings in variance are mainly a function of jumping to max bet in positive counts where if you are unlucky (and after all, you still will only win 44% of your hands) you may lose big time, whereas if you are spreading small, but still applying perfect BS and index play as well as wonging out at the appropriate times, you will not get the largeness of swings engendered by max bet of 10 to 20 times. I have done this repeatedly for quite some time, although I try to keep it more than just a break/even game, with the result of more secure longevity and the ability to pounce on sweet and early plus counts on occasion with large betting spreads.

Another alternative to achieve longevity is to play your normal advantage game but to give up EV for cover in the appropriate spots. I won't say how to do this (it's a trade secret), but it is apparent that you must disguise the fact that you only raise your bet in positive counts, keeping in mind the Biblical admonition, "A kingdom divided against itself cannot stand."

The biggest thing I have found with playing for longevity is making sure the game you are trying to preserve is really worth the effort. If you are getting weak pen, I don't care how good the rules are, a mostly break/even game will kill you (it will even kill many an otherwise advantage game). With great pen (there are guidelines, but I don't think we should be telling industry what they are), I don't care how bad the rules are (I'm exaggerating), I will do whatever I can to avoid being backed off, because those occasions of early and sweet plus counts come a lot more often, and make all the cover play worth the wait. Poor pen means blowing your money waiting for a rare good count (if it ever comes at all) where you will not even get back to even. Great pen means holding your own until that great count comes that spells big gains.

What you do after that requires a course in AP 402, since your AP game has now been exposed. If you stick around you need to know how to handle heat, real or assumed, without giving away the store. These methods are deeply held secrets known only to 32nd degree APs (not really, but I'm not telling what I know, and most of you already know anyway-- I hope). If you leave after the big win, you may have ruined your future game at this store, unless you don't plan to return for a while. Hit an run, I believe only works well when you don't frequent a place too much. If you do three hit and runs in the same casino on the same day for sizable amounts and get away with it, you may have found the fabled goose that lays golden eggs. If you know of such a place, please PM me-- I promise not to tell another soul.

 

[Tarzan]

Cover play

I see things on here that alarm me sometimes, things like "Well, I have been an "AP" for about 6 months now and maybe I should play some craps or something as cover play (since I have scored a whopping $3.17 an hour because although I usually slap chunky red out there sometimes I get crazy with a great count and bet a green one!)" and stuff like this. I can only hope that with experience a little reality is going to set in first of all. A little grim reality was thrown out there in the previous posts and I hope it sinks in. Betting "chunky green" still allows NO room for any "cover play", "break even play" or anything else like that if you want to be profitable in the long run.

I've stated before that these days, the rules and procedures are worked right in that "countermeasures" are now built right into the game. You are overly paranoid to think that a casino is too terribly concerned about you scraping out a pathetically small measure ahead. They have recreational players not counting, not even playing proper basic strategy betting HUGE and winning like crazy... they think nothing of it. Just take a stroll through some of the higher end tables in Caesars or Harrahs and watch the action a bit. Fortunes are won, lost, traded back and forth all day long so do you really think they could be bothered with your piddly assed short stack of green going out there that you need to add in some sort of "break even play", "cover play" or anything like that? Not hardly and such sillyness is going to insure you are a loser in the long run.

Laughlin is an example of where they may look at you funny if you bet green because of the generally low stakes so... does this mean that out of the whopping $2.37 an hour you make there tossing a few red chips around you need to do a little cover play? No, it's not the most brilliant idea.

It's tight enough and difficult enough to turn any profit whatsoever giving it your best without doing something as lame as "cover play" for no particular good reason. I disagree with anyone that advocates any sort of cover play as it makes little difference in the grand scheme of things and will only cost you, quite possibly to the point of you not being profitable in the long run.

 

[aslan]

It's tight enough and difficult enough to turn any profit whatsoever giving it your best without doing something as lame as "cover play" for no particular good reason. I disagree with anyone that advocates any sort of cover play as it makes little difference in the grand scheme of things and will only cost you, quite possibly to the point of you not being profitable in the long run.

Not all cover costs money.

 

[Friendo]

Cold evaluation is best

Time is money, so any break-even play should be generating more positive expected value than the other things you could be doing. If you feel you can enhance your longevity enough through a certain number of hours of a break-even game, then run the numbers and figure out how much extra you'll be getting for those break-even hours. Keep in mind that the additional hours of advantage play you'll gain have a lower hourly rate because you're diluting advantage hours with break-even hours.

You can actually beat a break-even game if you have substantially more cash than the casino, because they'll have to throw in the towel before you will. Since you don't have that much money, you're just taking a walk backwards along your total hours line, adding variance without expected value, which is mathematically equivalent to switching to a game with a larger N0.

My problem is that it takes so many hours of blackjack to get the accumulated expectation bigger than the variance, that I don't see how a few hours at the pass line in craps would be convincing to the casino. If I feel I'm approaching the point of wearing out my welcome, I'll school myself in the arts of creating novelty IDs and setting up mail drops, which seems more lucrative than any break-even game. Another possibility: take a few months and learn other techniques.

 

[The Suburbs]

I see things on here that alarm me sometimes, things like "Well, I have been an "AP" for about 6 months now and maybe I should play some craps or something as cover play (since I have scored a whopping $3.17 an hour because although I usually slap chunky red out there sometimes I get crazy with a great count and bet a green one!)" and stuff like this. I can only hope that with experience a little reality is going to set in first of all. A little grim reality was thrown out there in the previous posts and I hope it sinks in. Betting "chunky green" still allows NO room for any "cover play", "break even play" or anything else like that if you want to be profitable in the long run.

I've stated before that these days, the rules and procedures are worked right in that "countermeasures" are now built right into the game. You are overly paranoid to think that a casino is too terribly concerned about you scraping out a pathetically small measure ahead. They have recreational players not counting, not even playing proper basic strategy betting HUGE and winning like crazy... they think nothing of it. Just take a stroll through some of the higher end tables in Caesars or Harrahs and watch the action a bit. Fortunes are won, lost, traded back and forth all day long so do you really think they could be bothered with your piddly assed short stack of green going out there that you need to add in some sort of "break even play", "cover play" or anything like that? Not hardly and such sillyness is going to insure you are a loser in the long run.

Laughlin is an example of where they may look at you funny if you bet green because of the generally low stakes so... does this mean that out of the whopping $2.37 an hour you make there tossing a few red chips around you need to do a little cover play? No, it's not the most brilliant idea.

It's tight enough and difficult enough to turn any profit whatsoever giving it your best without doing something as lame as "cover play" for no particular good reason. I disagree with anyone that advocates any sort of cover play as it makes little difference in the grand scheme of things and will only cost you, quite possibly to the point of you not being profitable in the long run.

While I haven't exactly approached the long-run yet (I've estimated my hands played the last 8 months at 23k), I'm within a standard deviation of my expected return (based on approximately a $100 average bet). This in itself helps give me comfort that I'm a winning player.

That being said, it ultimately gets harder and harder trying to mask four-figure wins (which are not uncommon when you're playing $25 units and spreading up to 20-1). One can only rat-hole so much, especially if I'm playing with red chip players.

Like I said, this is really the only store worth playing (think biggest store in the world) in the immediate area, so I'm much more concerned about longevity. If I was only scraping a few grand off them, I wouldn't have posted this.

 

[aslan]

Time is money, so any break-even play should be generating enough more positive expected value than the other things you could be doing. If you feel you can enhance your longevity enough through a certain number of hours of a break-even game, then run the numbers and figure out how much extra you'll be getting for those break-even hours. Keep in mind that the additional hours of advantage play you'll gain have a lower hourly rate because you're diluting advantage hours with break-even hours.

You can actually beat a break-even game if you have substantially more cash than the casino, because they'll have to throw in the towel before you will.

My problem is that it takes so many hours of blackjack to get the accumulated expectation bigger than the variance, that I don't see how a few hours at the pass line in craps would be convincing to the casino. If I feel I'm approaching the point of wearing out my welcome, I'll school myself in the arts of creating novelty IDs and setting up mail drops, which seems more lucrative than any break-even game. Another possibility: take a few months and learn other techniques.

There are reasons to want to play a particular game long. In a place where you constantly play, you cannot win a sizable amount three times in one day, quiting immediately each time, and not expect to get ID'ed and backed off. When the staff knows you, you have to employ a lot of different cover techniques, not all of them requiring a sacrifice of EV. The non-playing covers are very important, but not the subject of this thread. If I play a particular casino a lot, I cannot simply hit and run over and over, and expect to get away with it. The key word is "run", and I am not always willing to run. For example, this may be the only casino worth playing in a particular area. Or, this may be a game with exceptionally great pen, which may not be there tomorrow. Making a sizable win, then continuing to play on a near-break-even basis, with a few cover routines thrown in, has worked effectively for me. This combined with other non-cost covers has kept me in games where pros playing hit and run cannot expect to return any time soon.

Also, I do not want to make my play for raising my bet from one unit to 10 or 15 units when I see there is only one or two rounds left to play, so I may ignore the count altogether. Call me crazy, but I like to wait until I have the possibility of a long sustained plus count. Maybe a $25 player is automatically under the radar, I don't know. Most casinos probably don't care if you only win a thousand or two here and a thousand or two there. But the only time I was ever backed off was in a $10 game in Las Vegas, and I wasn't betting more than 4 or 5 times in a double deck game.

 

[aslan]

While I haven't exactly approached the long-run yet (I've estimated my hands played the last 8 months at 23k), I'm within a standard deviation of my expected return (based on approximately a $100 average bet). This in itself helps give me comfort that I'm a winning player.

That being said, it ultimately gets harder and harder trying to mask four-figure wins (which are not uncommon when you're playing $25 units and spreading up to 20-1). One can only rat-hole so much, especially if I'm playing with red chip players.

Like I said, this is really the only store worth playing (think biggest store in the world) in the immediate area, so I'm much more concerned about longevity. If I was only scraping a few grand off them, I wouldn't have posted this.

I believe Tarzan is talking from a professional point of view for persons who have the luxury of traveling from one casino to another, and not returning for a matter of weeks or even months. I absolutely agree with him in that light, but not for someone who is captive to a particular casino. You have to find ways to play that go beyond hit and run, which is by far the best method I know of. Longevity in a casino where you are well known requires a lot of cover, both in game playing strategies and in other more subtle forms of cover.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Can't We All Just *%&^$*(^% Calme Down!

It ultimately gets harder and harder trying to mask four-figure wins (which are not uncommon when you're playing $25 units and spreading up to 20-1). One can only rat-hole so much, especially if I'm playing with red chip players.

Like I said, this is really the only store worth playing (think biggest store in the world) in the immediate area, so I'm much more concerned about longevity.

20 to 1 spread is excessive when considering longevity, you will probably get very similar results with far less a spread. Especially if one wong's some.

Only store "worth" playing is not the same as the "only" store. The best camo is to spread play around.

Try not to play so much with red chip players.

or
Play maximum boldness but not that often.

Spread less, play more casinos!
or
bold infrequent play
or a combo of the 2 that you think will work while keeping in mind consistency of bet ramps is important for chasing the long run

 

[Tarzan]

This doesn't sound right

Okay, let me get this straight. You play green doing a 20 to 1 spread and do it alongside a bunch of people playing red, so you are playing at tables with horrible rules where you really stand out from the crowd and you are asking how to keep a lower profile?

 

[The Suburbs]

Okay, let me get this straight. You play green doing a 20 to 1 spread and do it alongside a bunch of people playing red, so you are playing at tables with horrible rules where you really stand out from the crowd and you are asking how to keep a lower profile?

I never said that I only play with red chip players. Seeing as how it's the largest store in the world, there are plenty of green/black chip ploppies. This helps, but it's not easy to ONLY play with other green chip players. I'd be giving up a lot of my EV if I only looked at games with other green chip players. Also, it's generally pretty busy there, so it's not too hard to blend into the crowd.

The rules at the store are actually very favorable (DA2, DAS, LS, S17), with generally good penetration, but 8 deck. Very winnable, especially in the HL rooms (6 deck), except it's pretty sweaty in there.

The reason I don't quite stand out THAT much now is that I try to limit my wonging to wonging out. Most of the time I will play through shoes while wonging out at TC =< -1. I will spread up to 20:1 in a given situation, but it will depend on the vibe I'm getting from the resident PC. Obviously if I don't think they're sweating my play, I'll spread to what I think I can get away with with.

Ultimately, the point of this thread was to ask if it would be a reasonable idea to give up my some of my green action EV to play a +EV red chip unrated game (which this store could probably care less about) and keep the majority of my comps (which are very substantial), all while increasing my longevity at the store.

Thanks for the info James, I read the chapter and it helped.

Thanks for the replies all.