POLL: DO you have or intend to buy Beyond Counting II

[WRX]

For example, though what he wrote about it makes perfect sense, I have yet to find an exploitable Big 6 wheel.

Either you're in the wrong city, or you really, really aren't paying attention.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

The trouble with that counting play is that you're talking about a 1% AVERAGE advantage. The majority of hands you're playing at a disadvantage, unless you're wonging (as you should), in which case you get nowhere close to 80 hands per hour. Bankroll limitations, nominal or practical table limits, Kelly betting considerations, and practical limits on spread are going to limit how much you're able to bet in favorable situations, which don't come along all that often to begin with. This is very detrimental to the total action per hour that you'll be able to get down in positive counts. Any action you're forced to give in negative counts bleeds money.

It's still a 1%-1.5% advantage weighted per dollar. The advantage on the 1-card game is also an average advantage and you will also be playing at a disadvantage for most hands. In 3CP particularly all of your advantage is tied up in the bonus hands and you can play a long, long time without seeing one, and all those hands are -EV. You can compare it to BJ in that we also lose more hands than we win even with an advantage, but naturals and successful double downs are a lot more common than SF's and trips!

HC games also have the disadvantage of not always being available or consuming a lot time to find, especially if you want to play two hands to give yourself a little bit of a break from the variance.

The limitation for most of us is bankroll and in no way can you play the same average bet in a 1-card 3CP game as you can in BJ. So I wouldn't recommend that to anyone unless their BR is so big they can't get down suitable max bets in the BJ environment they have available. Or maybe you can find heads-up carnival games, that helps a lot too (as does heads-up BJ.) Other than that, sorry, but the math does not support playing that particular game full-time as a substitute for counting BJ. A few full-timers have found this out the hard way. Other carnival games can be better but the advantages harder to find.

 

[Sonny]

The limitation for most of us is bankroll and in no way can you play the same average bet in a 1-card 3CP game as you can in BJ.

Check your PMs.

-Sonny-