Popping my AP cherry.

[Rspeirsmlb]

So last week I had my "practice round" of backcounting and getting a good feel for what I need to improve on for my game in a live casino environment. Tonight I'm staying at a casino and am strictly backcounting and am logging in my first REAL session!!! I'm extremely excited, and am having my ex girlfriend (I told her if she even thinks about getting back together with me she better help me backcount until I make some profit......[is that mean?!!]) :laugh: backcount with me. It's also good for cover...I'm shooting for the "she just likes to watch" act...and if the count goes +.....then oops, I might as well play for a bit. For all of you other AP players playing tonight...I hope the positive variance cupid shoots you with his arrow. Wish me luck! :grin:

Game playing: 6D, DOA, DAS, No resplitting aces, H17 (blah) 75% pen.

Counting system: KO preferred (wonging and exit wonging only)
-2 bet 2x$50, +2 bet 2x$100, +5 bet 2x$200

Bankroll: $30,000
Trip Bankroll: $3,000 (should have brought more but couldn't get to the bank today)
Room already comped and meals will be comped already.

P.S. I'll give the results tomorrow morning when I come back.

 

[The Stork]

forget those -2 bets

Sir, to save you some money

go into the shoe only when your pivat got to 0. That is the point where you
also use True edge refinements. If you play with that money you better know exactly what your edge is. Formula is RC/2x decks in play.

When your running is 8 and 2.5 decks is played than you multiply 3.5x2=7
makes 8/7 means your advantage climbed 1 percent Remember that at 0 you have about a 1/2 percentage advantage. So that means 1.5% It will give you more security and if you ever decide to bet kelly, you can bet 1/4 kelly.


If your cover is your girlfriend try to playing while impressing here and smack those big bets on the table. Standing behind the table long time looks to suspicious. If you are in Vegas.. Go play hit and run tactic.


Wishing you well,

The Stork

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Formula is RC/2x decks in play.
When your running is 8 and 2.5 decks is played than you multiply 3.5x2=7
makes 8/7 means your advantage climbed 1 percent

Did you mean 3.5 decks in play?

So RC/(2 x amount of decks) = my advantage/disadvatage? Is the adjustment because of the H17 rule? What about the insurance count and all my other index plays.....would those change as well?! I'm confused. Wouldn't this change my exit points? So I basically only have a Pivot point (0)...and no key count?
What would you recommend my betting scheme to be adjusted to? Thanks for the advice....Good thing for the blizzard tonight and my low profile tires.....cause roads are too bad to drive on and I'll take in the advice you have for me!!!

 

[EasyRhino]

That's a pretty serious bankroll to commit for this AP thing. Do you usually throw around that much money gambling?

Stork, are you talking about Arnie Snyder's True edge stuff from blackbelt in blackjack?

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Not anymore.....I'm trying to devote myself more to AP only now. All I'm shooting for is to double my $30k bankroll....but I've decided I'm going to purchase a sim because from what I hear it's an excellent investment and is really useful...I'll hold off my first session for another month or so.

 

[The Stork]

Do not be confused to much

Red seven with and true edge gives you a much better indicater of how much to bet in correlation to optimum betting strategy. You can pul it of by running count indexes. so if you have the right numbers with you using KO nothing should change the way you do it. I guess in KO using 6 deck you - 4 is the indeed the number where you start to upgrade your bets. My apoligize. I thought for a moment you used Red Seven count. It is has been shown though that REd seven outperforms KO, and not the other way around.

If using unbalanced counts you better change to red seven. It can be found on Arnold Snyders website. He has great simulation software what you could use for any form form of rules to see what you are up to. Everything is the same comparing True edge calculation but for KO it pivot number is indeed -4 with 6decks. But again with that kind of money you better switch to highlow or use a true edge with your unbalanced count.

Hope it helped.

Stork

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Thank you stork....I thought I heard that KO outperformed Red 7 a number of times on this forum.....How would I calculate the my true edge if I stick with KO? Instead of jumping in at -4, I'm going to bet at -2. How can I calculate my edge....keeping in mind the game is H17? I've decided to put a hault on my casino play until I come up with a more persistant way to play and be more comfortable by dinking around with a sim.

 

[sagefr0g]

......................I've decided to put a hault on my casino play until I come up with a more persistant way to play and be more comfortable by dinking around with a sim.

that gives you a almost zero ROR until you come up with a more persistant way to play and find comfort dinking around with sims and all lol.
it wouldn't be easy for me to have a cavalier attitude about thirty grand.
i sometimes watch that show where the contestants try and guess what briefcase should be opened in a quest to win a million dollars. sometimes they get lucky part way through the game and find themselves with a fairly significant amount of money. the question then becomes should they risk that money in order to try and get more lol. sometimes they end up winning more money before calling the game off and sometimes they lose virtually all of what they had won. i always think that myself i'd go with the 'significant' amount and not continue the game. i guess the question boils down to losing how much is significant to any given gambler.

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Yeah I watched that show...Deal or no Deal..some of those people get greedy!!! Take $300,000 or risk it all to either get a penny or a million....Do people know what that kinda money can do?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Just some comments

I would imagine each individual has their own idea of what $300,000 would do for their quality of life. I would think there is pressure on the show to always go for more. Of course a true AP would also consider the odds or risk to reward.

On a personal note I am sitting here with a young babe and when I asked her if she would take $300,000 or go for the million she said "what are the odds?" I am thinking she could be taught some things. LOL

 

[halcyon1234]

I remember seeing a Wizard of Odds column about this, relating it (kinda) to a Kelly criterion thing. Found it:

Time for another Deal or No Deal question. Let's say after all the deals from the banker and guest appearances by Celine Dion, you're left with two suitcases, the $500,000 and the $1,000,000. The banker's offer will be slightly less than $750,000 I assume. Which would you choose? What if the two briefcase left were the $.01 and $1,000,000 one? I guess it's all a matter if you're a gambler or not, and nothing really to do with odds. The reason why I'm asking is I wonder if ANYBODY will ever win $1,000,000 (even if they've picked the magic briefcase). – Jason from Vancouver

When the prizes become life-changing amounts, the wise player should play conservatively at the expense of maximizing expected value. A good strategy should be to maximize expected happiness. A good function to measure happiness I think is the log of your total wealth. Let’s take a person with existing wealth of $100,000 who is presented with two cases of $0.01 and $1,000,000. By taking “no deal” the expected happiness is 0.5*log($100,000.01) + 0.5*log($1,100,000) = 5.520696. Let b be the bank offer where the player is indifferent to taking it.

log(b) = 5.520696
b = 105.520696
b = $331,662.50.

So this hypothetical player should be indifferent at a bank offer of $331,662.50. The lesser your wealth going into the game the more conservatively you should play. Usually in the late stages of the game the bank offers are close to expected value, sometimes a little more bit more. The only rational case where a player could win the million is if he had a lot of wealth going into the game and/or the bank offers were unusually stingy. The producers seem to like hard-working middle class people, so we're unlikely to see somebody who can afford to be cavalier when large amounts are involved. I have also never seen the bank make offers under 90% of expected value late in the game. The time when we will see somebody win the million is when a degenerate gambler gets on the show who can't stop. When that happens I will be rooting for the banker. August 9, 2006

2nd question at http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard/tvgames.html

 

[zengrifter]

I've decided I'm going to purchase a sim because from what I hear it's an excellent investment and is really useful...I'll hold off my first session for another month or so.

You do NOT need sims, you need software practice drills. zg

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

Thanks Zen. Well using KO I REALLY don't need to know anything more than I already know....correct? Other than practice, practice, practice, which is a given....I mean my basic strategy is 100% correct everytime with no hesitation, I have a spread of $50-$300 for wonging with less than a 1.5% RoR, I have all my index plays memorized, + an exit strategy, I'm working on cover strategies, (a new one well thought out and practiced before each trip), and have an expense and log sheet......I just thought that seing numbers with a sim would help me out more. I guess I don't NEED a sim, but I'de like to see some of the math/science involved in the game....I mean, besides the non-stop practice, what else do you think I need to know? I have a ton of experience playing blackjack, but am making the shift to AP only. My simple goal is to double my bankroll and quit for awhile. Not by any means am I saying I have nothing to learn, I'll learn alot from playing, but does anyone else have any SINCERE suggestions? I'm trying to learn and be one of you guys, not try to show off skill and be a big dog. I just want to know if what I already know and have as a strategy will work, or fail. Thanks!

 

[zengrifter]

Thanks Zen. Well using KO I REALLY don't need to know anything more than I already know....correct? Other than practice, practice, practice, which is a given....I mean my basic strategy is 100% correct everytime with no hesitation, I have a spread of $50-$300 for wonging with less than a 1.5% RoR, I have all my index plays memorized, + an exit strategy, I'm working on cover strategies, (a new one well thought out and practiced before each trip), and have an expense and log sheet......I just thought that seing numbers with a sim would help me out more. I guess I don't NEED a sim, but I'de like to see some of the math/science involved in the game....I mean, besides the non-stop practice, what else do you think I need to know? I have a ton of experience playing blackjack, but am making the shift to AP only. My simple goal is to double my bankroll and quit for awhile. Not by any means am I saying I have nothing to learn, I'll learn alot from playing, but does anyone else have any SINCERE suggestions? I'm trying to learn and be one of you guys, not try to show off skill and be a big dog. I just want to know if what I already know and have as a strategy will work, or fail. Thanks!

Start playing now, perhaps with a smaller bet size for the first 40-hrs. Time to play, Grasshopper. And keep drilling hard with software. zg

 

[sagefr0g]

....... I just want to know if what I already know and have as a strategy will work, or fail. Thanks!

you need to look deeper Grasshoper (lol) before you risk that 30G.
a sim can give you greater insight into your game plan.
get some practice software. play as many N0's as you can for a while using your game plan and see how you do.
are you prepared to lose the 30G ? even if a sim shows you have an optimal game plan you may reach your goal or you may face ruin.

 

[EasyRhino]

There are two giant concerns when considering taking up counting:

1) The ability to maintain technical proficiency in a casino environment.

2) Financial and emotional fortitude to handle the swings.

For point number 2, as someone who currently has a $30k bankroll (which used to be $40k), I would strongly warn against playing with such a bankroll when you're just starting, unless you already gamble with that much money, and are merely looking to get an advantage. But if you're at the stage where you think that winning or losing $1000 is a big deal, then you're about to get your mind blown.

 

[SystemsTrader]

Thanks Zen. Well using KO I REALLY don't need to know anything more than I already know....correct? Other than practice, practice, practice, which is a given....I mean my basic strategy is 100% correct everytime with no hesitation, I have a spread of $50-$300 for wonging with less than a 1.5% RoR, I have all my index plays memorized, + an exit strategy, I'm working on cover strategies, (a new one well thought out and practiced before each trip), and have an expense and log sheet......I just thought that seing numbers with a sim would help me out more. I guess I don't NEED a sim, but I'de like to see some of the math/science involved in the game....I mean, besides the non-stop practice, what else do you think I need to know? I have a ton of experience playing blackjack, but am making the shift to AP only. My simple goal is to double my bankroll and quit for awhile. Not by any means am I saying I have nothing to learn, I'll learn alot from playing, but does anyone else have any SINCERE suggestions? I'm trying to learn and be one of you guys, not try to show off skill and be a big dog. I just want to know if what I already know and have as a strategy will work, or fail. Thanks!

Learning should be a never ending quest. There is always more to learn, for instance even with even KO you could learn the full indexes or to true count it which makes it one of the most powerful level one systems. But first master the level you are at before moving up. As for sim software it is a must if you are a serious player. Especially with an account your size. Before I bought sim software I was drastically underbetting in positive situations. The software will also help you adjust your betting when you run into casinos with different table min and max's while controlling your risk. The software will pay for itself. The bet spreads you are currently using were created with software . Sim software is also a bit of a wake up call as it may show you that blackjack may not be one of the best investments out there for you. But that is up to the individual to decide.

 

[ChefJJ]

And keep drilling hard with software. zg

ZG - Do you have any specific software programs in mind for drills...not necessarily for sims?

 

[Automatic Monkey]

you need to look deeper Grasshoper (lol) before you risk that 30G.
a sim can give you greater insight into your game plan.
get some practice software. play as many N0's as you can for a while using your game plan and see how you do.
are you prepared to lose the 30G ? even if a sim shows you have an optimal game plan you may reach your goal or you may face ruin.

Yeah I vote for the sim. You can play without it, but the sim gives you a nice picture of the effects of all the nuances like risk of ruin, effect of pen, fooling around with different spreads and changes in rules. Once you know what you want to do you can use the sim to adjust your game plan to best suit your own needs.

 

[Rspeirsmlb]

My bankroll used to be $40k until I decided to invest 10k into something else. I'm purchasing a sim this week, which one do you recommend?.....Thanks SystemsTrader, for the bet spreads.... I'll use them eventually....when I'm more prepared. You all are right, it does make sense to risk less money to start. Maybe I'll start with a $5k bankroll...I'll wait until I dink around with a sim and come up with something good.