Probability

[Sage]

Yesterday sat down at a table, bought in for 20 units and lost the first 15 in a row. [TC was 0 to 1 ]Then moved to another table and won 1 bet and lost the rest for a total loss of 20 units, with only 1 win, in under 20 minutes
What is the probability of such a loss?

 

[kewljason]

Yesterday sat down at a table, bought in for 20 units and lost the first 15 in a row. [TC was 0 to 1 ]Then moved to another table and won 1 bet and lost the rest for a total loss of 20 units, with only 1 win, in under 20 minutes
What is the probability of such a loss?

I don't understand such a question. Does it some how ease your pain to know that such an event is rare? Unfortunately, rare situations become the norm and you have to be prepared for them. That is the whole notion behind being properly bankrolled.

But take heart, there is a lesson to be learned from such a run and that is why we don't martingale. If you were martingaling beginning with a $10 wager, you wager on the 15th hand would have been $163,840. And you would have lost that wager too! :laugh: (hypothetical of course)

 

[prankster]

Stuff happens!:joker:

 

[BrianCP]

This is what it means to have a 47% RoR with a 20 unit buy in. I am planning on buying in for 20 units in a week or two, but with the realization that it could vanish very quickly.

 

[Renzey]

Yesterday sat down at a table, bought in for 20 units and lost the first 15 in a row. [TC was 0 to 1 ]Then moved to another table and won 1 bet and lost the rest for a total loss of 20 units, with only 1 win, in under 20 minutes
What is the probability of such a loss?

It's "Laugh at Renzey" time: Once quite a few years back, at a store I played frequently, I percieved I was garnering close scrutiny. It was a great 6 deck game -- S17, DOA, DAS, RSA and LS with a 1 deck cutoff. Wanting to protect my welcome mat, I decided that playing flat minimum bets in the H/L room at the NMS $100 table for an hour while making a cluster of carefully chosen, low cost camo hand plays would give me a heads up EV of around -$60. It seemed like it should be money well spent if it could massage my image into an acceptable one for them. At the end of the first shoe (about 10 minutes), I was stuck $3300. I was indeed heads up, which meant my record during that shoe had to be about 8 & 40, not counting pushes. I aborted the 1 hour plan.

 

[21gunsalute]

Yesterday sat down at a table, bought in for 20 units and lost the first 15 in a row. [TC was 0 to 1 ]Then moved to another table and won 1 bet and lost the rest for a total loss of 20 units, with only 1 win, in under 20 minutes
What is the probability of such a loss?

If you live in my world...about 50%!

 

[creeping panther]

Sage

Yesterday sat down at a table, bought in for 20 units and lost the first 15 in a row. [TC was 0 to 1 ]Then moved to another table and won 1 bet and lost the rest for a total loss of 20 units, with only 1 win, in under 20 minutes
What is the probability of such a loss?

In my over 15 years of AP play I have never had such an occurence. Some will say it is to be expected,,that it will happen,,,I have chosen to not allow it to happen to me,,,,do not accept it, and do not expect it,,,the game is of SKILLZ,,,,not skills.

CP

 

[sagefr0g]

lets just say sage lost 20 units and had zero wins, maybe had some pushes in as many bets (say 25 bets) to make it easy....... and errhh we don't know the rules or really how he was betting, lets just say h17daslsr and flat betting.
such an occurrence has far as i know a zero percent probability.

 

[Sage]

I played H17, das,rsa,ls, flat betting one unit and played BS wih no pushes the entire 20 units. Two other players broke about even $$ in the shoe.

I like creeping panther's comments. Don't see it happening to you!

In one session, I buy in for multiple 20 units.
In the second buy in I won 2 units.
After that I went home!:laugh:

 

[kewljason]

In my over 15 years of AP play I have never has such an occurence. Some will say it is to be expected,,that it will happen,,,I have chosen to not allow it to happen to me,,,,do not accept it, and do not expect it,,,the game is of SKILLZ,,,,not skills.

CP

All hail CP! The great and powerful oz! Do you win every hand?? And if not why not? Why have you not chosen to disallow any losses? Why do you accept any losses? A player with your amazing SKILLZ should be in the 100% club.

 

[The Chaperone]

It's sometimes hard to know because you usually aren't planning on counting consecutive wins/losses until after the fact. That being said, I do think I have lost about 17 hands in a row one one or two occasions. This would be more rare than losing 20 out of 21 or whatever it is you describe (prolly less than that since I assume, you had some double downs).

I've played a lot. Some weird things I've seen over the years are:

3 straight un-insurable dealer BJs (twice)
4 straight dealer BJs (twice, most recently with 2 max bets out on each round. good times)
I have had 4 straight BJs on my own hand but only with min bets.

The craziest thing I ever saw was a dealer at a place with 20 minute downs drawing A23456 to make 21 (not in that order obv), and then when she came back for her 20 minutes later in the night, she did it *again*. I have never seen this hand before or since, but this same dealer did it twice in 40 minutes one night.

 

[kewljason]

It's sometimes hard to know because you usually aren't planning on counting consecutive wins/losses until after the fact. That being said, I do think I have lost about 17 hands in a row one one or two occasions. This would be more rare than losing 20 out of 21 or whatever it is you describe (prolly less than that since I assume, you had some double downs).

I was kind of thinking this same thing, Chaperone. I know I have lost double digit hands in a row many times. I have no idea how many. You don't even start thinking about something like that until you have lost 7 or 8 in a row. Makes me want to disagree with sagefrog's assessment of zero probability.

 

[creeping panther]

Kj

All hail CP! The great and powerful oz! Do you win every hand?? And if not why not? Why have you not chosen to disallow any losses? Why do you accept any losses? A player with your amazing SKILLZ should be in the 100% club.

That is SKILLZ, get it right.

Also, the last thing I ever do is accept any loss, and I would advise that no one else does either, for to do so is truly a sign of weakness.


CP

 

[Coach R]

Yesterday sat down at a table, bought in for 20 units and lost the first 15 in a row. [TC was 0 to 1 ]Then moved to another table and won 1 bet and lost the rest for a total loss of 20 units, with only 1 win, in under 20 minutes
What is the probability of such a loss?

In your case, I would say about 100%

 

[Sage]

Thanks for all the comments
Some time ago I recall reading somewhere what the % probability of various number of hands won & lost in a row. Just thought it would be fun to know how I bucked the odds :cool2:

 

[Thunder]

That is SKILLZ, get it right.

Also, the last thing I ever do is accept any loss, and I would advise that no one else does either, for to do so is truly a sign of weakness.


CP

CP, do you classify HCing as Skillz??? That's realistically the only way you're going to be able to prevent double digit hand losses happening to you at some point.

 

[HockeXpert]

CP, do you classify HCing as Skillz??? That's realistically the only way you're going to be able to prevent double digit hand losses happening to you at some point.

SKILLZ can stil be trumped by luck in the short run. On two occasions I have had double digit losing hands in a row while hc'ing. What doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.

 

[Thunder]

Hockexpert, when you can't beat the casino while doing that, it's time to reassess just how awful your luck is

 

[HockeXpert]

Hockexpert, when you can't beat the casino while doing that, it's time to reassess just how awful your luck is

I'm blessed to have good luck in other facets of my life and the pendulum has swung hard in the opposite direction for me as well. Like Chaperone, I too have seen 3 ten up dealer bj's in a row on two occasions.

 

[gronbog]

Thanks for all the comments
Some time ago I recall reading somewhere what the % probability of various number of hands won & lost in a row. Just thought it would be fun to know how I bucked the odds :cool2:

For the exact outcome of 15 losses + 1 win + 6 losses it is approximately:

(.49 to the power of 15) x .43 x (.49 to the power of 6)

which is 0.000000134 or 1 in 7,454,533.

For 21 losses and 1 win with no pushes, in general, we multiply the previous result by the number of permutations, which is 21 to get 0.000002817 or 1 in 354,978.

My own record for consecutively lost hands is 23 in a row.