Problem with HIgh Counts

[brett877]

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

 

[matt21]

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

hey brett877
this is simply due to the small sample size that you have accumulated so far. in the short run anything can happen. if you ran this stuff 1 billion times then you would find that you would, on average, make more money at the higher counts, although you would probably win/lose/push around the same amount of hands, but get more because of successful double downs and splits.

so to re-iterate, nothing is going wrong. it's purely short-run fluctuations.

maybe consider investing in a blackjack software (i use CVBJ and CVD) to study this more - you will get away with about $200.

hope that helps.

 

[creeping panther]

Brett

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

This is a regular occurence, you must accept it. I place great value on LS, in fact it is the greatest tool, I believe, to minimize negative variance. I am also a firm believer in the Floating Advantage as discussed in rare articles and Don's book, BJ Attack. You must also use heavy indice play, remember in those super high counts if the dealer flips anything less than a pat hand they may end up busting, they have to hit you do not. Also do not be afraid in those super high counts to split 10;s and double those soft 20's, play like a "BJ WARRIOR", but be ready to accept GLORY with the wins and be gracious and cool with the losses.

CP

 

[KOLAN]

Any ideas why, when me and my cousin have a high count of +15 or above we seem to lose alot more often then when the count is say, 8 or 9? There would be around 2-3 decks left and the count would soar, but we would seem to lose alot. Any ideas as to where we might be going wrong? I dont believe that our count is off because there is a **** ton of high cards that come out and we havent been for the +-1 off in a long time at the end of a shoe. (we practice with a 6 deck shoe)

just tray dont take card if you got 15 ,16 vs 9,10

 

[EasyRhino]

I think Peter Griffin wrote something in Theory of Blackjack that stupendously high counts really weren't proportionally more helpful to the player. TOO many T's and A's caused some anomalies I can't quite think of. But again, we're talking extreme counts.

Another thing in those high counts you've seen.... do the high cards ever start coming out? If a count goes high and stays high, it means the cards you're playing are still basically neutral. Either you got unlucky and the high cards stayed behind the cut card, or you're playing with a tampered shoe.

 

[winr_winr_chicken_dinner!]

I think Peter Griffin wrote something in Theory of Blackjack that stupendously high counts really weren't proportionally more helpful to the player. TOO many T's and A's caused some anomalies I can't quite think of. But again, we're talking extreme counts.

Another thing in those high counts you've seen.... do the high cards ever start coming out? If a count goes high and stays high, it means the cards you're playing are still basically neutral. Either you got unlucky and the high cards stayed behind the cut card, or you're playing with a tampered shoe.

A lot of new players should note this... It can happen with a skilled dealer/shuffler. You need to be able to recognize it quickly and run before you start betting huge and chasing big cards that aren't there.

 

[Renzey]

I think Peter Griffin wrote something in Theory of Blackjack that stupendously high counts really weren't proportionally more helpful to the player. TOO many T's and A's caused some anomalies I can't quite think of. But again, we're talking extreme counts.

The highest supply of big cards I can think of is a pinochle deck. The lowest card in the whole pack is a 9 and the Hi/Lo TC is +43!

Now play out say, 50 hands with that deck. You'll never bust, but the dealer will usually bust with A/A. Always take Insurance and Even Money, always split 10's against a 9, and always double with A/9 against a 9. There'll be plenty of pushes, but the player will seldom lose a hand. I ran a very quick 1 million hand sim. The player's EV was +26%.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

A lot of new players should note this... It can happen with a skilled dealer/shuffler. You need to be able to recognize it quickly and run before you start betting huge and chasing big cards that aren't there.

How can a skilled dealer/shuffler predict where the player is going to stick the cut card?

 

[mathman]

Possibly this is considered voodoo but.....

Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer:devil: is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM

 

[creeping panther]

Mathman

Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer:devil: is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM

I agree with your approach and am very impressed with your ability to think outside the box. It is this ability that I believe great battlefield Generals are blessed with.

You are indeed going to fit right in with the MMOA.

CP

 

[mathman]

Thanks CP (as always)

Sending a small amount of soldiers ahead to mix in the trees and size up the enemy is always better than having your entire force stand shoulder to shoulder and walk into an ambush.lol........JtMM

 

[Bojack1]

Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer:devil: is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM

You are indeed skirting voodoo theory here. But the premise you base it on is correct. Even thinking about other bad players getting the good cards and winning when you are counting and losing, suggests voodoo and lack of confidence in skill and the math probabilities that come with quantitive numbers. Walking away from a shoe based on losing when you feel you should be winning, when you haven't gathered justifiable evidence to the reasoning will kill your game eventually.

However, observation as noted, is a different story. Following and or tracking cards will give you the information that is needed many times into what may occur next shoe based on the previous shoe. What is needed here though is not a guess based on superficial results, but a skilled breakdown of the previous shoe and the shuffle of it. As I have stated before, being able to track large amounts of the shuffle can give you either a very nice edge, or the knowledge to know when to walk away.

On a side note, if you are playing 8 deck shoes and want to play a strong game, you should not be sitting at one table long enough to feel the effects of bad shoe after bad shoe. The only players that should be sitting at one table for multiple shoes in a row are those that can track with accuracy and have gained the necessary info that leads them to sit longer.

 

[sagefr0g]

might be voodoo but brings up an interesting question

Brett,
Are you playing eight decks? This phenomenon seems to happen more with eight decks. Playing a shoe with caution at first, sometimes will give you a clue as to what to expect in the next shoe. Through experience I've run into cards that slowly work there way up in count, then plateau and bounce around a high number for several hands. This is dangerous to the card counter because when it freezes and bounces around the same high count you are getting stiff hands. At some point the count will fall, sometimes rapidly, that is when your bets will pay off. Being aware of the type of shoe you are playing helps in these situations.

Occasionally these shoes aren't playable for several shuffles because they slowly work there way up and slowly work there way back down again. The player and the dealer get stiffs the whole way up and back down again and it is more difficult to make a profit during those times. This is when card counting becomes very frustrating, you have high counts, you're betting more, standing more often, and doubling and splitting yields results as if you were in a negative count. Meanwhile the dealer:devil: is still able to make those fishy 3 or 4 card 21's etc. when they should bust. This is also the time when the other player, who doesn't play very well, wins more hands when they hit and stand by thier "gut" and that adds insult to injury for the card counter. I've found that when you experience these types of cards you may be better off walking away to let them be shuffled a few more times. Playing the first shoe with caution and your "eyes open" helps to gain an insight as to what you have to work with the next shoe.

I realize this explanation sounds like voodoo but playing blackjack isn't always the way the book tells you it should be. Playing with your eyes open helps you to lose less money and that means you end up winning more....JtMM

i'm not a pro, but i think i know what a pro would say. "play those positive count packs, just "shut those eyes, lol and do it", something like that. point being just go for that positive EV and over the long haul you probably wont get ruined and you'll probably make money. never not put that money on the line when the time is probably ripe, even if the time might not really be ripe, lol. like in watermelon harvest time, if the time is right, the vine withered and that thumping sound is right put that baby in the truck for market. :eyepatch:
so but maybe if in a misspent youth one spent enough time on the far side of the barn with a sliced open melon found to be rotten inside even after passing the test of time, vine inspection and thumping that you'd have to weigh the DI of going back out to get another sweet one against the danger of the sting of rock salt coming ones way. lol.
so maybe when you grew up and farmed watermelons, you'd maybe be a good judge of ones ready for market.

what ever i know not being a pro and not playing so much as a pro does that it's tempting to think about that 0.448% W/L and wonder if a little street smarts might could help the situation or if nothing else not hurt it so bad.
in the end it seems that element of mystery is always gonna be there, can one beat with street smarts whats optimal and if so for how long?

 

[EasyRhino]

Temporarily, ignoring produce analogies, if you've found yourself confronted with a high count, then play it. The only reason would be if you had some OTHER reason to suspect that bad cards are ahead, because you've been shuffle tracking, or because you have evidence to indicate that you're playing a tampered game.

Neither of these things are true, so place the damn bets.

 

[mathman]

I found this site and was immediately impressed by the knowledge available here and the amount of intelligent players. As some here know I learned this game in the trench's so allot of my decisions are based in experience not books. This is not to say I haven't since read books and everything else I could get my eyes on to educate myself in the game of 21, including this site.

I will never pretend or fool myself into thinking I have all the right answers. I believe in card counting and the math, and I trust in both but I also believe in my own observations. I've played this game every way I think it possibly can be played and can only reflect on what has produced the most, consistent profit. Being observant and adjusting my decisions based on table conditions and rules has served me the best during my career. All of my decisions are based in card counting however I've learned that blindly betting doesn't always produce positive results. Paying attention to the condition of the deck and learning to walk away from certain situations has produced happier trips back home. I usually can find something useful in almost every deck but sometimes it's just not there so it's best to allow that deck to change through shuffles and visit again later. If I do find something useful then I shuffle track it and try to capitalize on it in the next shoe.

This game has never become boring to me. I enjoy thinking about ways I can improve my outcome. I also enjoy reading all of the posts here and have learned quite a bit from several of the players here. I believe that no one of us should stop trying to improve their game and that means there is more to it than just the book....JtMM

 

[winr_winr_chicken_dinner!]

How can a skilled dealer/shuffler predict where the player is going to stick the cut card?

A lot of people get in the habit of cutting the same way over and over, you see it all the time. If the dealer knows how the player will cut, it can happen...